FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München – Match preview
FSV Mainz 05-:-
FC Bayern MünchenMewa ArenaRound 9
Match Preview
Updated 31 Oct 2026FootyPulse model
5%
85%
FSV Mainz 05Draw 10%FC Bayern München
Bookmaker implied
17%
66%
FSV Mainz 05Draw 17%FC Bayern München
0.7 – 3.2
Expected score
75%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Both teams to score
Predictions
Full Time Result
16%
64%
FSV Mainz 05Draw 20%FC Bayern München
First Half Result
20%
47%
FSV Mainz 05Draw 33%FC Bayern München
Team to Score First
33%
62%
FSV Mainz 05No goal 5%FC Bayern München
Probability
Both Teams to Score
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
81%
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
Over 3.5 Goals
40%
FSV Mainz 05 Over 3.5 Goals
2%
FSV Mainz 05 Over 1.5 Goals
22%
FC Bayern München Over 0.5 Goals
86%
FSV Mainz 05 Over 0.5 Goals
49%
Match Result
FSV Mainz 05
22%5.12
model 4.54disputed
Last 1020%4/20
Draw
17%6.32
model 5.85+8%
Last 1025%5/20
FC Bayern München
61%1.42
model 1.64-13%
Last 1055%11/20
Draw no bet
FSV Mainz 05
27%4.31
model 3.77disputed
Last 1027%4/15
FC Bayern München
73%1.20
model 1.36-12%
Last 1073%11/15
Double chance
FSV Mainz 05 or draw
39%2.83
model 2.56disputed
Last 1045%9/20
FSV Mainz 05 or FC Bayern München
83%1.11
model 1.21-8%
Last 1075%15/20
Draw or FC Bayern München
78%1.16
model 1.28-9%
Last 1080%16/20
Expected goals 1.7–2.2 · Odds: Pinnacle; the chance shown leans on its price.Match result screener
Goals
Expected 4.0 match goalsGoal screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 0.5 | 98% | 2% | – | 90%18/20 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 | 91% | 9% | – | 85%17/20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 | 76% | 24% | – | 80%16/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5main | 56% | 44% | – | 75%15/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5 | 36% | 64% | – | 55%11/20 | – |
Both teams to score
70%Yes 1.36
Last 1060%12/20
FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet
9%
model chance
FC Bayern München clean sheet
21%
model chance
FSV Mainz 05 goals
O0.5 79%O1.5 46%O2.5 21%
FC Bayern München goals
O0.5 91%O1.5 69%O2.5 43%
Corners
Expected 10.4 match cornersCorner screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 7.5 | 82% | 18% | – | 85%17/20 | – |
| Over/under 8.5 | 71% | 29% | – | 80%16/20 | – |
| Over/under 9.5 | 59% | 41% | – | 65%13/20 | – |
| Over/under 10.5main | 47% | 53% | – | 60%12/20 | – |
| Over/under 11.5 | 35% | 65% | – | 40%8/20 | – |
| Over/under 12.5 | 25% | 75% | – | 25%5/20 | – |
| Over/under 13.5 | 17% | 83% | – | 20%4/20 | – |
FSV Mainz 05 corners
O2.5 85%O3.5 70%O4.5 51%O5.5 34%O6.5 20%O7.5 11%
FC Bayern München corners
O2.5 92%O3.5 82%O4.5 67%O5.5 50%O6.5 34%O7.5 21%
Cards
Expected 4.0 match cardsCard screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 | 77% | 23% | – | 65%13/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 57% | 43% | – | 55%11/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5main | 38% | 62% | – | 25%5/20 | – |
| Over/under 5.5 | 22% | 78% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
| Over/under 6.5 | 11% | 89% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
FSV Mainz 05 cards
O0.5 90%O1.5 66%O2.5 40%O3.5 20%
FC Bayern München cards
O0.5 83%O1.5 52%O2.5 25%O3.5 10%
Player Props
Best line per player and stat| Player | Line | Odds | Model | L5 | L10 | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Phillip Tietz FSV Mainz 05 | Over 0.5 Shots on target · 1.50 | 1.50 | – | 80%4/5 | 90%9/10 | – |
Harry Kane FC Bayern München | Over 0.5 Score or assist · 1.33 | 1.33 | – | 80%4/5 | 90%9/10 | – |
Michael Olise FC Bayern München | Over 0.5 Score or assist · 1.44 | 1.44 | – | 60%3/5 | 80%8/10 | – |
Harry Kane FC Bayern München | Over 0.5 Goals · 1.53 | 1.53 | – | 60%3/5 | 80%8/10 | – |
Phillip Tietz FSV Mainz 05 | Over 2.5 Shots · 1.83 | 1.83 | – | 60%3/5 | 80%8/10 | – |
Michael Olise FC Bayern München | Over 0.5 Goals · 2.37 | 2.37 | – | 60%3/5 | 70%7/10 | – |
Phillipp Mwene FSV Mainz 05 | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.40 | 1.40 | – | 60%3/5 | 70%7/10 | – |
Michael Olise FC Bayern München | Over 1.5 Shots on target · 2.20 | 2.20 | – | 80%4/5 | 70%7/10 | – |
Dayot Upamecano FC Bayern München | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.66 | 1.66 | – | 100%5/5 | 60%6/10 | – |
Stefan Posch FSV Mainz 05 | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.83 | 1.83 | – | 40%2/5 | 60%6/10 | – |
Nadiem Amiri FSV Mainz 05 | Over 1.5 Shots · 1.40 | 1.40 | – | 40%2/5 | 60%6/10 | – |
Serge Gnabry FC Bayern München | Over 0.5 Shots on target · 1.36 | 1.36 | – | 60%3/5 | 60%6/10 | – |
Form Guide
Updated 31 Oct 2026FSV Mainz 05FC Bayern München
- 8
- League position
- 1
- LLWLW
- Last 5
- WWDWW
- 1.20
- Points per game (L5)
- 2.60
- 11
- Goals scored (L5)
- 20
- 14
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 5
- 3.63
- xG for (L5)
- 1.92
- 4.16
- xG against (L5)
- 1.25
- 1
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 1
Head to Head
4
FSV Mainz 05 wins
1
Draws
8
FC Bayern München wins
Last 13 meetings
4.8
Goals per game
85%
Both teams scored
100%
Over 2.5 goals
25 Apr 2026
Last meeting
FSV Mainz 05 in the last 5 meetings
LDLWL
Injuries & Suspensions
FSV Mainz 05
- Dominik KohrAnkle Injury
- Nadiem AmiriKnee Problems
- Otto RuoppiKnee Problems
- SilasFitness
FC Bayern München
- Joshua KimmichSpecial Leave
- Luis DíazTorn Muscle Bundle
Key Players
Bundesliga, this seasonFSV Mainz 05
Top scorer
Phillip Tietz
5 goals
Most assists
Sheraldo Becker
4 assists
Best rated
Sheraldo Becker
7.40
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaishu SanoMidfielder | 8 (8) | 705 | 0 | 2 | – | 7.01 | |
| Phillip TietzAttacker | 8 (8) | 693 | 5 | 1 | 0.87 | 7.33 | |
| Nadiem AmiriMidfielder | 8 (8) | 684 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 7.07 | |
| Phillipp MweneMidfielder | 8 (8) | 677 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 6.93 | ×5 |
| Stefan PoschDefender | 7 (7) | 628 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 6.49 | ×2 |
| Kacper PotulskiDefender | 8 (7) | 620 | 0 | 0 | 0.24 | 6.61 | |
| Sheraldo BeckerAttacker | 8 (8) | 614 | 2 | 4 | 0.23 | 7.40 | ×2 |
| Anthony CaciMidfielder | 8 (8) | 606 | 3 | 3 | 0.13 | 7.34 | |
| Alexander SchwolowGoalkeeper | 5 (5) | 450 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.84 | ×2 |
| Fabio GruberDefender | 5 (5) | 450 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.64 | – |
| Jae-sung LeeMidfielder | 7 (6) | 438 | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | 6.89 | |
| Danny da CostaDefender | 8 (4) | 437 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 6.76 | |
| Robin ZentnerGoalkeeper | 3 (3) | 270 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.55 | – |
| Ransford KönigsdörfferAttacker | 8 (0) | 178 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 6.65 | ×2 |
| Eric MartelMidfielder | 5 (1) | 109 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.56 | – |
FC Bayern München
Top scorer
Michael Olise
6 goals
Most assists
Harry Kane
5 assists
Best rated
Michael Olise
8.39
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayot UpamecanoDefender | 7 (7) | 586 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 7.36 | ×2 |
| Michael OliseMidfielder | 7 (6) | 573 | 6 | 3 | 0.18 | 8.39 | – |
| Harry KaneAttacker | 7 (6) | 534 | 4 | 5 | 0.28 | 7.74 | – |
| Joshua KimmichMidfielder | 6 (5) | 475 | 0 | 3 | – | 8.06 | – |
| Aleksandar PavlovicMidfielder | 6 (6) | 457 | 2 | 1 | – | 7.67 | |
| Luis DíazMidfielder | 6 (5) | 445 | 4 | 1 | – | 7.28 | – |
| Alphonso DaviesDefender | 6 (4) | 379 | 0 | 2 | – | 7.38 | – |
| Jonathan TahDefender | 5 (4) | 366 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.03 | |
| Nathaniel BrownDefender | 7 (5) | 365 | 1 | 2 | 0.36 | 6.99 | – |
| Manuel NeuerGoalkeeper | 4 (4) | 360 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.80 | – |
| Josip StanisicDefender | 6 (4) | 355 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.67 | – |
| Ismael SaibariMidfielder | 7 (4) | 333 | 2 | 3 | 0.32 | 7.15 | – |
| Konrad LaimerDefender | 4 (4) | 329 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.71 | |
| Min-jae KimDefender | 4 (3) | 295 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.91 | |
| Jonas UrbigGoalkeeper | 3 (3) | 270 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.92 | – |
Odds Comparison
Asian Handicap
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.87 | 1.97 | — | — |
| Dafabet | — | — | 1.89 | 1.96 |
| MansionBet | — | — | 1.91 | 1.97 |
| Marathonbet | — | — | 1.82 | 2.01 |
| MelBet | — | — | 1.81 | 2.00 |
| Pinnacle | — | — | 1.81 | 1.96 |
| Sbo | — | — | 1.91 | 1.99 |
Goals Over/Under
| Bookmaker | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.22 | 4.33 |
| Betano.dk | 1.01 | 17.00 |
More on FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München
- FSV Mainz 05 stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- FC Bayern München stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Bundesliga (Germany) table & fixturesStandings, results and league leaders
- Mathematical football predictionsThis week's model probabilities for every match
- Over/under goals screenerGoal-line hit rates for every upcoming match
- Corner stats screenerCorner lines and hit rates by fixture