Card Statistics

Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.

Card Screener

Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price, with value against bet365 where the odds are in.

Smart views

319 matches · best line per match

Upcoming matches with recent cards hit rates and model value
	Line	Odds						L15
Defensor SportingRacingTomorrow 23:00 · Primera DivisionRef: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	51%1.95	–	5.7	80%8/10	80%16/20	70%21/30
ThunHajduk SplitToday 19:00 · Europa Conference LeagueRef Jarred Gillett · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.89	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	57%1.77	–	4.0ref −0.5	80%8/10	70%14/20	70%21/30
LillestrømReal SociedadToday 19:00 · Europa LeagueRef Mohammad Al Emara · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.85	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	56%1.79	–	4.0ref −0.7	60%6/10	70%14/20	70%19/27
ComoSassuoloSat 13:00 · Serie ARef Davide Di Marco · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.94	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.82	–	3.9ref −0.3	80%8/10	70%14/20	63%19/30
ChapecoenseFluminenseSat 22:30 · Serie ARef Anderson Daronco · 5.1 cards/match · ×1.15	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	54%1.87	–	5.9ref +0.8	50%5/10	70%14/20	63%19/30
Chengdu RongchengDalian YingboSat 07:30 · Super LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	53%1.88	–	4.8	70%7/10	70%14/20	63%19/30
Jagiellonia BiałystokAnderlechtToday 19:00 · Europa LeagueRef Ondřej Berka · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.85	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	53%1.89	–	3.8ref −0.7	80%8/10	70%14/20	63%19/30
Al Shamal SCQatar SCTomorrow 14:30 · Stars LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	47%2.12	–	5.5	60%6/10	70%14/20	63%19/30
SiriusAIKSat 13:00 · AllsvenskanRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	57%1.77	–	4.0	70%7/10	65%13/20	60%18/30
PauGrenoble Foot 38Tomorrow 18:00 · Ligue 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.81	–	3.9	60%6/10	65%13/20	60%18/30
Rayo VallecanoElcheSat 12:00 · La LigaRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	54%1.85	–	4.9	80%8/10	65%13/20	60%18/30
LeganésMallorcaSat 14:15 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	53%1.87	–	4.9	70%7/10	65%13/20	63%19/30
BotoşaniPetrolul 52Tomorrow 15:00 · SuperligaRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	53%1.87	–	4.8	70%7/10	65%13/20	67%20/30
DC UnitedCincinnatiSat 23:30 · Major League SoccerRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	53%1.90	–	4.8	90%9/10	65%13/20	57%17/30
JuventusRennesToday 16:45 · Europa LeagueRef Morten Krogh · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.93	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	50%2.01	–	3.7ref −0.3	50%5/10	65%13/20	57%17/30
AntwerpSporting CharleroiSat 14:00 · Pro LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	49%2.04	–	4.6	60%6/10	65%13/20	57%17/30
Deportivo AlavésMálagaTomorrow 19:00 · La LigaRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	45%2.20	–	4.4	60%6/10	65%13/20	53%16/30
Omonia NicosiaBenficaToday 19:00 · Europa LeagueRef Jasper Vergoote · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.86	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	39%2.54	–	4.1ref −0.7	70%7/10	63%12/19	63%15/24
Oxford UnitedBradford CitySat 14:00 · League OneRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	57%1.77	–	4.0	50%5/10	60%12/20	60%18/30
BarnetOldham AthleticSat 14:00 · League TwoRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	56%1.77	–	4.0	70%7/10	60%12/20	60%18/30
Akhmat GroznyOrenburgTomorrow 16:30 · Premier LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	56%1.78	–	4.0	40%4/10	60%12/20	53%16/30
FC KölnSchalke 04Sat 13:30 · BundesligaRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	56%1.79	–	4.0	70%7/10	60%12/20	57%17/30
ReadingBarnsleySat 14:00 · League OneRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	56%1.79	–	4.0	50%5/10	60%12/20	53%16/30
Borussia DortmundEintracht FrankfurtSat 16:30 · BundesligaRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.82	–	3.9	60%6/10	60%12/20	47%14/30
KrasnodarBaltika KaliningradSat 16:30 · Premier LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	55%1.83	–	4.9	50%5/10	60%12/20	53%16/30
Union Saint-GilloiseHapoel Be'er ShevaToday 16:45 · Europa LeagueRef Nikolai Balakin · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.91	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	54%1.85	–	3.9ref −0.4	50%5/10	60%12/20	67%20/30
MonacoSC FreiburgToday 19:00 · Europa Conference LeagueRef Samuel Barrott · 4.3 cards/match · ×0.99	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	54%1.85	–	3.9	70%7/10	60%12/20	60%18/30
Rubin KazanKrylya SovetovSat 14:15 · Premier LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	53%1.89	–	4.8	70%7/10	60%12/20	53%16/30
AlmeríaReal OviedoSat 19:00 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	52%1.93	–	4.8	50%5/10	60%12/20	60%18/30
Rheindorf AltachAustria WienTomorrow 17:30 · Admiral BundesligaRef Arnes Talic · 4.7 cards/match · ×1.05	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	52%1.94	–	4.8ref +0.2	50%5/10	60%12/20	57%17/30
CórdobaSD EibarSat 12:00 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	51%1.97	–	4.7	70%7/10	60%12/20	63%19/30
Preston North EndWest Bromwich AlbionSat 14:00 · ChampionshipRef Elliot Bell · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.90	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	50%1.99	–	3.7ref −0.4	70%7/10	60%12/20	57%17/30
SantosBahiaSun 00:00 · Serie ARef Savio Pereira Sampaio · 4.7 cards/match · ×1.07	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	50%2.01	–	5.7ref +0.4	90%9/10	60%12/20	53%16/30
CF MontréalNashville SCSat 17:30 · Major League SoccerRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	49%2.04	–	4.6	70%7/10	60%12/20	53%16/30
Central EspañolAlbionSat 13:00 · Primera DivisionRef: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	49%2.05	–	5.6	80%8/10	60%12/20	57%17/30
Odisha FCNorthEast UnitedSat 14:00 · Indian Super LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	48%2.08	–	4.6	70%7/10	60%12/20	56%14/25
Lech PoznańSunderlandToday 16:45 · Europa LeagueRef Balazs Berke · 2.6 cards/match · ×0.82	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	48%2.09	–	3.6ref −0.8	60%6/10	60%12/20	67%20/30
Torpedo MoskvaRotor VolgogradTomorrow 15:00 · FNLRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	47%2.11	–	4.5	70%7/10	60%12/20	60%18/30
BeşiktaşCrystal PalaceToday 19:00 · Europa LeagueRef Danny Desmond Makkelie · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.84	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	46%2.17	–	3.5ref −0.7	60%6/10	60%12/20	53%16/30
Racing SantanderEspanyolSat 14:15 · La LigaRef: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	43%2.30	–	5.3	60%6/10	60%12/20	63%19/30
VitesseFC EmmenTomorrow 18:00 · Eerste DivisieRef Martin Perez · 3.0 cards/match · ×0.79	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	42%2.37	–	3.3ref −0.9	70%7/10	60%12/20	57%17/30
Tokyo VerdyAvispa FukuokaSat 06:00 · J1 LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	53%1.90	–	3.8	50%5/10	57%8/14	57%8/14
Ipswich TownNottingham ForestTomorrow 19:00 · Premier LeagueRef Thomas Bramall · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.00	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.66 60%	57%1.74	-5%	4.1	60%6/10	55%11/20	57%17/30
BromleyPeterborough UnitedSat 14:00 · League OneRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	57%1.77	–	4.0	20%2/10	55%11/20	53%16/30
Western Sydney WanderersAucklandSat 06:00 · A-League MenRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	56%1.78	–	4.0	40%4/10	55%11/20	53%16/30
Darmstadt 98St. PauliTomorrow 16:30 · 2. BundesligaRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	56%1.78	–	4.0	70%7/10	55%11/20	50%15/30
FCSBRapid BucurestiSat 18:00 · SuperligaRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	56%1.80	–	5.0	60%6/10	55%11/20	53%16/30
Exeter CityFleetwood TownSat 14:00 · League TwoRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.80	–	3.9	60%6/10	55%11/20	43%13/30
AFC WimbledonWycombe WanderersSat 14:00 · League OneRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.80	–	3.9	50%5/10	55%11/20	50%15/30
Burton AlbionLeyton OrientSat 14:00 · League OneRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	54%1.84	–	3.9	40%4/10	55%11/20	60%18/30

Defensor SportingRacing
Tomorrow 23:00 · Primera Division
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.7 · Model 51%
L580%8/10L1080%16/20L1570%21/30
ThunHajduk Split
Today 19:00 · Europa Conference League
Ref Jarred Gillett · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.89
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 57%
L580%8/10L1070%14/20L1570%21/30
LillestrømReal Sociedad
Today 19:00 · Europa League
Ref Mohammad Al Emara · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.85
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1570%19/27
ComoSassuolo
Sat 13:00 · Serie A
Ref Davide Di Marco · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.94
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L580%8/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
ChapecoenseFluminense
Sat 22:30 · Serie A
Ref Anderson Daronco · 5.1 cards/match · ×1.15
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.9 · Model 54%
L550%5/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
Chengdu RongchengDalian Yingbo
Sat 07:30 · Super League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 53%
L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
Jagiellonia BiałystokAnderlecht
Today 19:00 · Europa League
Ref Ondřej Berka · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.85
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
L580%8/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
Al Shamal SCQatar SC
Tomorrow 14:30 · Stars League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.5 · Model 47%
L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
SiriusAIK
Sat 13:00 · Allsvenskan
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 57%
L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
PauGrenoble Foot 38
Tomorrow 18:00 · Ligue 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
Rayo VallecanoElche
Sat 12:00 · La Liga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.9 · Model 54%
L580%8/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
LeganésMallorca
Sat 14:15 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.9 · Model 53%
L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
BotoşaniPetrolul 52
Tomorrow 15:00 · Superliga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 53%
L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1567%20/30
DC UnitedCincinnati
Sat 23:30 · Major League Soccer
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 53%
L590%9/10L1065%13/20L1557%17/30
JuventusRennes
Today 16:45 · Europa League
Ref Morten Krogh · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.93
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.7 · Model 50%
L550%5/10L1065%13/20L1557%17/30
AntwerpSporting Charleroi
Sat 14:00 · Pro League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.6 · Model 49%
L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1557%17/30
Deportivo AlavésMálaga
Tomorrow 19:00 · La Liga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.4 · Model 45%
L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1553%16/30
Omonia NicosiaBenfica
Today 19:00 · Europa League
Ref Jasper Vergoote · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.86
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.1 · Model 39%
L570%7/10L1063%12/19L1563%15/24
Oxford UnitedBradford City
Sat 14:00 · League One
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 57%
L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
BarnetOldham Athletic
Sat 14:00 · League Two
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
Akhmat GroznyOrenburg
Tomorrow 16:30 · Premier League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L540%4/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
FC KölnSchalke 04
Sat 13:30 · Bundesliga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
ReadingBarnsley
Sat 14:00 · League One
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurt
Sat 16:30 · Bundesliga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1547%14/30
KrasnodarBaltika Kaliningrad
Sat 16:30 · Premier League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.9 · Model 55%
L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
Union Saint-GilloiseHapoel Be'er Sheva
Today 16:45 · Europa League
Ref Nikolai Balakin · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.91
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 54%
L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1567%20/30
MonacoSC Freiburg
Today 19:00 · Europa Conference League
Ref Samuel Barrott · 4.3 cards/match · ×0.99
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 54%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
Rubin KazanKrylya Sovetov
Sat 14:15 · Premier League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 53%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
AlmeríaReal Oviedo
Sat 19:00 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 52%
L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
Rheindorf AltachAustria Wien
Tomorrow 17:30 · Admiral Bundesliga
Ref Arnes Talic · 4.7 cards/match · ×1.05
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 52%
L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
CórdobaSD Eibar
Sat 12:00 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
Preston North EndWest Bromwich Albion
Sat 14:00 · Championship
Ref Elliot Bell · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.90
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.7 · Model 50%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
SantosBahia
Sun 00:00 · Serie A
Ref Savio Pereira Sampaio · 4.7 cards/match · ×1.07
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.7 · Model 50%
L590%9/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
CF MontréalNashville SC
Sat 17:30 · Major League Soccer
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.6 · Model 49%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
Central EspañolAlbion
Sat 13:00 · Primera Division
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.6 · Model 49%
L580%8/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
Odisha FCNorthEast United
Sat 14:00 · Indian Super League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.6 · Model 48%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1556%14/25
Lech PoznańSunderland
Today 16:45 · Europa League
Ref Balazs Berke · 2.6 cards/match · ×0.82
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.6 · Model 48%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1567%20/30
Torpedo MoskvaRotor Volgograd
Tomorrow 15:00 · FNL
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.5 · Model 47%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
BeşiktaşCrystal Palace
Today 19:00 · Europa League
Ref Danny Desmond Makkelie · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.84
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.5 · Model 46%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
Racing SantanderEspanyol
Sat 14:15 · La Liga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.3 · Model 43%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
VitesseFC Emmen
Tomorrow 18:00 · Eerste Divisie
Ref Martin Perez · 3.0 cards/match · ×0.79
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.3 · Model 42%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
Tokyo VerdyAvispa Fukuoka
Sat 06:00 · J1 League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
L550%5/10L1057%8/14L1557%8/14
Ipswich TownNottingham Forest
Tomorrow 19:00 · Premier League
Ref Thomas Bramall · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.00
1.66
-5%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.1 · Model 57%
L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
BromleyPeterborough United
Sat 14:00 · League One
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 57%
L520%2/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30
Western Sydney WanderersAuckland
Sat 06:00 · A-League Men
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30
Darmstadt 98St. Pauli
Tomorrow 16:30 · 2. Bundesliga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L570%7/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
FCSBRapid Bucuresti
Sat 18:00 · Superliga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.0 · Model 56%
L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30
Exeter CityFleetwood Town
Sat 14:00 · League Two
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1543%13/30
AFC WimbledonWycombe Wanderers
Sat 14:00 · League One
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
Burton AlbionLeyton Orient
Sat 14:00 · League One
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 54%
L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1560%18/30

Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.7 to ×1.4); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 22 Oct, 08:48.

Referees this week — strictest first

Referee	Matches	Cards / match	Effect	Next match	Exp. cards
Darío Herrera	45	6.2	×1.35	Argentinos JuniorsvIndependiente RivadaviaTue 22:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.3 → 7.1
Sebastián Nicolás Martínez	26	6.3	×1.33	Gimnasia La PlatavSarmientoTomorrow 21:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.5 → 7.3
Flavio Rodrigues De Souza	45	5.9	×1.30	SantosvPalmeirasWed 22:30 · Serie A	5.0 → 6.4
Andrés Merlos	31	5.9	×1.28	Barracas CentralvEstudiantes de Río CuartoMon 00:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.1 → 6.5
Yael Falcón Pérez	51	5.8	×1.27	Rosario CentralvHuracánSun 00:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.4 → 6.8
Luis Lobo Medina	30	5.9	×1.27	San LorenzovNewell's Old BoysSat 22:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.1 → 6.5
Paulo Cesar Zanovelli	40	5.8	×1.27	AvaívBotafogo SPSat 19:00 · Serie B	5.0 → 6.3
Nazareno Arasa	32	5.9	×1.27	IndependientevBoca JuniorsSun 20:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.2 → 6.6
Halil Umut Meler	42	5.8	×1.26	TSG HoffenheimvOlympique LyonnaisToday 19:00 · Europa League	4.2 → 5.3
Atilla Karaoğlan	30	5.9	×1.26	GetafevLuganoToday 16:45 · Europa Conference League	5.3 → 6.7
Lucas Paulo Torezin	35	5.7	×1.25	RemovBotafogoThu 00:30 · Serie A	4.7 → 5.9
Felipe Fernandes de Lima	37	5.7	×1.24	Sport RecifevCriciúmaSat 00:00 · Serie B	5.1 → 6.4
Bruno Mota Correia	5	7.4	×1.24	JuventudevNáuticoMon 23:30 · Serie B	5.0 → 6.1
Alex Gomes Stefano	36	5.6	×1.23	São BernardovVila NovaSat 19:30 · Serie B	5.3 → 6.5
Bruno Arleu de Araujo	42	5.5	×1.22	CruzeirovRemoTomorrow 23:00 · Serie A	4.8 → 5.8
Wilton Pereira Sampaio	49	5.4	×1.21	Vasco da GamavCorinthiansSat 21:30 · Serie A	4.7 → 5.7
Andris Treimanis	14	5.9	×1.20	Sporting BragavGentToday 19:00 · Europa Conference League	4.7 → 5.6
Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes	35	5.4	×1.20	BragantinovChapecoenseWed 22:30 · Serie A	4.8 → 5.8
André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento	30	5.4	×1.19	VitóriavAthletico PRSat 19:30 · Serie A	5.3 → 6.4
Georgi Kabakov	32	5.4	×1.19	CelticvCelta de VigoToday 19:00 · Europa League	4.2 → 5.0
Fabio Maresca	23	5.4	×1.18	LeccevJuventusSun 17:00 · Serie A	3.6 → 4.3
John Brooks	28	5.3	×1.17	CeljevSalzburgToday 19:00 · Europa League	4.2 → 4.9
Afro Rocha de Carvalho Filho	27	5.3	×1.17	CRBvLondrinaSat 21:30 · Serie B	5.1 → 5.9
Ramon Abatti	39	5.2	×1.16	CoritibavGrêmioMon 22:30 · Serie A	5.1 → 5.9
David Dickinson	30	5.3	×1.16	Dundee UnitedvAberdeenSat 14:00 · Premiership	4.4 → 5.1
Maguielson Lima Barbosa	16	5.4	×1.16	Operário PRvAthletic ClubTomorrow 22:30 · Serie B	5.2 → 6.0
António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre	26	5.3	×1.16	AjaxvAtalantaToday 19:00 · Europa Conference League	3.6 → 4.1
Stuart Attwell	37	5.2	×1.15	SunderlandvLeeds UnitedSun 16:30 · Premier League	4.4 → 5.0
Anderson Daronco	55	5.1	×1.15	ChapecoensevFluminenseSat 22:30 · Serie A	5.1 → 5.9
Anderson Daronco	55	5.1	×1.15	BahiavSão PauloThu 00:30 · Serie A	5.1 → 5.8
Davi de Oliveira Lacerda	49	5.1	×1.15	InternacionalvBotafogoSat 19:30 · Serie A	5.1 → 5.8
Gustavo Tejera	39	5.1	×1.15	FlamengovEstudiantesTomorrow 00:30 · Copa Libertadores	5.2 → 5.9
Pablo Dóvalo	25	5.1	×1.13	Unión Santa FevEstudiantesMon 22:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.3 → 6.0
Jodis Nascimento de Souza	4	6.3	×1.13	América MineirovCuiabáMon 22:30 · Serie B	4.4 → 5.0
Juxhin Xhaja	9	5.4	×1.12	FC MidtjyllandvSint-TruidenToday 19:00 · Europa Conference League	4.0 → 4.5
Alejandro José Hernández Hernández	37	5.0	×1.12	Viktoria PlzeňvLevski SofiaToday 19:00 · Europa League	4.3 → 4.8
Andy Madley	8	5.5	×1.12	Manchester CityvBrighton & Hove AlbionWed 19:30 · Carabao Cup	3.5 → 3.9
Leandro Rey Hilfer	39	5.0	×1.12	River PlatevRacing ClubSun 22:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.2 → 5.8
Andrea Colombo	34	4.9	×1.10	NapolivRomaSat 16:00 · Serie A	3.9 → 4.2
Jérôme Brisard	30	4.9	×1.10	FerencvárosivTorreenseToday 16:45 · Europa League	4.9 → 5.4

How the Card Model Works

Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.

Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.

Using Card Stats for Betting

Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.

Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.