Manchester United vs AFC Bournemouth

Match Preview

Updated 21 Oct 2026

FootyPulse model

79%

10%

Manchester UnitedDraw 11%AFC Bournemouth

Bookmaker implied

51%

25%

Manchester UnitedDraw 24%AFC Bournemouth

3.7 – 1.4

Expected score

88%

Over 2.5 goals

74%

Both teams to score

Match Result

Manchester United

48%1.91

fair 2.09-8%

Last 1025%5/20

Draw

26%3.87

fair 3.92-1%

Last 1035%7/20

AFC Bournemouth

27%3.97

fair 3.76+6%

Last 1040%8/20

Draw no bet

Manchester United

64%1.42

fair 1.56-9%

Last 1038%5/13

AFC Bournemouth

36%2.94

fair 2.80+5%

Last 1062%8/13

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

73%1.28

fair 1.36-6%

Last 1060%12/20

Manchester United or AFC Bournemouth

74%1.29

fair 1.34-4%

Last 1065%13/20

Draw or AFC Bournemouth

52%1.96

fair 1.92+2%

Last 1075%15/20

Expected goals 1.6–1.4 · Odds: Pinnacle; the chance shown leans on its price.Match result screener

Goals

Expected 2.9 match goalsGoal screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	Value
Over/under 0.5	95%	5%	–	100%20/20	–
Over/under 1.5	79%	21%	–	90%18/20	–
Over/under 2.5main	57%	43%	1.63 / 2.33	55%11/20	none
Over/under 3.5	36%	64%	2.52 / 1.55	40%8/20	none
Over/under 4.5	17%	83%	–	15%3/20	–

Both teams to score

59%Yes 1.57

Last 1060%12/20

Manchester United clean sheet

22%

model chance

AFC Bournemouth clean sheet

24%

model chance

Manchester United goals

O0.5 76%O1.5 42%O2.5 17%

AFC Bournemouth goals

O0.5 78%O1.5 45%O2.5 19%

Corners

Expected 9.4 match cornersCorner screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	Value
Over/under 7.5	72%	28%	–	60%12/20	–
Over/under 8.5	60%	40%	–	45%9/20	–
Over/under 9.5main	52%	48%	1.64 / 2.24	40%8/20	Under +7%
Over/under 10.5	40%	60%	2.03 / 1.78	30%6/20	Under +6%
Over/under 11.5	24%	76%	–	25%5/20	–
Over/under 12.5	16%	84%	–	20%4/20	–
Over/under 13.5	10%	90%	–	10%2/20	–

Manchester United corners

O2.5 86%O3.5 71%O4.5 53%O5.5 36%O6.5 22%O7.5 12%

AFC Bournemouth corners

O2.5 83%O3.5 67%O4.5 48%O5.5 31%O6.5 18%O7.5 9%

Cards

Expected 3.9 match cards · Referee Jarred Gillett (3.7 cards a match, ×0.89)Card screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	Value
Over/under 2.5	74%	26%	–	95%19/20	–
Over/under 3.5main	54%	46%	–	70%14/20	–
Over/under 4.5	41%	59%	1.90 / 1.80	45%9/20	Under +5%
Over/under 5.5	19%	81%	–	30%6/20	–
Over/under 6.5	10%	90%	–	5%1/20	–

Manchester United cards

O0.5 82%O1.5 52%O2.5 25%O3.5 10%

AFC Bournemouth cards

O0.5 88%O1.5 63%O2.5 36%O3.5 17%

Player Props

Best line per player and stat

Player	Line	Odds	Model	L5	L10	EV
Bryan Mbeumo Manchester United	Over 0.5 Shots on target · 1.33	1.33	60%	80%4/5	90%9/10	-21%
Adam Smith AFC Bournemouth	Over 0.5 Fouls committed · 1.40	1.40	58%	80%4/5	80%8/10	-19%
Harry Maguire Manchester United	Over 0.5 Shots · 1.50	1.50	49%	80%4/5	80%8/10	-26%
Andrey Santos Manchester United	Over 1.5 Fouls won · 2.20	2.20	44%	80%4/5	60%6/10	-2%
Leny Yoro Manchester United	Over 0.5 Fouls committed · 1.40	1.40	59%	60%3/5	60%6/10	-18%
Marcus Tavernier AFC Bournemouth	Over 0.5 Fouls won · 1.36	1.36	58%	40%2/5	60%6/10	-21%
Marcus Tavernier AFC Bournemouth	Over 0.5 Fouls committed · 1.36	1.36	57%	80%4/5	60%6/10	-22%
Marcus Tavernier AFC Bournemouth	Over 1.5 Shots · 1.61	1.61	38%	40%2/5	60%6/10	-39%
Mason Mount Manchester United	Over 0.5 Fouls won · 1.40	1.40	–	80%4/5	60%6/10	–
Justin Kluivert AFC Bournemouth	Over 0.5 Fouls won · 1.36	1.36	–	60%3/5	60%6/10	–
Justin Kluivert AFC Bournemouth	Over 1.5 Shots · 1.44	1.44	–	80%4/5	60%6/10	–
Kobbie Mainoo Manchester United	Over 0.5 Shots · 1.50	1.50	–	40%2/5	60%6/10	–

Player prop screener

Form Guide

Updated 21 Oct 2026

Manchester UnitedAFC Bournemouth

13
League position: 15; DDDLD
Last 5: WLLDD; 0.80
Points per game (L5): 1.00; 5
Goals scored (L5): 7; 6
Goals conceded (L5): 10; —
xG for (L5): —; —
xG against (L5): —; 0
Clean sheets (L5): 1

Head to Head

9

Manchester United wins

5

Draws

4

AFC Bournemouth wins

Last 18 meetings

3.3

Goals per game

61%

Both teams scored

67%

Over 2.5 goals

20 Mar 2026

Last meeting

Manchester United in the last 5 meetings

DDDLD

Injuries & Suspensions