Southampton vs Derby County Prediction – Match preview
Southampton-:-
Derby CountySt. Mary's StadiumRound 16
Our prediction
Southampton to win (78%)
Southampton 78% · Draw 13% · Derby County 8%
Our model and the bookmakers disagree strongly on this match, which usually means the model is missing team news, so this call blends the two.
Match Preview
Updated 10 Nov 2026FootyPulse model
91%
3%
SouthamptonDraw 6%Derby County
Bookmaker implied
67%
14%
SouthamptonDraw 19%Derby County
3.7 – 0.6
Expected score
80%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Both teams to score
Data provider's forecast
Full Time Result
63%
15%
SouthamptonDraw 22%Derby County
First Half Result
45%
17%
SouthamptonDraw 38%Derby County
Team to Score First
64%
29%
SouthamptonNo goal 7%Derby County
Probability
Both Teams to Score
51%
Over 1.5 Goals
77%
Over 2.5 Goals
56%
Over 3.5 Goals
34%
Southampton Over 3.5 Goals
16%
Southampton Over 1.5 Goals
59%
Derby County Over 0.5 Goals
49%
Southampton Over 0.5 Goals
85%
Form Guide
Updated 10 Nov 2026SouthamptonDerby County
- 4
- League position
- 23
- LDWWD
- Last 5
- WLLDL
- 1.60
- Points per game (L5)
- 0.80
- 8
- Goals scored (L5)
- 5
- 5
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 11
- 5.97
- xG for (L5)
- 4.22
- 6.23
- xG against (L5)
- 11.22
- 1
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 0
Head to Head
6
Southampton wins
9
Draws
4
Derby County wins
Last 19 meetings
2.6
Goals per game
58%
Both teams scored
53%
Over 2.5 goals
Last meeting
Southampton in the last 5 meetings
WDDDL
Key Players
Championship, this seasonSouthampton
Top scorer
Cyle Larin
7 goals
Most assists
Finn Azaz
5 assists
Best rated
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
7.24
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel PeretzGoalkeeper | 15 (15) | 1350 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.03 | – |
| James BreeDefender | 15 (14) | 1288 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 6.95 | ×2 |
| Finn AzazMidfielder | 15 (14) | 1279 | 3 | 5 | 0.63 | 7.23 | |
| Keven SchlotterbeckDefender | 13 (13) | 1088 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 7.14 | |
| Ryan ManningDefender | 15 (12) | 1077 | 1 | 3 | 0.15 | 7.02 | ×4 |
| Kuryu MatsukiMidfielder | 15 (11) | 1057 | 4 | 1 | 0.97 | 6.82 | |
| James Ward-ProwseMidfielder | 13 (11) | 1048 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 7.23 | – |
| Leo ScienzaMidfielder | 13 (13) | 974 | 2 | 2 | 0.77 | 7.23 | – |
| Flynn DownesMidfielder | 13 (12) | 939 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | 6.96 | ×4 |
| Jack StephensDefender | 11 (10) | 903 | 0 | 0 | 0.23 | 6.92 | – |
| Cyle LarinAttacker | 11 (10) | 731 | 7 | 0 | – | 7.08 | ×3 |
| Nathan WoodDefender | 7 (6) | 546 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.72 | ×2 |
| Lewis DobbinAttacker | 13 (5) | 508 | 1 | 0 | 1.05 | 6.60 | |
| Cameron BraggMidfielder | 9 (6) | 473 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 6.81 | ×2 |
| Samuel EdozieMidfielder | 11 (2) | 330 | 1 | 1 | 0.49 | 6.66 | – |
Derby County
Top scorer
Bobby Clark
3 goals
Most assists
Bobby Clark
2 assists
Best rated
Eiran Cashin
7.33
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby ClarkMidfielder | 15 (14) | 1275 | 3 | 2 | 0.65 | 6.87 | |
| Dion SandersonDefender | 13 (13) | 1102 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.60 | ×3 |
| Jacob Widell ZetterströmGoalkeeper | 11 (11) | 995 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.03 | – |
| Sammie SzmodicsMidfielder | 13 (12) | 988 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 6.86 | |
| Carlton MorrisAttacker | 11 (11) | 948 | 1 | 2 | 1.01 | 7.04 | |
| Alex MowattMidfielder | 12 (9) | 831 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 6.88 | ×3 |
| Sondre LangåsDefender | 10 (10) | 822 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.67 | ×4 |
| Ryan HedgesMidfielder | 12 (10) | 798 | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | 6.68 | |
| David OzohMidfielder | 10 (9) | 742 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.64 | ×3 |
| Joe WardDefender | 10 (7) | 712 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.96 | – |
| Charlie TaylorDefender | 8 (8) | 712 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.72 | |
| Ryan NyambeDefender | 9 (6) | 616 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 6.53 | ×2 |
| Mohammed FuseiniMidfielder | 10 (6) | 582 | 1 | 2 | 0.80 | 6.73 | ×2 |
| Rhian BrewsterAttacker | 12 (5) | 483 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 6.61 | ×2 |
| Lewis TravisMidfielder | 7 (5) | 478 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.55 | ×2 |
Odds Comparison
Asian Handicap
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.82 | 2.02 | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — | 2.02 | 1.73 |
| MelBet | — | — | 2.02 | 1.72 |
| Pinnacle | — | — | 1.85 | 2.00 |
| Sbo | — | — | 1.90 | 1.98 |
Goals Over/Under
| Bookmaker | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.53 | 2.50 |
| Betano.dk | 16.50 | 1.01 |
More on Southampton vs Derby County
- Southampton stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Derby County stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Championship (England) table & fixturesStandings, results and league leaders
- Mathematical football predictionsThis week's model probabilities for every match
- Over/under goals screenerGoal-line hit rates for every upcoming match
- Corner stats screenerCorner lines and hit rates by fixture