Grêmio vs Atlético Mineiro – Match preview
Grêmio-:-
Atlético MineiroArena do Grêmio
Match Preview
Updated 18 Oct 2026FootyPulse model
67%
9%
GrêmioDraw 24%Atlético Mineiro
Bookmaker implied
38%
33%
GrêmioDraw 29%Atlético Mineiro
1.6 – 0.4
Expected score
31%
Over 2.5 goals
26%
Both teams to score
Match Result
Grêmio
37%2.71
fair 2.73-1%
Last 1035%7/20
Draw
31%2.96
fair 3.24-8%
Last 1015%3/20
Atlético Mineiro
32%2.88
fair 3.08-6%
Last 1050%10/20
Draw no bet
Grêmio
53%1.79
fair 1.89-5%
Last 1041%7/17
Atlético Mineiro
47%1.91
fair 2.13-10%
Last 1059%10/17
Double chance
Grêmio or draw
68%1.41
fair 1.48-5%
Last 1050%10/20
Grêmio or Atlético Mineiro
69%1.40
fair 1.45-3%
Last 1085%17/20
Draw or Atlético Mineiro
63%1.46
fair 1.58-7%
Last 1065%13/20
Expected goals 1.4–1.2 · Odds: Pinnacle; the chance shown leans on its price.Match result screener
Goals
Expected 2.7 match goalsGoal screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 0.5 | 93% | 7% | – | 100%20/20 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 | 75% | 25% | – | 75%15/20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5main | 50% | 50% | – | 50%10/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 28% | 72% | – | 25%5/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5 | 13% | 87% | – | 10%2/20 | – |
Both teams to score
51%Yes 2.00
Last 1045%9/20
Grêmio clean sheet
25%
model chance
Atlético Mineiro clean sheet
27%
model chance
Grêmio goals
O0.5 73%O1.5 37%O2.5 14%
Atlético Mineiro goals
O0.5 75%O1.5 40%O2.5 16%
Corners
Expected 9.9 match cornersCorner screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 7.5 | 77% | 23% | – | 70%14/20 | – |
| Over/under 8.5 | 65% | 35% | – | 70%14/20 | – |
| Over/under 9.5main | 53% | 47% | – | 60%12/20 | – |
| Over/under 10.5 | 40% | 60% | – | 45%9/20 | – |
| Over/under 11.5 | 29% | 71% | – | 35%7/20 | – |
| Over/under 12.5 | 20% | 80% | – | 25%5/20 | – |
| Over/under 13.5 | 13% | 87% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
Grêmio corners
O2.5 84%O3.5 68%O4.5 49%O5.5 32%O6.5 18%O7.5 10%
Atlético Mineiro corners
O2.5 90%O3.5 77%O4.5 61%O5.5 43%O6.5 28%O7.5 16%
Cards
Expected 4.9 match cardsCard screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 | 87% | 13% | – | 85%17/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 72% | 28% | – | 75%15/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5main | 55% | 45% | – | 60%12/20 | – |
| Over/under 5.5 | 37% | 63% | – | 50%10/20 | – |
| Over/under 6.5 | 23% | 77% | – | 25%5/20 | – |
Grêmio cards
O0.5 90%O1.5 67%O2.5 41%O3.5 20%
Atlético Mineiro cards
O0.5 93%O1.5 73%O2.5 48%O3.5 26%
Form Guide
Updated 18 Oct 2026GrêmioAtlético Mineiro
- 2
- League position
- 7
- WDWDW
- Last 5
- WDWDL
- 2.20
- Points per game (L5)
- 1.60
- 8
- Goals scored (L5)
- 5
- 2
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 4
- —
- xG for (L5)
- —
- —
- xG against (L5)
- —
- 3
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 2
Head to Head
5
Grêmio wins
0
Draws
5
Atlético Mineiro wins
Last 10 meetings
3.5
Goals per game
70%
Both teams scored
90%
Over 2.5 goals
16 Aug 2026
Last meeting
Grêmio in the last 5 meetings
LWWWL
Injuries & Suspensions
Grêmio
- Juan Ignacio NardoniHamstring Injury
Atlético Mineiro
- Thiago BorbasMuscle Injury
Key Players
Copa do Brasil, this seasonGrêmio
Top scorer
Carlos Vinícius
3 goals
Most assists
Francis Amuzu
2 assists
Best rated
Arthur Melo
7.94
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WevertonGoalkeeper | 6 (6) | 540 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.94 | |
| Erick NoriegaMidfielder | 5 (5) | 430 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.83 | – |
| Francis AmuzuMidfielder | 6 (5) | 396 | 2 | 2 | – | 7.23 | – |
| Carlos ViníciusAttacker | 5 (5) | 373 | 3 | 0 | – | 6.97 | |
| Cristian PavónMidfielder | 5 (5) | 366 | 1 | 0 | – | 7.20 | ×2 |
| MarlonDefender | 4 (4) | 360 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.76 | |
| WallaceDefender | 4 (4) | 360 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.36 | |
| Diego CaitoDefender | 4 (4) | 360 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.93 | – |
| Mathías VillasantiMidfielder | 4 (4) | 359 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.66 | – |
| Gustavo MartinsDefender | 5 (4) | 343 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.87 | ×2 |
| Juan Ignacio NardoniMidfielder | 4 (3) | 209 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.55 | – |
| Martin BraithwaiteAttacker | 5 (1) | 195 | 2 | 1 | – | 6.99 | – |
| Walter KannemannDefender | 3 (2) | 180 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.57 | ×3 |
| VieryDefender | 2 (2) | 180 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.55 | – |
| José EnamoradoAttacker | 5 (2) | 176 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.64 |
Atlético Mineiro
Top scorer
Renan Lodi
2 goals
Most assists
Tomás Cuello
2 assists
Best rated
Fred
8.04
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EversonGoalkeeper | 6 (6) | 570 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.80 | – |
| Renan LodiDefender | 6 (6) | 496 | 2 | 0 | – | 7.49 | |
| Mateo CassierraAttacker | 6 (6) | 494 | 1 | 1 | – | 7.04 | – |
| Alan FrancoMidfielder | 5 (5) | 444 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.79 | ×2 |
| Tomás CuelloAttacker | 6 (3) | 413 | 0 | 2 | – | 6.83 | |
| Vitor HugoDefender | 4 (4) | 390 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.88 | – |
| BernardMidfielder | 5 (5) | 362 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.79 | |
| NatanaelDefender | 5 (3) | 335 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.74 | |
| RuanDefender | 5 (5) | 306 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.73 | |
| LyancoDefender | 3 (3) | 300 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.37 | |
| Victor HugoMidfielder | 4 (3) | 261 | 1 | 1 | – | 7.45 | – |
| MayconMidfielder | 4 (3) | 202 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.99 | – |
| Kevin CastañoMidfielder | 2 (2) | 180 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.85 | – |
| FredMidfielder | 2 (2) | 177 | 1 | 1 | – | 8.04 | – |
| Tomás PérezMidfielder | 2 (2) | 168 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.60 | – |
Odds Comparison
Asian Handicap
| Bookmaker | Home | Away | 1 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xbet | 2.10 | 1.73 | — | — |
| bet365 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.95 |
| MansionBet | 1.86 | 1.98 | — | — |
| MelBet | 1.84 | 1.95 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.86 | 1.98 | — | — |
Goals Over/Under
| Bookmaker | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.57 | 2.35 |