Vélez Sarsfield vs Belgrano Prediction – Match preview

Saturday, 21 November 2026 · 00:00

Vélez Sarsfield

-:-

Belgrano

Estadio José Amalfitani

Our prediction

A draw (35%)

Vélez Sarsfield 33% · Draw 35% · Belgrano 32% · Over 2.5 goals: 22% · Both teams to score: 31%

From our goals model. A chance, not a certainty.

Match Preview

Updated 13 Nov 2026

FootyPulse model

33%

32%

Vélez SarsfieldDraw 35%Belgrano

Bookmaker implied

43%

27%

Vélez SarsfieldDraw 30%Belgrano

0.8 – 0.8

Expected score

22%

Over 2.5 goals

31%

Both teams to score

Match Result

Vélez Sarsfield

43%2.23

model 2.30-3%

Last 1035%7/20

Draw

29%3.20

model 3.41-6%

Last 1040%8/20

Belgrano

27%3.49

model 3.65-4%

Last 1025%5/20

Draw no bet

Vélez Sarsfield

61%1.53

model 1.63-6%

Last 1058%7/12

Belgrano

39%2.40

model 2.58-7%

Last 1042%5/12

Double chance

Vélez Sarsfield or draw

73%1.31

model 1.38-5%

Last 1075%15/20

Vélez Sarsfield or Belgrano

71%1.36

model 1.41-4%

Last 1060%12/20

Draw or Belgrano

57%1.67

model 1.77-5%

Last 1065%13/20

Expected goals 1.5–1.1 · Odds: Pinnacle; the chance shown leans on its price.Match result screener

Goals

Expected 2.6 match goalsGoal screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	EV O / U
Over/under 0.5	93%	7%	–	95%19/20	–
Over/under 1.5	74%	26%	–	75%15/20	–
Over/under 2.5main	49%	51%	–	40%8/20	–
Over/under 3.5	27%	73%	–	25%5/20	–
Over/under 4.5	13%	87%	–	10%2/20	–

Both teams to score

51%Yes 1.95

Last 1050%10/20

Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet

29%

model chance

Belgrano clean sheet

25%

model chance

Vélez Sarsfield goals

O0.5 75%O1.5 41%O2.5 17%

Belgrano goals

O0.5 71%O1.5 35%O2.5 13%

Corners

Expected 9.7 match cornersCorner screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	EV O / U
Over/under 7.5	75%	25%	–	80%16/20	–
Over/under 8.5	63%	37%	–	70%14/20	–
Over/under 9.5main	50%	50%	–	50%10/20	–
Over/under 10.5	37%	63%	–	30%6/20	–
Over/under 11.5	27%	74%	–	15%3/20	–
Over/under 12.5	18%	82%	–	10%2/20	–
Over/under 13.5	11%	89%	–	10%2/20	–

Vélez Sarsfield corners

O2.5 86%O3.5 72%O4.5 54%O5.5 36%O6.5 22%O7.5 12%

Belgrano corners

O2.5 86%O3.5 71%O4.5 52%O5.5 35%O6.5 21%O7.5 11%

Cards

Expected 4.5 match cardsCard screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	EV O / U
Over/under 2.5	83%	18%	–	85%17/20	–
Over/under 3.5	66%	34%	–	65%13/20	–
Over/under 4.5main	47%	53%	–	50%10/20	–
Over/under 5.5	30%	70%	–	35%7/20	–
Over/under 6.5	17%	83%	–	25%5/20	–

Vélez Sarsfield cards

O0.5 88%O1.5 62%O2.5 35%O3.5 16%

Belgrano cards

O0.5 91%O1.5 69%O2.5 43%O3.5 22%

Player Props

Best line per player and stat

Player	Line	Odds	Model	L5	L10	EV
Franco Vázquez Belgrano	Over 1.5 Shots · 1.30	1.30	–	60%3/5	60%6/10	–
Jano Gordon Vélez Sarsfield	Over 0.5 Shots · 1.66	1.66	–	60%3/5	60%6/10	–
Thiago Silvero Vélez Sarsfield	Over 0.5 Shots · 1.66	1.66	–	60%3/5	60%6/10	–
Ronaldo Martínez Vélez Sarsfield	Over 0.5 Score or assist · 1.80	1.80	–	40%2/5	50%5/10	–
Ronaldo Martínez Vélez Sarsfield	Over 0.5 Goals · 2.20	2.20	–	40%2/5	50%5/10	–
Lucas Robertone Vélez Sarsfield	Over 1.5 Shots · 1.40	1.40	–	80%4/5	50%5/10	–
Matías Pellegrini Vélez Sarsfield	Over 0.5 Score or assist · 2.50	2.50	–	60%3/5	50%5/10	–
Matías Pellegrini Vélez Sarsfield	Over 1.5 Shots · 1.33	1.33	–	80%4/5	50%5/10	–
Juan Cruz Policella Vélez Sarsfield	Over 0.5 Score or assist · 2.50	2.50	–	60%3/5	44%4/9	–
Ramiro Tulián Belgrano	Over 0.5 Shots · 1.33	1.33	–	40%2/5	43%3/7	–
Federico Ricca Belgrano	Over 0.5 Shots · 1.53	1.53	–	40%2/5	40%4/10	–
Rodrigo Aliendro Vélez Sarsfield	Over 1.5 Shots · 1.40	1.40	–	40%2/5	40%4/10	–
Diego Valdés Vélez Sarsfield	Over 0.5 Score or assist · 2.20	2.20	–	0%0/5	40%4/10	–
Lucas Passerini Belgrano	Over 0.5 Score or assist · 2.60	2.60	–	40%2/5	40%4/10	–
Santiago Longo Belgrano	Over 0.5 Shots · 1.83	1.83	–	40%2/5	40%4/10	–
Juan Cruz Policella Vélez Sarsfield	Over 2.5 Shots · 1.40	1.40	–	40%2/5	33%3/9	–
Emanuel Mammana Vélez Sarsfield	Over 0.5 Shots · 1.66	1.66	–	0%0/5	30%3/10	–
Lisandro Magallán Vélez Sarsfield	Over 0.5 Shots · 1.72	1.72	–	60%3/5	30%3/10	–
Leonardo Morales Belgrano	Over 0.5 Shots · 1.80	1.80	–	40%2/5	30%3/10	–
Diego Valdés Vélez Sarsfield	Over 0.5 Goals · 3.50	3.50	–	0%0/5	30%3/10	–
Ronaldo Martínez Vélez Sarsfield	Over 3.5 Shots · 1.30	1.30	–	40%2/5	30%3/10	–
Adrián Spörle Belgrano	Over 0.5 Shots · 1.53	1.53	–	20%1/5	30%3/10	–
Lucas Passerini Belgrano	Over 0.5 Goals · 3.10	3.10	–	20%1/5	30%3/10	–
Alcides Benítez Belgrano	Over 0.5 Shots · 2.00	2.00	–	40%2/5	30%3/10	–

Player prop screener

Key Players

Liga Profesional de Fútbol, this season