Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory – Match preview
Adelaide United-:-
Melbourne VictoryCoopers StadiumRound 4
Predictions
Full Time Result
41%
36%
Adelaide UnitedDraw 23%Melbourne Victory
First Half Result
32%
30%
Adelaide UnitedDraw 38%Melbourne Victory
Team to Score First
49%
47%
Adelaide UnitedNo goal 4%Melbourne Victory
Probability
Both Teams to Score
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
82%
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
Over 3.5 Goals
38%
Adelaide United Over 3.5 Goals
8%
Adelaide United Over 1.5 Goals
46%
Melbourne Victory Over 0.5 Goals
72%
Adelaide United Over 0.5 Goals
76%
Match Result
Adelaide United
37%2.55
model 2.71-6%
Last 1035%7/20
Draw
27%3.60
model 3.76-4%
Last 1030%6/20
Melbourne Victory
36%2.55
model 2.74-7%
Last 1035%7/20
Draw no bet
Adelaide United
50%1.84
model 1.99-7%
Last 1050%7/14
Melbourne Victory
50%1.84
model 2.01-9%
Last 1050%7/14
Double chance
Adelaide United or draw
64%1.49
model 1.57-5%
Last 1065%13/20
Adelaide United or Melbourne Victory
73%1.27
model 1.36-7%
Last 1070%14/20
Draw or Melbourne Victory
63%1.49
model 1.59-6%
Last 1065%13/20
Expected goals 1.4–1.4 · Odds: bet365; the chance shown leans on its price.Match result screener
Goals
Expected 2.8 match goalsGoal screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 0.5 | 94% | 6% | – | 100%20/20 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 | 77% | 23% | – | 95%19/20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5main | 54% | 46% | – | 55%11/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 31% | 69% | – | 20%4/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5 | 16% | 84% | – | 0%0/20 | – |
Both teams to score
59%Yes 1.53
Last 1055%11/20
Adelaide United clean sheet
22%
model chance
Melbourne Victory clean sheet
27%
model chance
Adelaide United goals
O0.5 73%O1.5 37%O2.5 14%
Melbourne Victory goals
O0.5 78%O1.5 45%O2.5 20%
Corners
Expected 10.3 match cornersCorner screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 7.5 | 81% | 19% | – | 85%17/20 | – |
| Over/under 8.5 | 70% | 30% | – | 75%15/20 | – |
| Over/under 9.5 | 58% | 42% | – | 70%14/20 | – |
| Over/under 10.5main | 46% | 54% | – | 50%10/20 | – |
| Over/under 11.5 | 34% | 66% | – | 40%8/20 | – |
| Over/under 12.5 | 24% | 76% | – | 35%7/20 | – |
| Over/under 13.5 | 16% | 84% | – | 20%4/20 | – |
Adelaide United corners
O2.5 90%O3.5 77%O4.5 61%O5.5 43%O6.5 28%O7.5 16%
Melbourne Victory corners
O2.5 88%O3.5 74%O4.5 57%O5.5 39%O6.5 24%O7.5 14%
Cards
Expected 3.8 match cardsCard screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 | 73% | 27% | – | 70%14/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5main | 52% | 48% | – | 45%9/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5 | 33% | 67% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
| Over/under 5.5 | 18% | 82% | – | 10%2/20 | – |
| Over/under 6.5 | 9% | 91% | – | 10%2/20 | – |
Adelaide United cards
O0.5 85%O1.5 57%O2.5 30%O3.5 13%
Melbourne Victory cards
O0.5 85%O1.5 56%O2.5 29%O3.5 12%
Player Props
Best line per player and stat| Player | Line | Odds | Model | L5 | L10 | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ryan Kitto Adelaide United | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.57 | 1.57 | – | 80%4/5 | 70%7/10 | – |
Ethan Alagich Adelaide United | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.33 | 1.33 | – | 80%4/5 | 70%7/10 | – |
Bart Vriends Adelaide United | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.66 | 1.66 | – | 40%2/5 | 70%7/10 | – |
Denis Genreau Melbourne Victory | Over 1.5 Shots · 1.61 | 1.61 | – | 40%2/5 | 60%6/10 | – |
Louis D'Arrigo Melbourne Victory | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.53 | 1.53 | – | 40%2/5 | 50%5/10 | – |
Keegan Jelacic Melbourne Victory | Over 1.5 Shots · 1.53 | 1.53 | – | 60%3/5 | 50%5/10 | – |
Luke Duzel Adelaide United | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.40 | 1.40 | – | 60%3/5 | 50%5/10 | – |
Tom Lockyer Melbourne Victory | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.72 | 1.72 | – | 40%2/5 | 50%5/10 | – |
Jason Davidson Melbourne Victory | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.40 | 1.40 | – | 40%2/5 | 50%5/10 | – |
Juan Muñiz Adelaide United | Over 1.5 Shots · 1.53 | 1.53 | – | 80%4/5 | 50%5/10 | – |
Jordi Valadon Melbourne Victory | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.30 | 1.30 | – | 60%3/5 | 50%5/10 | – |
Panagiotis Kikianis Adelaide United | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.83 | 1.83 | – | 20%1/5 | 50%5/10 | – |
Form Guide
Updated 01 Nov 2026Adelaide UnitedMelbourne Victory
- 11
- League position
- 8
- L
- Last 5
- DDL
- 0.00
- Points per game (L5)
- 0.67
- 1
- Goals scored (L5)
- 3
- 2
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 4
- 1.32
- xG for (L5)
- 1.16
- 2.09
- xG against (L5)
- 2.80
- 0
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 0
Head to Head
5
Adelaide United wins
3
Draws
6
Melbourne Victory wins
Last 14 meetings
2.9
Goals per game
71%
Both teams scored
50%
Over 2.5 goals
27 Feb 2026
Last meeting
Adelaide United in the last 5 meetings
DWLLW
Injuries & Suspensions
Adelaide United
- Bart VriendsLeg Injury
- Dylan PieriasBroken Leg
- Jacob BrazeteCollateral Ligament Injury
- Jake NajdovskiKnee Injury
- Ryan WhiteUnknown Injury
Melbourne Victory
- Joshua InserraBack Injury
- Louis D'ArrigoHamstring Strain
Key Players
A-League Men, this seasonAdelaide United
Top scorer
—
Most assists
—
Best rated
Anselmo
7.28
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AnselmoMidfielder | 1 (1) | 91 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | 7.28 | – |
| Harry CrawfordMidfielder | 1 (1) | 90 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.64 | – |
| Ethan AlagichMidfielder | 1 (1) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | 6.99 | – |
| Fabian TalladiraDefender | 1 (1) | 90 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.46 | – |
| J. SmitsGoalkeeper | 1 (1) | 90 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.71 | – |
| Panagiotis KikianisDefender | 1 (1) | 90 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.81 | – |
| Craig GoodwinMidfielder | 1 (1) | 84 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.05 | – |
| Juan MuñizMidfielder | 1 (1) | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0.21 | 6.67 | – |
| Sotiri PhillisDefender | 1 (1) | 76 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.88 | – |
| Ryan KittoDefender | 1 (1) | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0.20 | 6.73 | – |
| Jonny YullMidfielder | 1 (0) | 27 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.34 | – |
| Ajak RiakAttacker | 1 (0) | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 6.50 | – |
| Feyzo KasumovicDefender | 1 (0) | 14 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.43 | – |
| Joey GaruccioMidfielder | 1 (0) | 14 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.77 | – |
| Amlani TatuAttacker | 1 (0) | 6 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.53 | – |
Melbourne Victory
Top scorer
Charles Nduka
1 goals
Most assists
Charles Nduka
1 assists
Best rated
Charles Nduka
7.09
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordi ValadonMidfielder | 2 (2) | 180 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.58 | – |
| Jack DuncanGoalkeeper | 2 (2) | 180 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.44 | – |
| Jason DavidsonDefender | 2 (2) | 180 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 6.54 | |
| Denis GenreauMidfielder | 2 (2) | 180 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | 6.98 | |
| Charles NdukaAttacker | 2 (2) | 171 | 1 | 1 | – | 7.09 | – |
| Guillermo MayMidfielder | 2 (2) | 164 | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | 6.82 | – |
| Joshua InserraDefender | 2 (2) | 161 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.35 | – |
| Matthew GrimaldiMidfielder | 2 (2) | 158 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 6.79 | – |
| Philipp ZiereisDefender | 2 (2) | 152 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.80 | |
| F. LinoDefender | 2 (1) | 109 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.37 | – |
| Keegan JelacicMidfielder | 2 (1) | 95 | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 7.06 | – |
| Harrison ShillingtonDefender | 1 (1) | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 6.89 | – |
| ClarismarioAttacker | 2 (1) | 85 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.35 | |
| Tom LockyerDefender | 1 (0) | 28 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.42 | – |
| Mikey GhossainiAttacker | 2 (0) | 22 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.36 | – |
Odds Comparison
Asian Handicap
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.90 | 1.90 | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — | 1.87 | 1.87 |
| MelBet | — | — | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| Pinnacle | — | — | 1.97 | 1.88 |
Goals Over/Under
| Bookmaker | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.61 | 2.20 |
| Betano.dk | 13.00 | 1.03 |
More on Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory
- Adelaide United stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Melbourne Victory stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- A-League Men (Australia) table & fixturesStandings, results and league leaders
- Mathematical football predictionsThis week's model probabilities for every match
- Over/under goals screenerGoal-line hit rates for every upcoming match
- Corner stats screenerCorner lines and hit rates by fixture