Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro – Match preview
Botafogo-:-
Atlético MineiroEstádio Nilton SantosRound 34
Match Preview
Updated 29 Oct 2026FootyPulse model
39%
35%
BotafogoDraw 26%Atlético Mineiro
Bookmaker implied
43%
31%
BotafogoDraw 26%Atlético Mineiro
1.4 – 1.3
Expected score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams to score
Predictions
Full Time Result
41%
17%
BotafogoDraw 42%Atlético Mineiro
Double Chance
56%
21%
BotafogoDraw 23%Atlético Mineiro
Half Time Result
67%
27%
BotafogoDraw 6%Atlético Mineiro
Probability
Both Teams to Score
53%
Over 1.5 Goals
76%
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
29%
Over 4.5 Goals
10%
Over 0.5 Goals
52%
Over 1.5 Goals (1st Half)
57%
Over 0.5 Goals (1st Half)
82%
Match Result
Botafogo
42%2.20
fair 2.41-9%
Last 1035%7/20
Draw
27%3.50
fair 3.70-5%
Last 1010%2/20
Atlético Mineiro
31%3.00
fair 3.18-6%
Last 1055%11/20
Draw no bet
Botafogo
57%1.57
fair 1.76-11%
Last 1039%7/18
Atlético Mineiro
43%2.14
fair 2.32-8%
Last 1061%11/18
Double chance
Botafogo or draw
69%1.35
fair 1.46-7%
Last 1045%9/20
Botafogo or Atlético Mineiro
73%1.27
fair 1.37-7%
Last 1090%18/20
Draw or Atlético Mineiro
58%1.62
fair 1.71-5%
Last 1065%13/20
Expected goals 1.4–1.3 · Odds: bet365; the chance shown leans on its price.Match result screener
Goals
Expected 2.7 match goalsGoal screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 0.5 | 93% | 7% | – | 100%20/20 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 | 75% | 25% | – | 75%15/20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5main | 51% | 49% | – | 50%10/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 29% | 71% | – | 20%4/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5 | 14% | 86% | – | 5%1/20 | – |
Both teams to score
56%Yes 1.61
Last 1045%9/20
Botafogo clean sheet
24%
model chance
Atlético Mineiro clean sheet
27%
model chance
Botafogo goals
O0.5 73%O1.5 37%O2.5 14%
Atlético Mineiro goals
O0.5 76%O1.5 41%O2.5 17%
Corners
Expected 10.3 match cornersCorner screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 7.5 | 81% | 19% | – | 70%14/20 | – |
| Over/under 8.5 | 70% | 30% | – | 65%13/20 | – |
| Over/under 9.5 | 58% | 42% | – | 60%12/20 | – |
| Over/under 10.5main | 45% | 55% | – | 50%10/20 | – |
| Over/under 11.5 | 34% | 66% | – | 40%8/20 | – |
| Over/under 12.5 | 24% | 76% | – | 30%6/20 | – |
| Over/under 13.5 | 16% | 84% | – | 30%6/20 | – |
Botafogo corners
O2.5 90%O3.5 78%O4.5 62%O5.5 44%O6.5 29%O7.5 17%
Atlético Mineiro corners
O2.5 87%O3.5 73%O4.5 55%O5.5 38%O6.5 23%O7.5 13%
Cards
Expected 4.9 match cards · Referee Lucas Casagrande (4.9 cards a match, ×1.11)Card screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 | 87% | 13% | – | 75%15/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 72% | 28% | – | 50%10/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5main | 54% | 46% | – | 50%10/20 | – |
| Over/under 5.5 | 37% | 63% | – | 45%9/20 | – |
| Over/under 6.5 | 22% | 78% | – | 30%6/20 | – |
Botafogo cards
O0.5 91%O1.5 68%O2.5 42%O3.5 21%
Atlético Mineiro cards
O0.5 92%O1.5 72%O2.5 47%O3.5 25%
Player Props
Best line per player and stat| Player | Line | Odds | Model | L5 | L10 | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Renan Lodi Atlético Mineiro | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.36 | 1.36 | 58% | 60%3/5 | 70%7/10 | -22% |
Bernard Atlético Mineiro | Over 0.5 Score or assist · 2.40 | 2.40 | 31% | 80%4/5 | 60%6/10 | -26% |
Arthur Cabral Botafogo | Over 0.5 Shots on target · 1.33 | 1.33 | 53% | 20%1/5 | 50%5/10 | -29% |
Tomás Cuello Atlético Mineiro | Over 1.5 Shots · 1.40 | 1.40 | 48% | 40%2/5 | 50%5/10 | -33% |
Tiquinho Soares Botafogo | Over 0.5 Shots on target · 1.44 | 1.44 | 33% | 60%3/5 | 50%5/10 | -53% |
Alan Minda Atlético Mineiro | Over 1.5 Shots · 1.33 | 1.33 | 27% | 40%2/5 | 50%5/10 | -64% |
Bernard Atlético Mineiro | Over 0.5 Goals · 5.50 | 5.50 | 23% | 60%3/5 | 40%4/10 | +25% |
Kauan Toledo Botafogo | Over 0.5 Shots on target · 1.83 | 1.83 | 46% | 40%2/5 | 40%4/10 | -16% |
Arthur Cabral Botafogo | Over 2.5 Shots · 1.50 | 1.50 | 38% | 40%2/5 | 40%4/10 | -43% |
Álvaro Montoro Botafogo | Over 0.5 Shots on target · 1.83 | 1.83 | 30% | 20%1/5 | 40%4/10 | -45% |
Alan Minda Atlético Mineiro | Over 0.5 Shots on target · 1.53 | 1.53 | 29% | 20%1/5 | 40%4/10 | -56% |
Renan Lodi Atlético Mineiro | Over 0.5 Shots on target · 3.25 | 3.25 | 25% | 20%1/5 | 30%3/10 | -18% |
Form Guide
Updated 29 Oct 2026BotafogoAtlético Mineiro
- 11
- League position
- 7
- LLWDL
- Last 5
- LWWDW
- 0.80
- Points per game (L5)
- 2.00
- 4
- Goals scored (L5)
- 8
- 8
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 6
- 1.69
- xG for (L5)
- 0.99
- 3.36
- xG against (L5)
- 3.09
- 1
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 2
Head to Head
4
Botafogo wins
2
Draws
2
Atlético Mineiro wins
Last 8 meetings
1.8
Goals per game
25%
Both teams scored
25%
Over 2.5 goals
10 May 2026
Last meeting
Botafogo in the last 5 meetings
DWLWD
Injuries & Suspensions
Botafogo
- DaniloMuscular problems
- Jordan BarreraInner Ankle Ligament Tear
- KaioKnee Problems
- L. VillalbaUnknown Injury
- Lucas MonzónCalf Problems
Atlético Mineiro
- AlexsanderTorn Knee Ligaments
- EversonBroken Foot
- FredHamstring Injury
- Mateo CassierraHamstring Injury
- RuanHamstring Injury
- Thiago BorbasMuscle Injury
- Tomás CuelloBruised Ribs
Key Players
Serie A, this seasonBotafogo
Top scorer
Danilo
10 goals
Most assists
Alex Telles
5 assists
Best rated
Léo Linck
7.96
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VitinhoDefender | 30 (28) | 2440 | 1 | 3 | 0.22 | 6.86 | ×3 |
| Alex TellesDefender | 30 (30) | 2366 | 4 | 5 | 0.02 | 6.96 | ×3 |
| Nahuel FerraresiDefender | 26 (24) | 2178 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 7.05 | ×8 |
| Arthur CabralAttacker | 27 (26) | 2129 | 7 | 2 | 0.38 | 6.98 | ×4 |
| DaniloMidfielder | 25 (24) | 2102 | 10 | 2 | – | 7.23 | ×2 |
| Álvaro MontoroMidfielder | 28 (23) | 1869 | 1 | 5 | – | 6.87 | ×6 |
| Cristian MedinaMidfielder | 25 (22) | 1756 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 6.74 | ×4 |
| Matheus MartinsMidfielder | 26 (18) | 1475 | 4 | 1 | 0.07 | 6.85 | ×2 |
| HuguinhoMidfielder | 16 (14) | 1178 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 6.80 | ×5 |
| Alexander BarbozaDefender | 12 (12) | 1035 | 1 | 2 | – | 6.77 | ×5 |
| Gabriel BatistaGoalkeeper | 11 (11) | 990 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.84 | – |
| Gabriel JustinoDefender | 13 (9) | 900 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.70 | ×3 |
| MarçalDefender | 15 (8) | 883 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 6.90 | ×5 |
| Júnior SantosAttacker | 21 (8) | 857 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 6.60 | ×2 |
| NetoGoalkeeper | 10 (10) | 855 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.68 |
Atlético Mineiro
Top scorer
Tomás Cuello
6 goals
Most assists
Bernard
4 assists
Best rated
Léo Duarte
7.31
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan LodiDefender | 27 (25) | 2270 | 1 | 3 | 0.14 | 6.97 | ×4 |
| EversonGoalkeeper | 23 (23) | 2070 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.98 | – |
| NatanaelDefender | 23 (23) | 1934 | 0 | 3 | – | 6.79 | |
| Tomás CuelloMidfielder | 26 (21) | 1871 | 6 | 2 | – | 7.09 | ×3 |
| Victor HugoMidfielder | 25 (21) | 1782 | 4 | 2 | 0.17 | 6.96 | |
| Alan FrancoMidfielder | 22 (21) | 1780 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.70 | ×6 |
| RuanDefender | 20 (20) | 1753 | 2 | 0 | – | 6.96 | ×7 |
| BernardMidfielder | 26 (20) | 1506 | 5 | 4 | 0.64 | 6.92 | – |
| MayconMidfielder | 20 (17) | 1411 | 2 | 1 | – | 6.77 | – |
| Vitor HugoDefender | 18 (12) | 1121 | 3 | 0 | – | 6.82 | ×3 |
| ReinierMidfielder | 23 (13) | 1116 | 4 | 2 | – | 6.93 | |
| Mateo CassierraAttacker | 22 (10) | 1085 | 3 | 2 | – | 6.76 | |
| Tomás PérezMidfielder | 16 (12) | 969 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.62 | ×2 |
| HulkAttacker | 12 (11) | 912 | 1 | 3 | – | 6.93 | |
| LyancoDefender | 12 (10) | 904 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.96 | ×3 |
Referee
Lucas Casagrande
Referee
- Cards per game
- 4.87
- Yellow cards per game
- 4.59
- Red cards per game
- 0.28
- Fouls per game
- 28.4
- Penalties per game
- 0.31
- Home wins
- 56%
Averages across 39 completed matches officiated by Lucas Casagrande in our database.
Odds Comparison
Asian Handicap
| Bookmaker | 2 | 1 | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.87 | 1.97 | — | — |
| Dafabet | — | — | 1.88 | 1.89 |
| Marathonbet | — | — | 2.20 | 1.62 |
| MelBet | — | — | 2.24 | 1.64 |
Goals Over/Under
| Bookmaker | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.72 | 2.07 |