Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo — Preview & Prediction

Match Preview

Updated 21 Oct 2026

FootyPulse model

41%

19%

Vélez SarsfieldDraw 40%San Lorenzo

Bookmaker implied

47%

23%

Vélez SarsfieldDraw 30%San Lorenzo

0.8 – 0.4

Expected score

13%

Over 2.5 goals

20%

Both teams to score

Match Result

Vélez Sarsfield

44%2.00

fair 2.26-12%

Last 1025%5/20

Draw

31%3.10

fair 3.24-4%

Last 1040%8/20

San Lorenzo

25%4.20

fair 4.01+5%

Last 1035%7/20

Draw no bet

Vélez Sarsfield

64%1.35

fair 1.56-14%

Last 1042%5/12

San Lorenzo

36%2.85

fair 2.77+3%

Last 1058%7/12

Double chance

Vélez Sarsfield or draw

75%1.22

fair 1.33-8%

Last 1065%13/20

Vélez Sarsfield or San Lorenzo

69%1.35

fair 1.45-7%

Last 1060%12/20

Draw or San Lorenzo

56%1.78

fair 1.79-1%

Last 1075%15/20

Expected goals 1.2–1.0 · Odds: bet365; the chance shown leans on its price.Match result screener

Goals

Expected 2.2 match goalsGoal screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	Value
Over/under 0.5	89%	11%	–	85%17/20	–
Over/under 1.5	64%	36%	–	50%10/20	–
Over/under 2.5main	37%	63%	–	30%6/20	–
Over/under 3.5	18%	82%	–	20%4/20	–
Over/under 4.5	7%	93%	–	5%1/20	–

Both teams to score

43%Yes 2.25

Last 1040%8/20

Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet

32%

model chance

San Lorenzo clean sheet

35%

model chance

Vélez Sarsfield goals

O0.5 65%O1.5 28%O2.5 9%

San Lorenzo goals

O0.5 68%O1.5 31%O2.5 11%

Corners

Expected 9.2 match cornersCorner screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	Value
Over/under 7.5	70%	30%	–	65%13/20	–
Over/under 8.5	57%	43%	–	45%9/20	–
Over/under 9.5main	44%	56%	–	45%9/20	–
Over/under 10.5	32%	68%	–	45%9/20	–
Over/under 11.5	22%	78%	–	15%3/20	–
Over/under 12.5	14%	86%	–	10%2/20	–
Over/under 13.5	8%	92%	–	10%2/20	–

Vélez Sarsfield corners

O2.5 86%O3.5 71%O4.5 53%O5.5 36%O6.5 22%O7.5 12%

San Lorenzo corners

O2.5 81%O3.5 63%O4.5 44%O5.5 27%O6.5 15%O7.5 7%

Cards

Expected 5.3 match cardsCard screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	Value
Over/under 2.5	90%	10%	–	100%20/20	–
Over/under 3.5	78%	22%	–	80%16/20	–
Over/under 4.5	61%	39%	–	60%12/20	–
Over/under 5.5main	44%	56%	–	45%9/20	–
Over/under 6.5	28%	72%	–	35%7/20	–

Vélez Sarsfield cards

O0.5 94%O1.5 76%O2.5 52%O3.5 30%

San Lorenzo cards

O0.5 92%O1.5 73%O2.5 47%O3.5 26%

Player Props

Best line per player and stat

Player	Line	Odds	Model	L5	L10	EV
Facundo Farías San Lorenzo	Over 1.5 Shots · 1.33	1.33	40%	40%2/5	50%5/10	-47%
Agustín Ladstatter San Lorenzo	Over 0.5 Shots · 1.36	1.36	38%	40%2/5	50%5/10	-48%
Rodrigo Auzmendi San Lorenzo	Over 0.5 Score or assist · 3.00	3.00	31%	60%3/5	40%4/10	-8%
Facundo Gulli San Lorenzo	Over 0.5 Score or assist · 3.50	3.50	23%	60%3/5	40%4/10	-21%
Facundo Farías San Lorenzo	Over 0.5 Shots on target · 1.80	1.80	39%	40%2/5	40%4/10	-30%
Lucas Robertone Vélez Sarsfield	Over 1.5 Shots · 1.72	1.72	39%	40%2/5	40%4/10	-32%
Ezequiel Herrera San Lorenzo	Over 0.5 Shots · 2.20	2.20	29%	40%2/5	40%4/10	-37%
Lucas Robertone Vélez Sarsfield	Over 0.5 Shots on target · 2.00	2.00	31%	20%1/5	40%4/10	-37%
Rodrigo Aliendro Vélez Sarsfield	Over 1.5 Shots · 1.72	1.72	27%	40%2/5	40%4/10	-53%
Dilan Godoy Vélez Sarsfield	Over 0.5 Shots on target · 1.72	1.72	23%	40%2/5	40%4/10	-61%
Gustavo del Prete San Lorenzo	Over 0.5 Shots · 1.61	1.61	21%	40%2/5	40%4/10	-66%
Facundo Gulli San Lorenzo	Over 0.5 Assists · 7.50	7.50	15%	40%2/5	30%3/10	+14%

Player prop screener

Form Guide

Updated 21 Oct 2026

Vélez SarsfieldSan Lorenzo

7
League position: 17; WLDWD
Last 5: WWLLD; 1.60
Points per game (L5): 1.40; 7
Goals scored (L5): 4; 7
Goals conceded (L5): 7; —
xG for (L5): —; —
xG against (L5): —; 1
Clean sheets (L5): 1

Head to Head

2

Vélez Sarsfield wins

3

Draws

1

San Lorenzo wins

Last 6 meetings

0.8

Goals per game

17%

Both teams scored

17%

Over 2.5 goals

21 Apr 2026

Last meeting

Vélez Sarsfield in the last 5 meetings

DLDWD

Injuries & Suspensions