Valencia vs Real Madrid – Match preview
Valencia-:-
Real MadridEstadio de MestallaRound 12
Match Preview
Updated 31 Oct 2026FootyPulse model
6%
79%
ValenciaDraw 15%Real Madrid
Bookmaker implied
13%
70%
ValenciaDraw 17%Real Madrid
0.4 – 2.2
Expected score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
31%
Both teams to score
Predictions
Full Time Result
15%
64%
ValenciaDraw 21%Real Madrid
First Half Result
18%
43%
ValenciaDraw 39%Real Madrid
Team to Score First
31%
63%
ValenciaNo goal 6%Real Madrid
Probability
Both Teams to Score
49%
Over 1.5 Goals
77%
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
Over 3.5 Goals
33%
Valencia Over 3.5 Goals
1%
Valencia Over 1.5 Goals
19%
Real Madrid Over 0.5 Goals
85%
Valencia Over 0.5 Goals
49%
Match Result
Valencia
18%6.91
model 5.49disputed
Last 1015%3/20
Draw
19%5.83
model 5.29disputed
Last 1015%3/20
Real Madrid
63%1.34
model 1.59-16%
Last 1070%14/20
Draw no bet
Valencia
22%5.72
model 4.45disputed
Last 1018%3/17
Real Madrid
78%1.11
model 1.29-14%
Last 1082%14/17
Double chance
Valencia or draw
37%3.16
model 2.69disputed
Last 1030%6/20
Valencia or Real Madrid
81%1.12
model 1.23-9%
Last 1085%17/20
Draw or Real Madrid
82%1.09
model 1.22-11%
Last 1085%17/20
Expected goals 1.4–1.8 · Odds: Pinnacle; the chance shown leans on its price.Match result screener
Goals
Expected 3.2 match goalsGoal screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 0.5 | 96% | 4% | – | 90%18/20 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 | 83% | 17% | – | 65%13/20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 | 61% | 39% | – | 65%13/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5main | 39% | 61% | – | 45%9/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5 | 21% | 79% | – | 35%7/20 | – |
Both teams to score
58%Yes 1.66
Last 1060%12/20
Valencia clean sheet
15%
model chance
Real Madrid clean sheet
29%
model chance
Valencia goals
O0.5 71%O1.5 35%O2.5 13%
Real Madrid goals
O0.5 85%O1.5 57%O2.5 30%
Corners
Expected 9.9 match cornersCorner screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 7.5 | 77% | 23% | – | 70%14/20 | – |
| Over/under 8.5 | 66% | 34% | – | 60%12/20 | – |
| Over/under 9.5main | 53% | 47% | – | 60%12/20 | – |
| Over/under 10.5 | 40% | 60% | – | 45%9/20 | – |
| Over/under 11.5 | 29% | 71% | – | 40%8/20 | – |
| Over/under 12.5 | 20% | 80% | – | 25%5/20 | – |
| Over/under 13.5 | 13% | 87% | – | 25%5/20 | – |
Valencia corners
O2.5 82%O3.5 64%O4.5 45%O5.5 28%O6.5 16%O7.5 8%
Real Madrid corners
O2.5 91%O3.5 80%O4.5 64%O5.5 47%O6.5 31%O7.5 19%
Cards
Expected 4.7 match cardsCard screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 | 85% | 15% | – | 90%18/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 70% | 30% | – | 80%16/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5main | 51% | 49% | – | 60%12/20 | – |
| Over/under 5.5 | 34% | 66% | – | 40%8/20 | – |
| Over/under 6.5 | 20% | 80% | – | 20%4/20 | – |
Valencia cards
O0.5 91%O1.5 69%O2.5 43%O3.5 22%
Real Madrid cards
O0.5 90%O1.5 68%O2.5 41%O3.5 21%
Player Props
Best line per player and stat| Player | Line | Odds | Model | L5 | L10 | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kylian Mbappé Real Madrid | Over 0.5 Goals · 1.53 | 1.53 | – | 80%4/5 | 80%8/10 | – |
Yan Diomande Real Madrid | Over 0.5 Score or assist · 1.72 | 1.72 | – | 80%4/5 | 50%5/10 | – |
Yan Diomande Real Madrid | Over 0.5 Assists · 3.40 | 3.40 | – | 60%3/5 | 40%4/10 | – |
Brahim Díaz Real Madrid | Over 0.5 Score or assist · 2.10 | 2.10 | – | 40%2/5 | 40%4/10 | – |
Carlos Espí Real Madrid | Over 0.5 Score or assist · 1.57 | 1.57 | – | 40%2/5 | 40%4/10 | – |
Carlos Espí Real Madrid | Over 0.5 Goals · 1.83 | 1.83 | – | 40%2/5 | 40%4/10 | – |
Guido Rodríguez Valencia | Over 0.5 Score or assist · 6.50 | 6.50 | – | 0%0/5 | 30%3/10 | – |
Jude Bellingham Real Madrid | Over 0.5 Assists · 4.00 | 4.00 | – | 20%1/5 | 30%3/10 | – |
Kylian Mbappé Real Madrid | Over 0.5 Assists · 3.40 | 3.40 | – | 20%1/5 | 30%3/10 | – |
Luis Rioja Valencia | Over 0.5 Score or assist · 4.00 | 4.00 | – | 20%1/5 | 30%3/10 | – |
Jude Bellingham Real Madrid | Over 0.5 Score or assist · 2.05 | 2.05 | – | 20%1/5 | 30%3/10 | – |
Arda Güler Real Madrid | Over 0.5 Score or assist · 1.80 | 1.80 | – | 60%3/5 | 30%3/10 | – |
Form Guide
Updated 31 Oct 2026ValenciaReal Madrid
- 19
- League position
- 3
- LDDLW
- Last 5
- WWWLW
- 1.00
- Points per game (L5)
- 2.40
- 6
- Goals scored (L5)
- 11
- 7
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 6
- 1.27
- xG for (L5)
- 1.55
- 1.46
- xG against (L5)
- 1.45
- 2
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 1
Head to Head
3
Valencia wins
1
Draws
8
Real Madrid wins
Last 12 meetings
3.3
Goals per game
58%
Both teams scored
67%
Over 2.5 goals
08 Feb 2026
Last meeting
Valencia in the last 5 meetings
LLWLD
Injuries & Suspensions
Valencia
- Diego LópezCruciate Ligament Tear
- Javi GuerraFlu
- José CopeteMeniscus Tear
- Sergi CanósCruciate Ligament Tear
Real Madrid
- Ferland MendyTendon Rupture
- Raúl AsencioFatigue Fracture
- RodrygoCruciate Ligament Tear
- Thibaut CourtoisFlu
- Vinicius JuniorSuspension Through Sports Court
Key Players
La Liga, this seasonValencia
Top scorer
Pepelu
1 goals
Most assists
Javi Guerra
2 assists
Best rated
Guido Rodríguez
6.92
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stole DimitrievskiGoalkeeper | 10 (10) | 900 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.87 | |
| PepeluDefender | 10 (10) | 838 | 1 | 0 | 0.79 | 6.81 | ×2 |
| Javi GuerraMidfielder | 10 (10) | 810 | 0 | 2 | – | 6.78 | |
| Arnaut DanjumaAttacker | 10 (8) | 750 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | 6.78 | – |
| José GayàDefender | 8 (7) | 626 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 6.77 | |
| Filip UgrinicMidfielder | 10 (7) | 586 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | 6.69 | – |
| Pablo MaffeoDefender | 9 (7) | 583 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.58 | ×3 |
| Guido RodríguezMidfielder | 7 (7) | 582 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.92 | ×3 |
| César TárregaDefender | 7 (6) | 510 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | 6.82 | |
| Justin de HaasDefender | 6 (6) | 459 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.64 | ×2 |
| Hugo DuroAttacker | 10 (5) | 411 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 6.62 | – |
| Jesús VázquezDefender | 8 (4) | 351 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.42 | – |
| David OtorbiAttacker | 9 (3) | 344 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.76 | – |
| Mouctar DiakhabyDefender | 5 (4) | 331 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.43 | ×3 |
| Ryunosuke SatoMidfielder | 5 (4) | 297 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.34 | ×2 |
Real Madrid
Top scorer
Kylian Mbappé
11 goals
Most assists
Kylian Mbappé
3 assists
Best rated
Kylian Mbappé
7.87
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian MbappéAttacker | 10 (10) | 895 | 11 | 3 | 1.03 | 7.87 | ×2 |
| Thibaut CourtoisGoalkeeper | 9 (9) | 810 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.95 | – |
| Ibrahima KonatéDefender | 9 (9) | 810 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.86 | ×4 |
| Federico ValverdeMidfielder | 10 (10) | 802 | 0 | 2 | – | 7.02 | – |
| Jude BellinghamMidfielder | 10 (9) | 779 | 3 | 3 | 0.21 | 7.57 | ×2 |
| Dean HuijsenDefender | 8 (8) | 682 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.95 | |
| Marc CucurellaDefender | 10 (6) | 653 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.77 | ×2 |
| Arda GülerMidfielder | 10 (8) | 593 | 2 | 2 | 0.23 | 7.65 | |
| Vinicius JuniorMidfielder | 8 (7) | 585 | 1 | 3 | – | 6.90 | ×2 |
| Yan DiomandeMidfielder | 10 (5) | 546 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 7.07 | |
| Aurélien TchouaméniMidfielder | 6 (5) | 448 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.97 | ×2 |
| Denzel DumfriesDefender | 8 (5) | 447 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.74 | |
| Bernardo SilvaMidfielder | 8 (4) | 382 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.63 | – |
| Antonio RüdigerDefender | 4 (3) | 306 | 1 | 0 | – | 7.33 | |
| Eduardo CamavingaMidfielder | 9 (2) | 274 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.77 | ×2 |
Odds Comparison
Asian Handicap
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.87 | 1.97 | — | — |
| Dafabet | — | — | 2.13 | 1.73 |
| MansionBet | — | — | 2.16 | 1.74 |
| Marathonbet | — | — | 1.87 | 1.95 |
| MelBet | — | — | 1.86 | 1.94 |
| Pinnacle | — | — | 1.91 | 1.93 |
| Sbo | — | — | 2.19 | 1.74 |
Goals Over/Under
| Bookmaker | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.44 | 2.75 |
| Betano.dk | 14.50 | 1.02 |
More on Valencia vs Real Madrid
- Valencia stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Real Madrid stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- La Liga (Spain) table & fixturesStandings, results and league leaders
- Mathematical football predictionsThis week's model probabilities for every match
- Over/under goals screenerGoal-line hit rates for every upcoming match
- Corner stats screenerCorner lines and hit rates by fixture