Pachuca vs Toluca Prediction – Match preview
Pachuca-:-
TolucaEstadio HidalgoRound 17
Our prediction
Toluca to win (51%)
Pachuca 27% · Draw 21% · Toluca 51% · Over 2.5 goals: 70% · Both teams to score: 68%
From our goals model. A chance, not a certainty.
Match Preview
Updated 10 Nov 2026FootyPulse model
28%
51%
PachucaDraw 21%Toluca
Bookmaker implied
36%
40%
PachucaDraw 24%Toluca
1.5 – 2.1
Expected score
70%
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Both teams to score
Data provider's forecast
Full Time Result
32%
42%
PachucaDraw 26%Toluca
First Half Result
29%
30%
PachucaDraw 41%Toluca
Team to Score First
46%
47%
PachucaNo goal 7%Toluca
Probability
Both Teams to Score
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
75%
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
31%
Pachuca Over 3.5 Goals
4%
Pachuca Over 1.5 Goals
34%
Toluca Over 0.5 Goals
74%
Pachuca Over 0.5 Goals
66%
Form Guide
Updated 10 Nov 2026PachucaToluca
- 8
- League position
- 6
- WWWLL
- Last 5
- WDDDD
- 1.80
- Points per game (L5)
- 1.40
- 11
- Goals scored (L5)
- 10
- 6
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 6
- 7.30
- xG for (L5)
- 7.28
- 6.64
- xG against (L5)
- 5.80
- 1
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 1
Head to Head
18
Pachuca wins
15
Draws
20
Toluca wins
Last 53 meetings
2.8
Goals per game
53%
Both teams scored
53%
Over 2.5 goals
Last meeting
Pachuca in the last 5 meetings
WWDDL
Key Players
Liga MX, this seasonPachuca
Top scorer
Salomón Rondón
16 goals
Most assists
Oussama Idrissi
5 assists
Best rated
Salomón Rondón
7.60
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Agustín Moreno LunaGoalkeeper | 16 (16) | 1440 | 1 | 0 | – | 7.16 | ×2 |
| Sergio Damián BarretoDefender | 15 (15) | 1350 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 6.97 | ×6 |
| Salomón RondónAttacker | 16 (16) | 1347 | 16 | 2 | 4.04 | 7.60 | – |
| Christian RiveraMidfielder | 15 (15) | 1322 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | 6.82 | ×2 |
| Eduardo Gabriel dos Santos BauermannDefender | 15 (15) | 1293 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 7.11 | ×3 |
| Oussama IdrissiMidfielder | 16 (15) | 1171 | 3 | 5 | 0.78 | 7.26 | ×4 |
| Francisco VenegasDefender | 14 (14) | 1166 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 6.85 | ×6 |
| Rodolfo PizarroMidfielder | 15 (10) | 915 | 0 | 4 | 0.48 | 6.81 | ×3 |
| Alán Ernesto Bautista GutiérrezMidfielder | 15 (11) | 850 | 2 | 0 | 0.50 | 6.79 | ×2 |
| Javier VallejoAttacker | 16 (7) | 780 | 0 | 3 | 0.47 | 6.88 | ×2 |
| Carlos Adrián Sánchez NavaDefender | 9 (6) | 570 | 0 | 2 | – | 7.01 | ×5 |
| Jorge Ernesto Berlanga VázquezDefender | 7 (6) | 557 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 6.73 | – |
| Elías MontielMidfielder | 7 (7) | 519 | 1 | 1 | – | 7.04 | – |
| KenedyMidfielder | 11 (7) | 498 | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 6.65 | ×3 |
| Sergio Lenin RodriguezMidfielder | 7 (6) | 451 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.50 |
Toluca
Top scorer
Federico Viñas
7 goals
Most assists
Helinho
8 assists
Best rated
Helinho
7.41
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico PereiraDefender | 13 (13) | 1126 | 0 | 0 | 0.30 | 7.16 | ×2 |
| Franco RomeroMidfielder | 13 (12) | 1026 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 6.68 | ×4 |
| Jesús GallardoDefender | 12 (10) | 968 | 2 | 1 | 0.66 | 6.96 | ×2 |
| HelinhoMidfielder | 14 (10) | 878 | 4 | 8 | 0.64 | 7.41 | ×4 |
| Everardo del VillarDefender | 11 (10) | 855 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 6.82 | |
| Nicolás CastroMidfielder | 13 (8) | 848 | 1 | 3 | 0.30 | 7.11 | ×2 |
| Alexis VegaMidfielder | 13 (11) | 830 | 4 | 2 | 1.58 | 7.33 | ×2 |
| Luis GarcíaGoalkeeper | 9 (9) | 795 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.10 | – |
| Bruno MéndezDefender | 10 (9) | 788 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.88 | |
| Federico ViñasAttacker | 12 (7) | 738 | 7 | 1 | 1.75 | 7.14 | – |
| Jorge DíazMidfielder | 14 (7) | 681 | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 6.74 | – |
| PaulinhoAttacker | 9 (7) | 650 | 4 | 0 | 0.91 | 7.03 | – |
| Jesús AnguloMidfielder | 14 (7) | 578 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | 6.85 | – |
| Érick Gabriel Gutiérrez GalavizMidfielder | 10 (7) | 576 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 6.83 | – |
| Hugo GonzálezGoalkeeper | 7 (6) | 555 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.01 | – |
Odds Comparison
Asian Handicap
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.95 | 1.85 | — | — |
| Dafabet | — | — | 1.92 | 1.83 |
| Marathonbet | — | — | 2.09 | 1.67 |
| MelBet | — | — | 2.09 | 1.67 |
| Pinnacle | — | — | 1.90 | 1.94 |
Goals Over/Under
| Bookmaker | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.47 | 2.60 |
| Betano.dk | 15.50 | 1.02 |
More on Pachuca vs Toluca
- Pachuca stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Toluca stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Liga MX (Mexico) table & fixturesStandings, results and league leaders
- Mathematical football predictionsThis week's model probabilities for every match
- Over/under goals screenerGoal-line hit rates for every upcoming match
- Corner stats screenerCorner lines and hit rates by fixture