Ethiopia vs Mozambique Prediction & Stats (17 Nov)

Data provider's forecast

Full Time Result

39%

35%

EthiopiaDraw 26%Mozambique

First Half Result

30%

EthiopiaDraw 40%Mozambique

Team to Score First

48%

44%

EthiopiaNo goal 8%Mozambique

Probability

Both Teams to Score

50%

Over 1.5 Goals

73%

Over 2.5 Goals

49%

Over 3.5 Goals

28%

Ethiopia Over 3.5 Goals

5%

Ethiopia Over 1.5 Goals

37%

Mozambique Over 0.5 Goals

67%

Ethiopia Over 0.5 Goals

71%

Match Result

Ethiopia

43%–

model 2.31–

Last 1050%7/14

Draw

28%–

model 3.58–

Last 107%1/14

Mozambique

29%–

model 3.49–

Last 1043%6/14

Draw no bet

Ethiopia

60%–

model 1.66–

Last 1054%7/13

Mozambique

40%–

model 2.51–

Last 1046%6/13

Double chance

Ethiopia or draw

71%–

model 1.40–

Last 1057%8/14

Ethiopia or Mozambique

72%–

model 1.39–

Last 1093%13/14

Draw or Mozambique

57%–

model 1.77–

Last 1050%7/14

Expected goals 1.5–1.2 · No bookmaker price yet: model chances only.Match result screener

Goals

Expected 2.7 match goalsGoal screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	EV O / U
Over/under 0.5	93%	7%	–	100%14/14	–
Over/under 1.5	74%	26%	–	57%8/14	–
Over/under 2.5main	50%	50%	–	50%7/14	–
Over/under 3.5	28%	72%	–	29%4/14	–
Over/under 4.5	13%	87%	–	14%2/14	–

Both teams to score

54%

Last 1043%6/14

Ethiopia clean sheet

27%

model chance

Mozambique clean sheet

25%

model chance

Ethiopia goals

O0.5 75%O1.5 40%O2.5 16%

Mozambique goals

O0.5 73%O1.5 37%O2.5 14%

Corners

Expected 8.7 match cornersCorner screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	EV O / U
Over/under 7.5	64%	36%	–	50%6/12	–
Over/under 8.5main	50%	50%	–	42%5/12	–
Over/under 9.5	37%	63%	–	33%4/12	–
Over/under 10.5	26%	74%	–	25%3/12	–
Over/under 11.5	17%	83%	–	8%1/12	–
Over/under 12.5	10%	90%	–	0%0/12	–
Over/under 13.5	6%	94%	–	0%0/12	–

Ethiopia corners

O2.5 86%O3.5 72%O4.5 54%O5.5 36%O6.5 22%O7.5 12%

Mozambique corners

O2.5 73%O3.5 53%O4.5 33%O5.5 18%O6.5 9%O7.5 4%

Cards

Expected 3.7 match cards · Referee Lamin Jammeh (3.0 cards a match, ×0.96)Card screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	EV O / U
Over/under 2.5	71%	29%	–	77%10/13	–
Over/under 3.5main	50%	50%	–	54%7/13	–
Over/under 4.5	31%	69%	–	23%3/13	–
Over/under 5.5	17%	83%	–	0%0/13	–
Over/under 6.5	8%	92%	–	0%0/13	–

Ethiopia cards

O0.5 86%O1.5 59%O2.5 32%O3.5 14%

Mozambique cards

O0.5 81%O1.5 50%O2.5 24%O3.5 9%

Form Guide

Updated 08 Nov 2026

EthiopiaMozambique

11
League position: 13; LLWW
Last 5: WD; 1.50
Points per game (L5): 2.00; 4
Goals scored (L5): 5; 2
Goals conceded (L5): 2; —
xG for (L5): —; —
xG against (L5): —; 2
Clean sheets (L5): 0

Key Players

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications, this season

Ethiopia

Top scorer

—

Most assists

—

Best rated

Chernet Gugsa

6.47

Ethiopia squad statistics in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications this season
Player	Apps	Min	xG	Rating	Cards
Chernet GugsaMidfielder	2 (2)	180	–	6.47	–
Yared BayeDefender	2 (2)	180	–	6.37
Bekele BerhaneDefender	2 (2)	180	–	6.26	–
Abubeker NuraGoalkeeper	2 (2)	180	–	6.30	–
Habtamu TekesteMidfielder	2 (2)	180	–	6.43	–
Canaan MarknehAttacker	2 (2)	172	–	6.27	–
Gatoch PanomMidfielder	2 (2)	172	–	6.47
Abel Yalew TilahunAttacker	2 (2)	122	–	6.45	–
Mesfin TafesseMidfielder	1 (1)	61	–	6.45
Fitsum TilahunAttacker	2 (0)	60	–	6.44	–
Binyam FikreAttacker	1 (1)	59	–	7.05	–
Binyam BelayMidfielder	1 (0)	44	–	6.36	–
Dawa HotessaAttacker	1 (0)	8	–	6.48	–

Mozambique

Top scorer

Chamito Alfandega

2 goals

Most assists

Ricardo Guimarães

1 assists

Best rated

Ricardo Guimarães

7.53

Mozambique squad statistics in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications this season
Player	Apps	Min	G	A	xG	Rating	Cards
Edmilson DoveDefender	2 (2)	180	0	0	–	6.79	–
Bruno LangaDefender	2 (2)	180	0	0	–	6.85
Ernan SiluaneGoalkeeper	2 (2)	180	0	0	–	6.83	–
Ricardo GuimarãesMidfielder	2 (2)	180	1	1	–	7.53	×2
Bruno WilsonDefender	2 (2)	180	0	0	–	6.75	–
Geny CatamoAttacker	2 (2)	180	1	0	–	7.11	–
Alfonso AmadeMidfielder	2 (2)	165	1	1	–	7.12
Witiness QuemboAttacker	2 (2)	132	1	1	–	6.56
BheuDefender	2 (2)	118	0	0	–	6.72	–
Faisal BangalAttacker	2 (2)	112	0	0	–	6.41	–
Gildo VilanculosMidfielder	2 (2)	89	0	0	–	6.19	–
Chamito AlfandegaAttacker	2 (0)	68	2	0	–	7.97	–
Edson Joelder Lobo MucuanaAttacker	1 (0)	24	0	0	–	6.14	–
Fernando ChambocoDefender	1 (0)	24	0	0	–	–	–
Oscar Cherene	1 (0)	18	0	0	–	–	–

Referee

Lamin Jammeh

Referee · Gambia

Cards per game: 3.00
Yellow cards per game: 3.00
Red cards per game: 0.00
Fouls per game: 29.5
Penalties per game: 0.00
Home wins: 50%

Averages across 2 completed matches officiated by Lamin Jammeh in our database. Full referee profile and card-line form

Odds Comparison

Asian Handicap

Bookmaker	Home	Away
MelBet	2.42	1.47

Ethiopia vs Mozambique Prediction – Match preview

Data provider's forecast

Match Result

Draw no bet

Double chance

Goals

Ethiopia goals

Mozambique goals

Corners

Ethiopia corners

Mozambique corners

Cards

Ethiopia cards

Mozambique cards

Form Guide

Key Players

Ethiopia

Mozambique

Referee

Odds Comparison

Asian Handicap

More on Ethiopia vs Mozambique