Chelsea vs Leeds United Prediction – Match preview
Chelsea-:-
Leeds UnitedStamford BridgeRound 11
Our prediction
Chelsea to win (59%)
Chelsea 59% · Draw 24% · Leeds United 17% · Over 2.5 goals: 46% · Both teams to score: 45%
From our goals model. A chance, not a certainty.
Match Preview
Updated 10 Nov 2026FootyPulse model
59%
17%
ChelseaDraw 24%Leeds United
Bookmaker implied
51%
24%
ChelseaDraw 25%Leeds United
1.7 – 0.8
Expected score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Both teams to score
Data provider's forecast
Full Time Result
58%
20%
ChelseaDraw 22%Leeds United
First Half Result
45%
18%
ChelseaDraw 37%Leeds United
Team to Score First
65%
29%
ChelseaNo goal 6%Leeds United
Probability
Both Teams to Score
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
79%
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
Over 3.5 Goals
36%
Chelsea Over 3.5 Goals
14%
Chelsea Over 1.5 Goals
57%
Leeds United Over 0.5 Goals
55%
Chelsea Over 0.5 Goals
84%
Form Guide
Updated 10 Nov 2026ChelseaLeeds United
- 5
- League position
- 9
- LWLWW
- Last 5
- WLDDL
- 1.80
- Points per game (L5)
- 1.00
- 9
- Goals scored (L5)
- 3
- 4
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 5
- 3.50
- xG for (L5)
- 3.73
- 4.27
- xG against (L5)
- 2.41
- 2
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 2
Head to Head
7
Chelsea wins
2
Draws
2
Leeds United wins
Last 11 meetings
3.5
Goals per game
55%
Both teams scored
73%
Over 2.5 goals
Last meeting
Chelsea in the last 5 meetings
WWDLW
Key Players
Premier League, this seasonChelsea
Top scorer
Morgan Rogers
5 goals
Most assists
Cole Palmer
3 assists
Best rated
João Pedro
7.60
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan RogersAttacker | 10 (10) | 883 | 5 | 1 | 0.64 | 7.22 | ×3 |
| Cole PalmerAttacker | 10 (10) | 880 | 3 | 3 | 1.10 | 7.36 | ×3 |
| Levi ColwillDefender | 9 (9) | 747 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.68 | ×2 |
| Pedro NetoMidfielder | 10 (9) | 734 | 3 | 1 | 0.46 | 7.06 | ×3 |
| Maxence LacroixDefender | 8 (7) | 634 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.78 | |
| Josh AcheampongDefender | 8 (6) | 581 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | 6.66 | |
| Emiliano MartínezGoalkeeper | 6 (6) | 525 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.23 | – |
| João PedroAttacker | 6 (6) | 522 | 5 | 3 | – | 7.60 | |
| Wesley FofanaDefender | 6 (6) | 495 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | 7.09 | ×2 |
| Roméo LaviaMidfielder | 8 (6) | 458 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 6.95 | |
| Jordan HendersonMidfielder | 5 (5) | 447 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 7.24 | – |
| Moisés CaicedoMidfielder | 6 (5) | 431 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.89 | |
| Jorrel HatoMidfielder | 6 (6) | 416 | 0 | 3 | – | 6.77 | – |
| Pep ChavarríaDefender | 8 (3) | 392 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.64 | – |
| Malo GustoDefender | 7 (3) | 317 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 6.65 | – |
Leeds United
Top scorer
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
3 goals
Most assists
Tarik Muharemović
2 assists
Best rated
Tarik Muharemović
7.19
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James TraffordGoalkeeper | 10 (10) | 900 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.16 | – |
| Tarik MuharemovićDefender | 10 (10) | 900 | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 7.19 | |
| Ethan AmpaduMidfielder | 10 (10) | 900 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | 6.91 | ×4 |
| James JustinDefender | 10 (10) | 883 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 7.07 | |
| Dominic Calvert-LewinAttacker | 10 (10) | 866 | 3 | 1 | 1.01 | 6.86 | ×3 |
| Jayden BogleMidfielder | 10 (10) | 815 | 2 | 0 | 0.27 | 6.86 | ×3 |
| Nico ElvediDefender | 8 (7) | 682 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | 6.86 | |
| Anton StachMidfielder | 9 (7) | 677 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 7.07 | – |
| Ao TanakaMidfielder | 9 (8) | 639 | 0 | 1 | 0.46 | 6.88 | ×2 |
| Gabriel GudmundssonMidfielder | 8 (8) | 632 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 6.93 | |
| Noah OkaforAttacker | 9 (6) | 486 | 2 | 0 | 0.29 | 6.78 | |
| Harry WilsonAttacker | 8 (3) | 327 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 6.71 | |
| Brenden AaronsonMidfielder | 8 (3) | 293 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.48 | – |
| Jaka BijolDefender | 5 (3) | 259 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 6.89 | – |
| Lukas NmechaAttacker | 9 (1) | 204 | 0 | 1 | 0.42 | 6.64 | – |
Odds Comparison
Asian Handicap
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.87 | 1.97 | — | — |
| MansionBet | — | — | 1.87 | 2.01 |
| MelBet | — | — | 3.18 | 1.33 |
| Pinnacle | — | — | 1.90 | 1.98 |
| Sbo | — | — | 1.90 | 2.00 |
More on Chelsea vs Leeds United
- Chelsea stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Leeds United stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Premier League (England) table & fixturesStandings, results and league leaders
- Mathematical football predictionsThis week's model probabilities for every match
- Over/under goals screenerGoal-line hit rates for every upcoming match
- Corner stats screenerCorner lines and hit rates by fixture