Millwall vs Derby County – Match preview
Millwall-:-
Derby CountyThe DenRound 13
Match Preview
Updated 21 Oct 2026FootyPulse model
66%
16%
MillwallDraw 18%Derby County
2.3 – 1.0
Expected score
65%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams to score
Match Result
Millwall
44%–
fair 2.25–
Last 1050%10/20
Draw
29%–
fair 3.49–
Last 1020%4/20
Derby County
27%–
fair 3.71–
Last 1030%6/20
Draw no bet
Millwall
62%–
fair 1.61–
Last 1063%10/16
Derby County
38%–
fair 2.65–
Last 1038%6/16
Double chance
Millwall or draw
73%–
fair 1.37–
Last 1070%14/20
Millwall or Derby County
71%–
fair 1.40–
Last 1080%16/20
Draw or Derby County
56%–
fair 1.80–
Last 1050%10/20
Expected goals 1.5–1.1 · No bookmaker price yet: model chances only.Match result screener
Goals
Expected 2.5 match goalsGoal screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 0.5 | 92% | 8% | – | 95%19/20 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 | 72% | 28% | – | 70%14/20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5main | 46% | 54% | – | 40%8/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 25% | 75% | – | 25%5/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5 | 11% | 89% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
Both teams to score
51%
Last 1050%10/20
Millwall clean sheet
30%
model chance
Derby County clean sheet
27%
model chance
Millwall goals
O0.5 73%O1.5 38%O2.5 15%
Derby County goals
O0.5 70%O1.5 34%O2.5 12%
Corners
Expected 10.6 match cornersCorner screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 7.5 | 83% | 17% | – | 80%16/20 | – |
| Over/under 8.5 | 73% | 27% | – | 65%13/20 | – |
| Over/under 9.5 | 61% | 39% | – | 60%12/20 | – |
| Over/under 10.5main | 49% | 51% | – | 45%9/20 | – |
| Over/under 11.5 | 37% | 63% | – | 45%9/20 | – |
| Over/under 12.5 | 27% | 73% | – | 40%8/20 | – |
| Over/under 13.5 | 18% | 82% | – | 40%8/20 | – |
Millwall corners
O2.5 92%O3.5 81%O4.5 66%O5.5 49%O6.5 33%O7.5 20%
Derby County corners
O2.5 87%O3.5 73%O4.5 56%O5.5 38%O6.5 24%O7.5 13%
Cards
Expected 4.2 match cardsCard screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 | 78% | 22% | – | 80%16/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 60% | 40% | – | 55%11/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5main | 40% | 60% | – | 40%8/20 | – |
| Over/under 5.5 | 24% | 76% | – | 10%2/20 | – |
| Over/under 6.5 | 13% | 87% | – | 10%2/20 | – |
Millwall cards
O0.5 86%O1.5 58%O2.5 31%O3.5 14%
Derby County cards
O0.5 89%O1.5 64%O2.5 38%O3.5 18%
Form Guide
Updated 21 Oct 2026MillwallDerby County
- 12
- League position
- 23
- DLWDD
- Last 5
- LLDDL
- 1.20
- Points per game (L5)
- 0.40
- 7
- Goals scored (L5)
- 4
- 7
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 9
- —
- xG for (L5)
- —
- —
- xG against (L5)
- —
- 1
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 0
Head to Head
8
Millwall wins
6
Draws
5
Derby County wins
Last 19 meetings
2.1
Goals per game
42%
Both teams scored
32%
Over 2.5 goals
10 Mar 2026
Last meeting
Millwall in the last 5 meetings
WDWDW
Injuries & Suspensions
Millwall
No reported absences
Derby County
- Charlie TaylorHamstring Injury
- Craig ForsythKnee Injury
- Derry MurkinHamstring Injury
- Jacob Widell ZetterströmKnee Injury
- Sondre LangåsGroin Surgery
Key Players
Championship, this seasonMillwall
Top scorer
Lyndon Dykes
4 goals
Most assists
Camiel Neghli
2 assists
Best rated
Josh Coburn
7.24
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb TaylorDefender | 11 (11) | 990 | 2 | 1 | – | 7.10 | – |
| Jake CooperDefender | 11 (11) | 982 | 1 | 1 | – | 6.92 | – |
| Zak SturgeDefender | 11 (11) | 957 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.65 | ×3 |
| Camiel NeghliMidfielder | 11 (10) | 947 | 3 | 2 | – | 7.01 | |
| Jenson MetcalfeMidfielder | 11 (11) | 844 | 0 | 2 | – | 6.94 | ×4 |
| Lyndon DykesAttacker | 11 (8) | 715 | 4 | 1 | – | 7.07 | ×2 |
| Mark SykesMidfielder | 10 (7) | 640 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.74 | ×2 |
| Derek Mazou-SackoMidfielder | 8 (7) | 607 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.73 | ×3 |
| Taïryk ArconteAttacker | 8 (8) | 591 | 3 | 0 | – | 6.83 | – |
| Max CrocombeGoalkeeper | 6 (5) | 494 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.58 | – |
| Kyrell LisbieAttacker | 7 (5) | 420 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.72 | ×2 |
| J. Osei-TutuDefender | 7 (5) | 391 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.58 | – |
| Filip MarschallGoalkeeper | 4 (4) | 316 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.73 | – |
| Casper De NorreMidfielder | 4 (4) | 309 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.70 | |
| Josh CoburnAttacker | 4 (4) | 304 | 2 | 0 | – | 7.24 |
Derby County
Top scorer
Sammie Szmodics
3 goals
Most assists
Bobby Clark
2 assists
Best rated
Eiran Cashin
7.33
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby ClarkMidfielder | 11 (10) | 910 | 2 | 2 | – | 6.98 | – |
| Dion SandersonDefender | 10 (10) | 856 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.74 | ×2 |
| Sondre LangåsDefender | 10 (10) | 822 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.67 | ×4 |
| Sammie SzmodicsMidfielder | 10 (9) | 773 | 3 | 1 | – | 6.88 | |
| Alex MowattMidfielder | 9 (8) | 716 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.97 | ×3 |
| Charlie TaylorDefender | 8 (8) | 712 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.72 | |
| Joe WardDefender | 9 (6) | 631 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.97 | – |
| Jacob Widell ZetterströmGoalkeeper | 7 (7) | 630 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.94 | – |
| Ryan HedgesMidfielder | 10 (8) | 613 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.66 | |
| Carlton MorrisAttacker | 7 (7) | 595 | 1 | 1 | – | 7.04 | – |
| David OzohMidfielder | 7 (6) | 520 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.56 | ×3 |
| Mohammed FuseiniMidfielder | 7 (5) | 414 | 1 | 1 | – | 6.70 | ×2 |
| Oscar FrauloMidfielder | 7 (4) | 365 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.55 | |
| Lewis TravisMidfielder | 5 (4) | 360 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.61 | ×2 |
| Josh VickersGoalkeeper | 4 (4) | 360 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.61 | – |