Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Prediction – Match preview
Our prediction
Vasco da Gama to win (55%)
Chapecoense 24% · Draw 20% · Vasco da Gama 55% · Over 2.5 goals: 71% · Both teams to score: 68%
From our goals model. A chance, not a certainty.
Match preview
Chapecoense host Vasco da Gama in the Brazil Serie A. Chapecoense have 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 11; Vasco da Gama have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9.
Our model's pick is Vasco da Gama to win at 55% (Chapecoense 24%, draw 20%, Vasco da Gama 55%). It expects about 3.7 goals (Chapecoense 1.4, Vasco da Gama 2.2). It puts over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 68%.
They have met 1 time before: Chapecoense have won 0, Vasco da Gama 0, and 1 ended level, with 2.0 goals a game on average. Players out injured or suspended: Chapecoense 5 and Vasco da Gama 8.
Best odds
Compare 18 bookmakers- Chapecoense7.50
Campobet - Draw5.10
Pinnacle - Vasco da Gama1.46
1xbet - Over 2.51.66
bet365 - Under 2.52.51
Pinnacle
Match Preview
Updated 15 Nov 2026Data provider's forecast
Match Result
Draw no bet
Double chance
Goals
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 0.5 | 94% | 6% | – | 95%19/20 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 | 80% | 20% | 1.18 / 5.32 | 75%15/20 | -5% / +6% |
| Over/under 2.5main | 58% | 42% | 1.57 / 2.51 | 70%14/20 | -8% / +5% |
| Over/under 3.5 | 36% | 64% | 2.47 / 1.58 | 35%7/20 | -11% / +1% |
| Over/under 4.5 | 19% | 81% | 4.45 / 1.23 | 15%3/20 | -15% / 0% |
Chapecoense goals
Vasco da Gama goals
Corners
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 7.5 | 78% | 22% | – | 75%15/20 | – |
| Over/under 8.5 | 67% | 33% | – | 70%14/20 | – |
| Over/under 9.5main | 55% | 45% | 1.70 / 2.11 | 55%11/20 | -7% / -4% |
| Over/under 10.5 | 43% | 57% | 2.10 / 1.70 | 40%8/20 | -9% / -3% |
| Over/under 11.5 | 30% | 70% | – | 25%5/20 | – |
| Over/under 12.5 | 21% | 79% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
| Over/under 13.5 | 14% | 87% | – | 5%1/20 | – |
Chapecoense corners
Vasco da Gama corners
Cards
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 | 86% | 14% | – | 85%17/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 63% | 37% | 1.66 / 2.10 | 65%13/20 | +5% / -23% |
| Over/under 4.5main | 53% | 48% | – | 40%8/20 | – |
| Over/under 5.5 | 35% | 65% | – | 20%4/20 | – |
| Over/under 6.5 | 21% | 79% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
Chapecoense cards
Vasco da Gama cards
Player Props
Best line per player and stat| Player | Line | Odds | Model | L5 | L10 | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marino Hinestroza Vasco da Gama | Over 0.5 Tackles · 1.44 | 1.44 | 64% | 40%2/5 | 60%6/10 | -8% |
Giovanni Augusto Chapecoense | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.36 | 1.36 | 63% | 60%3/5 | 70%7/10 | -14% |
Andrés Gómez Vasco da Gama | Over 0.5 Fouls committed · 1.42 | 1.42 | 63% | 60%3/5 | 50%5/10 | -11% |
Tulio Eduardo Chapecoense | Over 0.5 Fouls won · 1.30 | 1.30 | 62% | 80%4/5 | 50%5/10 | -20% |
Facundo Colidio Vasco da Gama | Over 0.5 Fouls committed · 1.40 | 1.40 | 61% | 80%4/5 | 70%7/10 | -14% |
Yago Felipe Chapecoense | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.57 | 1.57 | 59% | 60%3/5 | 60%6/10 | -8% |
Robert Renan Vasco da Gama | Over 0.5 Fouls committed · 1.42 | 1.42 | 58% | 60%3/5 | 50%5/10 | -17% |
Tulio Eduardo Chapecoense | Over 1.5 Shots · 1.35 | 1.35 | 57% | 40%2/5 | 50%5/10 | -23% |
Thiago Mendes Vasco da Gama | Over 0.5 Fouls committed · 1.32 | 1.32 | 57% | 60%3/5 | 50%5/10 | -25% |
Santiago Sosa Vasco da Gama | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.34 | 1.34 | 56% | 40%2/5 | 40%4/10 | -25% |
Alan Lescano Vasco da Gama | Over 0.5 Fouls committed · 1.47 | 1.47 | 54% | 60%3/5 | 40%4/10 | -20% |
Max Alves Chapecoense | Over 0.5 Fouls committed · 1.57 | 1.57 | 54% | 20%1/5 | 30%3/10 | -15% |
Yannick Bolasie Chapecoense | Over 1.5 Shots · 1.80 | 1.80 | 53% | 60%3/5 | 30%3/10 | -4% |
Facundo Colidio Vasco da Gama | Over 0.5 Tackles · 1.44 | 1.44 | 53% | 60%3/5 | 50%5/10 | -24% |
Camilo Chapecoense | Over 0.5 Shots · 1.90 | 1.90 | 52% | 40%2/5 | 40%4/10 | -1% |
Giovanni Augusto Chapecoense | Over 0.5 Fouls committed · 1.40 | 1.40 | 51% | 40%2/5 | 60%6/10 | -28% |
Yago Felipe Chapecoense | Over 1.5 Tackles · 2.10 | 2.10 | 51% | 40%2/5 | 40%4/10 | +7% |
Yago Felipe Chapecoense | Over 1.5 Fouls committed · 1.61 | 1.61 | 50% | 80%4/5 | 80%8/10 | -20% |
Camilo Chapecoense | Over 0.5 Fouls won · 1.55 | 1.55 | 50% | 60%3/5 | 30%3/10 | -23% |
Kauan Faria Chapecoense | Over 0.5 Fouls committed · 1.42 | 1.42 | 49% | 60%3/5 | 60%6/10 | -30% |
Bruno Pacheco Chapecoense | Over 1.5 Tackles · 1.53 | 1.53 | 49% | 40%2/5 | 50%5/10 | -25% |
Andrés Gómez Vasco da Gama | Over 0.5 Shots on target · 1.37 | 1.37 | 49% | 40%2/5 | 40%4/10 | -33% |
Marino Hinestroza Vasco da Gama | Over 0.5 Fouls committed · 1.50 | 1.50 | 49% | 20%1/5 | 30%3/10 | -27% |
Heitor Chapecoense | Over 0.5 Fouls won · 1.30 | 1.30 | 49% | 40%2/5 | 40%2/5 | -37% |
Player Probabilities
Updated 15 Nov 2026Based on each starter's last 20–40 games across all competitions, adjusted for the opponent, home or away, and the referee for fouls and cards. Starters only; hover a figure for the expected count.
Chapecoense
Confirmed line-up| Player | Shot | On target | Foul | Fouled | 2+ tackles | Booked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Anderson GK | – | – | 0% | 27% | – | 7% |
Gabriel Werner GKlimited data | – | – | 1% | 9% | – | 5% |
Rafael Thyere DEF | 31% | 9% | 44% | 28% | 24% | 12% |
Victor Caetano DEF | 30% | 6% | 46% | 22% | 31% | 15% |
Bruno Pacheco DEF | 36% | 6% | 56% | 71% | 49% | 18% |
Heitor DEF | 53% | 23% | 57% | 49% | 52% | 12% |
Kauan Faria DEF | 33% | 14% | 49% | 26% | 36% | 17% |
Giovanni Augusto MID | 63% | 28% | 51% | 76% | 29% | 13% |
Yago Felipe MID | 59% | 23% | 81% | 73% | 51% | 19% |
Dylan Borrero MID | 71% | 35% | 44% | 43% | 29% | 10% |
Camilo MID | 52% | 11% | 78% | 50% | 63% | 25% |
Max Alves MID | 62% | 14% | 54% | 41% | 41% | 14% |
Yannick Bolasie FWD | 82% 2+ 53% | 52% | 69% | 57% | 12% | 12% |
Marcinho FWD | 74% 2+ 41% | 37% | 63% | 63% | 20% | 14% |
Tulio Eduardo FWD | 84% 2+ 57% | 42% | 71% | 62% | 8% | 11% |
Vasco da Gama
Confirmed line-up| Player | Shot | On target | Foul | Fouled | 2+ tackles | Booked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Léo Jardim GK | – | – | 2% | 12% | – | 5% |
José Luis Rodríguez DEF | 87% | 45% | 41% | 31% | 27% | 12% |
Lucas Piton DEF | 49% | 22% | 64% | 28% | 29% | 11% |
Alan Saldivia DEF | 43% | 10% | 55% | 40% | 47% | 21% |
Robert Renan DEF | 36% | 10% | 58% | 23% | 38% | 13% |
Thiago Mendes MID | 68% | 34% | 57% | 78% | 22% | 22% |
Jair MID | 54% | 13% | 71% | 71% | 42% | 21% |
Facundo Colidio MID | 89% | 61% | 61% | 84% | 19% | 13% |
Santiago Sosa MID | 56% | 19% | 69% | 29% | 46% | 17% |
Marino Hinestroza MID | 74% | 28% | 49% | 72% | 29% | 13% |
Andrés Gómez MID | 86% | 49% | 63% | 72% | 35% | 18% |
Alan Lescano MID | 76% | 45% | 54% | 75% | 39% | 16% |
Bruno Duarte FWD | 81% 2+ 52% | 45% | 47% | 40% | 12% | 8% |
Form Guide
Updated 15 Nov 2026- —
- League position
- —
- LLWLL
- Last 5
- WWLLW
- 0.60
- Points per game (L5)
- 1.80
- 4
- Goals scored (L5)
- 9
- 11
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 9
- —
- xG for (L5)
- —
- —
- xG against (L5)
- —
- 0
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 0
Head to Head
Last 1 meetings
Injuries & Suspensions
Chapecoense
- CarvalheiraUnknown Injury
- DomaYellow Card Suspension
- Maurício GarcezLeg Injury
- Robert SantosCruciate Ligament Injury
- Vinicius BalieiroInflammation Of Ligaments In The Knee
Vasco da Gama
- Carlos CuestaHip Injury
- Cauan BarrosUnknown Injury
- Marino HinestrozaFoot Injury
- Mateus CarvalhoCruciate Ligament Injury
- Nuno MoreiraThigh Problems
- Santiago SosaThigh Muscle Strain
- Tchê TchêTendonitis
- Thiago MendesBack Injury
Confirmed Line-ups
OfficialChapecoense
- 14Gabriel WernerGoalkeeper
- 98AndersonGoalkeeper
- 5HeitorDefender
- 25Victor CaetanoDefender
- 15Rafael ThyereDefender
- 21Kauan FariaDefender
- 91Bruno PachecoDefender
- 27CamiloMidfielder
- 88Yago FelipeMidfielder
- 7MarcinhoAttacker
- 22Max AlvesMidfielder
- 10Giovanni AugustoMidfielder
- 11Yannick BolasieAttacker
- 77Dylan BorreroMidfielder
- 9Tulio EduardoAttacker
- 6ManchaDefender
- 8Robert SantosAttacker
- 12FernandoDefender
- 19David AntunesMidfielder
- 20Bruno Nunes de BarrosAttacker
- 30Matheus AurélioGoalkeeper
- 35Vinicius EduardoDefender
- 39RodrigoAttacker
- 51GleidsonAttacker
- 55RosivanMidfielder
- 70RubensMidfielder
- 80Miguel CarvalhoMidfielder
Vasco da Gama
- 1Léo JardimGoalkeeper
- 6Lucas PitonDefender
- 30Robert RenanDefender
- 4Alan SaldiviaDefender
- 2José Luis RodríguezDefender
- 8JairMidfielder
- 23Thiago MendesMidfielder
- 5Santiago SosaMidfielder
- 9Facundo ColidioMidfielder
- 11Andrés GómezMidfielder
- 22Alan LescanoMidfielder
- 18Marino HinestrozaMidfielder
- 19Bruno DuarteAttacker
- 7DavidAttacker
- 10Johan RojasAttacker
- 13Daniel FuzatoGoalkeeper
- 20BrennerAttacker
- 28AdsonAttacker
- 43Lucas FreitasDefender
- 45Loide AugustoAttacker
- 55Gabriel PereiraDefender
- 66CuiabanoDefender
- 83Ramon RiqueMidfielder
- 85Mateus CarvalhoMidfielder
- 96Paulo HenriqueDefender
Key Players
Serie A, this seasonChapecoense
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DomaDefender | 30 (0) | 2587 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.70 | ×7 |
| CamiloMidfielder | 27 (0) | 2313 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.90 | ×10 |
| MarcinhoAttacker | 31 (0) | 1922 | 5 | 2 | – | 6.70 | ×3 |
| Bruno PachecoDefender | 24 (0) | 1812 | 1 | 3 | – | 6.70 | ×4 |
| AndersonGoalkeeper | 19 (0) | 1710 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.00 | – |
| Yannick BolasieAttacker | 26 (0) | 1594 | 2 | 3 | – | 6.70 | ×4 |
| Giovanni AugustoMidfielder | 25 (0) | 1537 | 2 | 7 | – | 7.20 | ×2 |
| EvertonDefender | 21 (0) | 1325 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.50 | ×5 |
| Bruno LeonardoDefender | 15 (0) | 1311 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.60 | ×3 |
| Maurício GarcezAttacker | 17 (0) | 1081 | 3 | 0 | – | 6.80 | – |
| Kauan FariaDefender | 12 (0) | 1074 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.80 | ×3 |
| CarvalheiraMidfielder | 14 (0) | 896 | 2 | 0 | – | 6.70 | ×2 |
| Tulio EduardoAttacker | 13 (0) | 876 | 3 | 1 | – | 6.90 | |
| Yago FelipeMidfielder | 11 (0) | 834 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.80 | ×3 |
| ÊnioAttacker | 14 (0) | 783 | 1 | 0 | – | 7.00 | ×2 |
Vasco da Gama
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo JardimGoalkeeper | 33 (0) | 2970 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.70 | |
| Robert RenanDefender | 31 (0) | 2790 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.90 | ×4 |
| Thiago MendesMidfielder | 30 (0) | 2444 | 5 | 1 | – | 7.10 | ×8 |
| Andrés GómezAttacker | 28 (0) | 2234 | 5 | 3 | – | 6.90 | ×9 |
| CuiabanoDefender | 23 (0) | 1678 | 2 | 3 | – | 7.10 | ×4 |
| José Luis RodríguezDefender | 24 (0) | 1539 | 3 | 5 | – | 7.10 | ×3 |
| Paulo HenriqueDefender | 22 (0) | 1493 | 0 | 2 | – | 6.70 | ×5 |
| Tchê TchêMidfielder | 23 (0) | 1472 | 2 | 0 | – | 6.70 | ×3 |
| Alan SaldiviaDefender | 16 (0) | 1394 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.90 | ×4 |
| Carlos CuestaDefender | 16 (0) | 1373 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.70 | |
| Cauan BarrosMidfielder | 19 (0) | 1304 | 3 | 0 | – | 7.00 | ×4 |
| Lucas PitonDefender | 21 (0) | 1206 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.70 | – |
| DavidAttacker | 26 (0) | 1139 | 4 | 3 | – | 6.80 | – |
| Nuno MoreiraMidfielder | 23 (0) | 1012 | 1 | 1 | – | 6.80 | ×3 |
| Johan RojasAttacker | 18 (0) | 856 | 0 | 1 | – | 7.00 | ×2 |
Referee
Referee
- Cards per game
- 4.91
- Yellow cards per game
- 4.82
- Red cards per game
- 0.18
- Fouls per game
- 26.1
- Penalties per game
- 0.18
- Home wins
- 36%
Averages across 11 completed matches officiated by Rodrigo Pereira in our database. Full referee profile and card-line form
Odds Comparison
Pre-match odds from 18 bookmakers across 6 markets. The best price for each outcome is highlighted.
2nd Half Result
6 bookmakersBest Home6.66at
CampobetBest Draw3.11at
1xbetBest Away1.75at
William Hill
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.70 | 3.11 | 1.73 | |
| 6.00 | 2.75 | 1.66 | |
| 6.00 | 2.85 | 1.72 | |
| 6.66 | 2.85 | 1.66 | |
| 5.85 | 2.98 | 1.67 | |
| 5.50 | 2.80 | 1.75 |
Asian Handicap
11 bookmakersBest Home +1.252.02at
bet365Best Away -1.252.00atMansionBet
| Bookmaker | Home +1.25 | Away -1.25 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.94 | 1.92 | |
| 2.02 | 1.82 | |
| 1.98 | 1.87 | |
| 1.86 | 1.81 | |
| 1.90 | 1.75 | |
| 1.96 | 1.91 | |
| Macauslot | 1.88 | 1.90 |
| MansionBet | 1.89 | 2.00 |
| 1.77 | 1.88 | |
| 1.95 | 1.93 | |
| 1.96 | — |
Corners Over Under
3 bookmakersBest Over 102.10at
bet365Best Under 102.00at
bet365Best Exactly 108.00at
bet365
| Bookmaker | Over 10 | Under 10 | Exactly 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.85 | 1.95 | — | |
| 2.10 | 2.00 | 8.00 | |
| 1.89 | 1.89 | — |
Full Time Result
18 bookmakersBest Home7.50at
CampobetBest Draw5.10at
PinnacleBest Away1.46at
1xbet
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.77 | 4.82 | 1.46 | |
| 7.00 | 4.75 | 1.42 | |
| 7.30 | 4.70 | 1.40 | |
| 7.00 | 4.60 | 1.33 | |
| 7.00 | 4.75 | 1.40 | |
| 6.25 | 4.80 | 1.44 | |
| 7.50 | 4.75 | 1.36 | |
| 6.50 | 4.80 | 1.44 | |
| 6.80 | 5.00 | 1.44 | |
| 6.50 | 4.80 | 1.43 | |
| 6.50 | 4.80 | 1.44 | |
| Macauslot | 6.00 | 4.75 | 1.33 |
| MansionBet | 6.50 | 4.45 | 1.43 |
| 6.90 | 4.75 | 1.39 | |
| 7.00 | 4.86 | 1.41 | |
| 7.03 | 5.10 | 1.44 | |
| 6.50 | 4.65 | 1.40 | |
| 6.50 | 4.60 | 1.40 |
Goals Over/Under
8 bookmakersBest Over 2.51.66at
bet365Best Under 2.52.51at
Pinnacle
| Bookmaker | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.53 | 2.50 | |
| 1.66 | 2.15 | |
| 1.65 | 2.27 | |
| 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 1.66 | 2.12 | |
| 1.57 | 2.31 | |
| 1.57 | 2.51 |
HT/FT Double
1 bookmaker| Bookmaker | Home/Home | Home/Draw | Home/Away | Draw/Home | Draw/Draw | Draw/Away | Away/Home | Away/Draw | Away/Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.00 | 19.00 | 21.00 | 15.00 | 7.00 | 4.00 | 41.00 | 17.00 | 2.05 |
More on Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama
- Chapecoense stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Vasco da Gama stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Serie A (Brazil) table & fixturesStandings, results and league leaders
- Mathematical football predictionsThis week's model probabilities for every match
- Over/under goals screenerGoal-line hit rates for every upcoming match
- Corner stats screenerCorner lines and hit rates by fixture