Inter vs Fiorentina – Match preview
Inter-:-
FiorentinaStadio Giuseppe Meazza
Match Preview
Updated 21 Oct 2026FootyPulse model
90%
5%
InterDraw 5%Fiorentina
Bookmaker implied
70%
12%
InterDraw 18%Fiorentina
6.4 – 1.8
Expected score
99%
Over 2.5 goals
88%
Both teams to score
Match Result
Inter
66%1.35
fair 1.51-10%
Last 1055%11/20
Draw
19%5.75
fair 5.41+6%
Last 1020%4/20
Fiorentina
15%8.05
fair 6.64disputed
Last 1025%5/20
Draw no bet
Inter
82%1.12
fair 1.23-9%
Last 1069%11/16
Fiorentina
18%6.65
fair 5.41disputed
Last 1031%5/16
Double chance
Inter or draw
85%1.09
fair 1.18-7%
Last 1075%15/20
Inter or Fiorentina
82%1.16
fair 1.23-5%
Last 1080%16/20
Draw or Fiorentina
34%3.35
fair 2.98disputed
Last 1045%9/20
Expected goals 2.1–1.3 · Odds: Pinnacle; the chance shown leans on its price.Match result screener
Goals
Expected 3.4 match goalsGoal screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 0.5 | 97% | 3% | – | 100%20/20 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 | 85% | 15% | – | 95%19/20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 | 66% | 34% | 1.41 / 2.96 | 85%17/20 | none |
| Over/under 3.5main | 45% | 55% | 2.07 / 1.80 | 55%11/20 | none |
| Over/under 4.5 | 25% | 75% | – | 35%7/20 | – |
Both teams to score
61%Yes 1.66
Last 1075%15/20
Inter clean sheet
23%
model chance
Fiorentina clean sheet
15%
model chance
Inter goals
O0.5 85%O1.5 57%O2.5 30%
Fiorentina goals
O0.5 77%O1.5 43%O2.5 18%
Corners
Expected 9.0 match cornersCorner screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 7.5 | 68% | 32% | – | 55%11/20 | – |
| Over/under 8.5 | 59% | 41% | 1.48 / 2.57 | 40%8/20 | Under +5% |
| Over/under 9.5main | 47% | 53% | 1.84 / 1.99 | 30%6/20 | Under +6% |
| Over/under 10.5 | 35% | 65% | 2.31 / 1.59 | 30%6/20 | Under +3% |
| Over/under 11.5 | 20% | 80% | – | 25%5/20 | – |
| Over/under 12.5 | 13% | 87% | – | 25%5/20 | – |
| Over/under 13.5 | 8% | 92% | – | 20%4/20 | – |
Inter corners
O2.5 85%O3.5 70%O4.5 52%O5.5 34%O6.5 20%O7.5 11%
Fiorentina corners
O2.5 80%O3.5 62%O4.5 42%O5.5 26%O6.5 14%O7.5 7%
Cards
Expected 4.0 match cards · Referee Maurizio Mariani (3.9 cards a match, ×0.92)Card screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 | 76% | 24% | – | 75%15/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5main | 56% | 44% | – | 55%11/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5 | 37% | 63% | – | 35%7/20 | – |
| Over/under 5.5 | 21% | 79% | – | 25%5/20 | – |
| Over/under 6.5 | 11% | 89% | – | 10%2/20 | – |
Inter cards
O0.5 85%O1.5 57%O2.5 30%O3.5 13%
Fiorentina cards
O0.5 87%O1.5 61%O2.5 34%O3.5 15%
Player Props
Best line per player and stat| Player | Line | Odds | Model | L5 | L10 | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cher Ndour Fiorentina | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.40 | 1.40 | 71% | 80%4/5 | 80%8/10 | 0% |
Marcus Thuram Inter | Over 0.5 Score or assist · 1.44 | 1.44 | 53% | 80%4/5 | 70%7/10 | -24% |
Franco Mastantuono Fiorentina | Over 0.5 Shots on target · 1.44 | 1.44 | 62% | 80%4/5 | 60%6/10 | -11% |
Manuel Akanji Inter | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.40 | 1.40 | 50% | 80%4/5 | 60%6/10 | -29% |
Radu Drăgușin Fiorentina | Over 0.5 Shots · 3.00 | 3.00 | 35% | 40%2/5 | 50%5/10 | +5% |
Marcus Thuram Inter | Over 0.5 Goals · 1.80 | 1.80 | 40% | 60%3/5 | 50%5/10 | -29% |
Hakan Çalhanoğlu Inter | Over 0.5 Shots on target · 1.44 | 1.44 | – | 40%2/5 | 50%5/10 | – |
Franco Mastantuono Fiorentina | Over 2.5 Shots · 1.66 | 1.66 | 48% | 60%3/5 | 40%4/10 | -21% |
Nicolò Barella Inter | Over 0.5 Shots on target · 2.00 | 2.00 | 38% | 40%2/5 | 40%4/10 | -25% |
Mateo Pellegrino Fiorentina | Over 0.5 Shots on target · 1.53 | 1.53 | 49% | 60%3/5 | 40%4/10 | -25% |
Petar Sučić Inter | Over 0.5 Shots on target · 2.00 | 2.00 | 35% | 60%3/5 | 40%4/10 | -30% |
Nicolò Barella Inter | Over 1.5 Shots · 1.66 | 1.66 | 39% | 40%2/5 | 40%4/10 | -36% |
Form Guide
Updated 21 Oct 2026InterFiorentina
- 1
- League position
- 18
- WWDWW
- Last 5
- LLDWL
- 2.60
- Points per game (L5)
- 0.80
- 16
- Goals scored (L5)
- 8
- 8
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 10
- —
- xG for (L5)
- —
- —
- xG against (L5)
- —
- 1
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 0
Head to Head
29
Inter wins
9
Draws
9
Fiorentina wins
Last 47 meetings
3.0
Goals per game
57%
Both teams scored
60%
Over 2.5 goals
22 Mar 2026
Last meeting
Inter in the last 5 meetings
DWWLW
Injuries & Suspensions
Inter
- Benjamin PavardAdductor Pain
- Curtis JonesAdductor Injury
- Lautaro MartínezHamstring Injury
Fiorentina
- Arthur AttaStress Reaction Of The Bone
- Luca RanieriFoot Injury
Confirmed Line-ups
Inter
- 1Josep MartínezGoalkeeper
- 31Yann BisseckDefender
- 25Manuel AkanjiDefender
- 95Alessandro BastoniDefender
- 11Luis HenriqueMidfielder
- 23Nicolò BarellaMidfielder
- 7Piotr ZielinskiMidfielder
- 8Petar SučićMidfielder
- 32Federico DimarcoMidfielder
- 9Marcus ThuramAttacker
- 94Pio EspositoAttacker
Fiorentina
- 43David de GeaGoalkeeper
- 20Alejandro Jiménez SánchezDefender
- 3Radu DrăgușinDefender
- 5Marin PongracicDefender
- 33VieryDefender
- 27Cher NdourMidfielder
- 28Pedro GonçalvesMidfielder
- 44Nicolò FagioliMidfielder
- 30Franco MastantuonoAttacker
- 32Mateo PellegrinoAttacker
- 25Alieu NjieAttacker
Key Players
Serie A, this seasonInter
Top scorer
Marcus Thuram
4 goals
Most assists
Andy Diouf
3 assists
Best rated
Nicolò Barella
7.54
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josep MartínezGoalkeeper | 7 (7) | 630 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.85 | – |
| Nicolò BarellaMidfielder | 6 (6) | 540 | 1 | 2 | – | 7.54 | |
| Manuel AkanjiDefender | 6 (6) | 503 | 0 | 1 | – | 7.20 | ×2 |
| Alessandro BastoniDefender | 6 (6) | 482 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.01 | |
| Yann BisseckDefender | 6 (5) | 459 | 1 | 1 | – | 7.17 | – |
| Federico DimarcoMidfielder | 7 (6) | 458 | 0 | 1 | – | 7.24 | – |
| Andy DioufMidfielder | 6 (5) | 439 | 0 | 3 | – | 6.97 | – |
| Piotr ZielińskiMidfielder | 6 (5) | 431 | 1 | 2 | – | 7.07 | – |
| Pio EspositoAttacker | 7 (6) | 411 | 2 | 1 | – | 7.18 | |
| Marcus ThuramAttacker | 6 (4) | 369 | 4 | 2 | – | 7.15 | |
| Petar SučićMidfielder | 6 (4) | 363 | 1 | 0 | – | 7.11 | – |
| Lautaro MartínezAttacker | 5 (4) | 353 | 4 | 0 | – | 7.44 | ×2 |
| Carlos AugustoDefender | 5 (2) | 265 | 2 | 2 | – | 7.39 | |
| Hakan ÇalhanoğluMidfielder | 5 (3) | 209 | 3 | 0 | – | 7.39 | |
| Luis HenriqueAttacker | 5 (2) | 209 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.70 | – |
Fiorentina
Top scorer
Franco Mastantuono
3 goals
Most assists
Cher Ndour
2 assists
Best rated
Franco Mastantuono
7.21
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radu DrăgușinDefender | 7 (7) | 630 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.70 | |
| David de GeaGoalkeeper | 7 (7) | 630 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.57 | |
| Cher NdourMidfielder | 7 (6) | 566 | 0 | 2 | – | 6.94 | |
| Nicolò FagioliMidfielder | 7 (6) | 541 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.94 | |
| Franco MastantuonoMidfielder | 7 (7) | 536 | 3 | 0 | – | 7.21 | ×2 |
| Mateo PellegrinoAttacker | 7 (5) | 467 | 2 | 0 | – | 6.91 | |
| Álex JiménezDefender | 6 (5) | 441 | 1 | 1 | – | 6.61 | |
| Alieu NjieAttacker | 5 (4) | 373 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.69 | |
| VieryDefender | 6 (4) | 363 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.33 | |
| Víctor ValdepeñasDefender | 6 (3) | 350 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.40 | – |
| Arthur AttaMidfielder | 5 (4) | 335 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.54 | – |
| Luca RanieriDefender | 4 (4) | 310 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.22 | ×2 |
| Wilfried GnontoAttacker | 5 (1) | 193 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.70 | – |
| João MárioDefender | 3 (2) | 176 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.68 | – |
| BetoAttacker | 5 (2) | 174 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.51 | – |
Referee
Maurizio Mariani
Referee · Italy
- Cards per game
- 3.93
- Yellow cards per game
- 3.77
- Red cards per game
- 0.16
- Fouls per game
- 23.6
- Penalties per game
- 0.21
- Home wins
- 48%
Averages across 43 completed matches officiated by Maurizio Mariani in our database.
Odds Comparison
Goals Over/Under
| Bookmaker | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 2.75 | 1.44 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38 | 1.28 |