Grêmio vs Bahia Prediction – Match preview
Grêmio-:-
BahiaArena do GrêmioRound 35
Our prediction
Grêmio to win (39%)
Grêmio 39% · Draw 24% · Bahia 37% · Over 2.5 goals: 60% · Both teams to score: 62%
From our goals model. A chance, not a certainty.
Match Preview
Updated 10 Nov 2026FootyPulse model
39%
37%
GrêmioDraw 24%Bahia
Bookmaker implied
40%
33%
GrêmioDraw 27%Bahia
1.6 – 1.5
Expected score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Both teams to score
Data provider's forecast
Full Time Result
43%
32%
GrêmioDraw 25%Bahia
First Half Result
34%
26%
GrêmioDraw 40%Bahia
Team to Score First
49%
46%
GrêmioNo goal 5%Bahia
Probability
Both Teams to Score
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
80%
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
Over 3.5 Goals
34%
Grêmio Over 3.5 Goals
8%
Grêmio Over 1.5 Goals
46%
Bahia Over 0.5 Goals
69%
Grêmio Over 0.5 Goals
77%
Form Guide
Updated 10 Nov 2026GrêmioBahia
- 18
- League position
- 6
- LWWLD
- Last 5
- LWDLW
- 1.40
- Points per game (L5)
- 1.40
- 7
- Goals scored (L5)
- 7
- 8
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 9
- 3.54
- xG for (L5)
- 3.74
- 4.81
- xG against (L5)
- 6.11
- 2
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 1
Head to Head
4
Grêmio wins
3
Draws
4
Bahia wins
Last 11 meetings
2.2
Goals per game
45%
Both teams scored
27%
Over 2.5 goals
Last meeting
Grêmio in the last 5 meetings
DLWLL
Injuries & Suspensions
Grêmio
No reported absences
Bahia
- Léo VieiraTorn Knee Ligaments
Key Players
Serie A, this seasonGrêmio
Top scorer
Carlos Vinícius
11 goals
Most assists
Cristian Pavón
4 assists
Best rated
Wallace
7.28
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WevertonGoalkeeper | 31 (31) | 2790 | 0 | 1 | – | 7.10 | ×3 |
| Carlos ViníciusAttacker | 32 (30) | 2505 | 11 | 1 | 0.47 | 6.85 | ×6 |
| Cristian PavónDefender | 29 (26) | 2187 | 3 | 4 | 0.20 | 7.16 | ×7 |
| Francis AmuzuAttacker | 29 (23) | 1947 | 2 | 4 | 0.80 | 6.89 | |
| Gustavo MartinsDefender | 24 (21) | 1932 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 7.00 | ×6 |
| Erick NoriegaMidfielder | 25 (22) | 1887 | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | 6.90 | ×6 |
| Mathías VillasantiMidfielder | 15 (15) | 1282 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.78 | ×4 |
| José EnamoradoAttacker | 29 (12) | 1231 | 0 | 3 | 0.51 | 6.60 | ×5 |
| TetêAttacker | 27 (14) | 1181 | 2 | 1 | – | 6.77 | |
| MarlonDefender | 14 (14) | 1181 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 7.15 | ×3 |
| VieryDefender | 13 (13) | 1169 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.80 | ×4 |
| Juan Ignacio NardoniMidfielder | 18 (14) | 1090 | 1 | 1 | – | 6.60 | ×2 |
| WallaceDefender | 12 (12) | 1080 | 2 | 1 | 0.26 | 7.28 | ×3 |
| Arthur MeloMidfielder | 10 (8) | 807 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.93 | |
| Martin BraithwaiteAttacker | 25 (6) | 803 | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 6.54 | – |
Bahia
Top scorer
Luciano Juba
11 goals
Most assists
Rodrigo Nestor
5 assists
Best rated
Ronaldo
7.32
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás AcevedoMidfielder | 31 (31) | 2552 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 6.93 | ×11 |
| Luciano JubaDefender | 30 (29) | 2509 | 11 | 2 | 0.14 | 7.13 | ×4 |
| David DuarteDefender | 27 (27) | 2427 | 3 | 1 | 0.06 | 7.03 | ×5 |
| Erick PulgaAttacker | 33 (31) | 2389 | 5 | 2 | 1.17 | 6.93 | ×5 |
| RonaldoGoalkeeper | 25 (25) | 2205 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.32 | ×2 |
| Santiago Ramos MingoDefender | 24 (24) | 2116 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.82 | ×3 |
| Jean LucasMidfielder | 29 (24) | 1997 | 4 | 4 | 0.02 | 6.77 | ×6 |
| Cristian OliveraAttacker | 26 (22) | 1775 | 2 | 2 | 0.66 | 6.89 | ×3 |
| Rodrigo NestorMidfielder | 27 (20) | 1706 | 2 | 5 | 0.17 | 7.06 | ×4 |
| ErickMidfielder | 26 (16) | 1549 | 4 | 1 | 0.13 | 6.87 | ×6 |
| Alejo VelizAttacker | 15 (15) | 1303 | 4 | 1 | 0.90 | 6.97 | – |
| Román GómezDefender | 17 (13) | 1213 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.83 | ×3 |
| Willian JoséAttacker | 24 (16) | 1210 | 3 | 1 | – | 6.70 | |
| Everton RibeiroMidfielder | 23 (12) | 1179 | 0 | 4 | 0.04 | 6.90 | |
| AdemirAttacker | 30 (10) | 1140 | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 6.77 | ×3 |
Odds Comparison
Asian Handicap
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 2.02 | 1.82 | — | — |
| Dafabet | — | — | 1.68 | 2.17 |
| MansionBet | — | — | 1.69 | 2.20 |
| Marathonbet | — | — | 1.71 | 2.04 |
| MelBet | — | — | 1.74 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | — | — | 2.02 | 1.84 |
| Sbo | — | — | 2.03 | 1.85 |
Goals Over/Under
| Bookmaker | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.70 | 2.10 |
| Betano.dk | 2.75 | 1.18 |
More on Grêmio vs Bahia
- Grêmio stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Bahia stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Serie A (Brazil) table & fixturesStandings, results and league leaders
- Mathematical football predictionsThis week's model probabilities for every match
- Over/under goals screenerGoal-line hit rates for every upcoming match
- Corner stats screenerCorner lines and hit rates by fixture