León vs Toluca – Match preview
León-:-
TolucaEstadio LeónRound 14
Match Preview
Updated 21 Oct 2026FootyPulse model
32%
45%
LeónDraw 23%Toluca
Bookmaker implied
30%
45%
LeónDraw 25%Toluca
1.5 – 1.8
Expected score
65%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Both teams to score
Match Result
León
31%3.64
fair 3.21disputed
Last 1055%11/20
Draw
27%3.43
fair 3.71-8%
Last 1020%4/20
Toluca
42%2.06
fair 2.38-14%
Last 1025%5/20
Draw no bet
León
43%2.58
fair 2.35disputed
Last 1069%11/16
Toluca
57%1.46
fair 1.74-16%
Last 1031%5/16
Double chance
León or draw
58%1.77
fair 1.72+3%
Last 1075%15/20
León or Toluca
73%1.32
fair 1.37-4%
Last 1080%16/20
Draw or Toluca
69%1.29
fair 1.45-11%
Last 1045%9/20
Expected goals 1.8–1.5 · Odds: Pinnacle; the chance shown leans on its price.Match result screener
Goals
Expected 3.2 match goalsGoal screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 0.5 | 96% | 4% | – | 100%20/20 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 | 83% | 17% | 1.16 / 5.16 | 85%17/20 | none |
| Over/under 2.5 | 62% | 38% | 1.57 / 2.43 | 55%11/20 | none |
| Over/under 3.5main | 41% | 59% | 2.34 / 1.61 | 45%9/20 | none |
| Over/under 4.5 | 23% | 77% | 4.02 / 1.24 | 35%7/20 | none |
Both teams to score
63%Yes 1.50
Last 1065%13/20
León clean sheet
19%
model chance
Toluca clean sheet
21%
model chance
León goals
O0.5 79%O1.5 47%O2.5 21%
Toluca goals
O0.5 81%O1.5 49%O2.5 23%
Corners
Expected 11.2 match cornersCorner screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 7.5 | 87% | 13% | – | 85%17/20 | – |
| Over/under 8.5 | 78% | 22% | – | 85%17/20 | – |
| Over/under 9.5 | 68% | 32% | – | 70%14/20 | – |
| Over/under 10.5 | 56% | 44% | – | 60%12/20 | – |
| Over/under 11.5main | 44% | 56% | – | 45%9/20 | – |
| Over/under 12.5 | 33% | 67% | – | 30%6/20 | – |
| Over/under 13.5 | 23% | 77% | – | 25%5/20 | – |
León corners
O2.5 86%O3.5 71%O4.5 52%O5.5 35%O6.5 21%O7.5 11%
Toluca corners
O2.5 95%O3.5 88%O4.5 76%O5.5 61%O6.5 45%O7.5 31%
Cards
Expected 4.6 match cardsCard screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 | 84% | 16% | – | 80%16/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 68% | 32% | – | 70%14/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5main | 49% | 51% | – | 50%10/20 | – |
| Over/under 5.5 | 32% | 68% | – | 30%6/20 | – |
| Over/under 6.5 | 18% | 82% | – | 25%5/20 | – |
León cards
O0.5 89%O1.5 64%O2.5 37%O3.5 18%
Toluca cards
O0.5 91%O1.5 70%O2.5 44%O3.5 23%
Form Guide
Updated 21 Oct 2026LeónToluca
- 7
- League position
- 6
- LDWDW
- Last 5
- DLDLW
- 1.60
- Points per game (L5)
- 1.00
- 9
- Goals scored (L5)
- 9
- 8
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 10
- —
- xG for (L5)
- —
- —
- xG against (L5)
- —
- 1
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 1
Head to Head
2
León wins
6
Draws
3
Toluca wins
Last 11 meetings
4.2
Goals per game
82%
Both teams scored
82%
Over 2.5 goals
26 Apr 2026
Last meeting
León in the last 5 meetings
LLDDL
Injuries & Suspensions
León
- Valentín GauthierAnkle Surgery
Toluca
- Marcel RuizCruciate Ligament Tear
- Oswaldo VirgenKnee Injury
Confirmed Line-ups
León
4-1-4-1- 7Iván MorenoDefender
- 14Jhohan RomañaDefender
- 3Juan GuevaraDefender
- 5Sebastián Ignacio Vegas OrellanaDefender
- 11Ismael DíazMidfielder
- 18Edgar GuerraMidfielder
- 20Rodrigo EcheverríaMidfielder
- 6Fernando BeltránMidfielder
- 13Daniel ArcilaMidfielder
- 19Alfonso AlvaradoAttacker
Toluca
4-2-3-1- 22Luis GarcíaGoalkeeper
- 2Diego BarbosaDefender
- 6Federico PereiraDefender
- 25Everardo del VillarDefender
- 20Jesús GallardoDefender
- 5Franco RomeroMidfielder
- 8Nicolás CastroMidfielder
- 11HelinhoMidfielder
- 10Jesús AnguloMidfielder
- 9Alexis VegaMidfielder
- 26PaulinhoAttacker
Key Players
Liga MX, this seasonLeón
Top scorer
Daniel Arcila
4 goals
Most assists
Fernando Beltrán
3 assists
Best rated
Daniel Arcila
7.06
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan GuevaraDefender | 11 (11) | 990 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.83 | ×4 |
| Óscar GarcíaGoalkeeper | 10 (10) | 900 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.94 | – |
| Jhohan RomañaDefender | 10 (10) | 876 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.72 | |
| Iván MorenoDefender | 12 (10) | 854 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.71 | |
| José Iván Rodríguez RebollarMidfielder | 10 (10) | 813 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.74 | – |
| Daniel ArcilaMidfielder | 11 (9) | 766 | 4 | 1 | – | 7.06 | ×3 |
| Díber CambindoAttacker | 11 (9) | 741 | 3 | 2 | – | 7.04 | |
| Rodrigo EcheverríaMidfielder | 10 (8) | 717 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.62 | ×2 |
| Jordi CortizoMidfielder | 11 (8) | 678 | 2 | 0 | – | 6.96 | |
| Salvador ReyesMidfielder | 9 (5) | 540 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.39 | – |
| Sebastián Ignacio Vegas OrellanaDefender | 7 (7) | 535 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.79 | ×3 |
| Fernando BeltránMidfielder | 12 (7) | 508 | 0 | 3 | – | 6.86 | |
| Ismael DíazAttacker | 9 (6) | 445 | 2 | 0 | – | 6.77 | – |
| Alfonso AlvaradoAttacker | 10 (3) | 375 | 4 | 1 | – | 6.92 | |
| Edgar GuerraMidfielder | 8 (3) | 358 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.88 | – |
Toluca
Top scorer
Federico Viñas
4 goals
Most assists
Helinho
5 assists
Best rated
Alexis Vega
7.45
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico PereiraDefender | 10 (10) | 856 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.33 | |
| Franco RomeroMidfielder | 9 (8) | 680 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.65 | ×3 |
| Everardo del VillarDefender | 8 (8) | 644 | 1 | 1 | – | 6.89 | |
| Bruno MéndezDefender | 8 (7) | 628 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.84 | |
| Alexis VegaMidfielder | 9 (9) | 626 | 3 | 2 | – | 7.45 | ×2 |
| Luis GarcíaGoalkeeper | 7 (7) | 615 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.25 | – |
| Jesús GallardoDefender | 8 (6) | 608 | 1 | 1 | – | 6.88 | |
| HelinhoMidfielder | 10 (6) | 591 | 3 | 5 | – | 7.41 | ×2 |
| Nicolás CastroMidfielder | 9 (5) | 579 | 0 | 1 | – | 7.01 | ×2 |
| Jorge DíazMidfielder | 11 (5) | 529 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.69 | – |
| Federico ViñasAttacker | 8 (5) | 508 | 4 | 0 | – | 7.05 | – |
| Jesús AnguloMidfielder | 10 (6) | 481 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.88 | – |
| PaulinhoAttacker | 5 (5) | 441 | 2 | 0 | – | 6.84 | – |
| Diego BarbosaDefender | 6 (6) | 403 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.73 | |
| Brian GarcíaDefender | 7 (4) | 383 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.83 |
Odds Comparison
Asian Handicap
| Bookmaker | Away | Home | 2 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xbet | 5.95 | 1.07 | — | — |
| bet365 | — | — | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 1.06 | — | — |
| Betinia | — | — | 1.90 | 1.75 |
| Betsonic | — | — | 1.90 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.97 | 1.54 | — | — |
| Campobet | — | — | 1.90 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.07 | 1.78 | — | — |
| MansionBet | 2.08 | 1.80 | — | — |
| Marathonbet | 3.90 | 1.07 | — | — |
| MelBet | 1.46 | 2.54 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | 1.42 | — | — |
Goals Over/Under
| Bookmaker | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1xbet | 1.13 | 4.60 |
| bet365 | 1.57 | 2.35 |
| Betano.dk | 11.50 | 1.01 |
| Betfair | 1.14 | 1.57 |
| Betinia | 2.20 | 1.57 |
| Betsonic | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 2.08 |
| Campobet | 1.57 | 2.16 |
| Marathonbet | 6.30 | 1.06 |
| Pinnacle | 2.11 | 1.24 |
HT/FT Double
| Bookmaker | Home/Away | Draw/Away | Draw/Draw | Home/Home | Away/Home | Draw/Home | Away/Draw | Away/Away | Home/Draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xbet | 22.00 | 5.15 | 5.85 | 5.75 | 30.00 | 8.30 | 13.70 | 2.91 | 14.00 |
| Betfair | 15.00 | 5.50 | 6.00 | 5.00 | 21.00 | 7.50 | 12.00 | 3.20 | 12.00 |
| Marathonbet | 22.00 | 5.15 | 5.85 | 5.75 | 30.00 | 8.30 | 13.75 | 2.91 | 14.00 |