Mozambique vs Ethiopia Prediction – Match preview

Friday, 13 November 2026 · 14:00

Mozambique

-:-

Ethiopia

Estádio Nacional do ZimpetoRound 3

Our prediction

Ethiopia to win (45%)

Mozambique 26% · Draw 29% · Ethiopia 45% · Over 2.5 goals: 37% · Both teams to score: 43%

From our goals model. A chance, not a certainty.

Match Preview

Updated 05 Nov 2026

FootyPulse model

26%

45%

MozambiqueDraw 29%Ethiopia

0.9 – 1.3

Expected score

37%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

Both teams to score

Data provider's forecast

Full Time Result

57%

19%

MozambiqueDraw 24%Ethiopia

First Half Result

39%

15%

MozambiqueDraw 46%Ethiopia

Team to Score First

65%

27%

MozambiqueNo goal 8%Ethiopia

Probability

Both Teams to Score

47%

Over 1.5 Goals

71%

Over 2.5 Goals

47%

Over 3.5 Goals

25%

Mozambique Over 3.5 Goals

10%

Mozambique Over 1.5 Goals

49%

Ethiopia Over 0.5 Goals

52%

Mozambique Over 0.5 Goals

80%

Match Result

Mozambique

40%–

model 2.51–

Last 1043%6/14

Draw

28%–

model 3.56–

Last 107%1/14

Ethiopia

32%–

model 3.12–

Last 1050%7/14

Draw no bet

Mozambique

55%–

model 1.80–

Last 1046%6/13

Ethiopia

45%–

model 2.25–

Last 1054%7/13

Double chance

Mozambique or draw

68%–

model 1.47–

Last 1050%7/14

Mozambique or Ethiopia

72%–

model 1.39–

Last 1093%13/14

Draw or Ethiopia

60%–

model 1.66–

Last 1057%8/14

Expected goals 1.4–1.3 · No bookmaker price yet: model chances only.Match result screener

Goals

Expected 2.7 match goalsGoal screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	EV O / U
Over/under 0.5	93%	7%	–	100%14/14	–
Over/under 1.5	75%	25%	–	57%8/14	–
Over/under 2.5main	51%	49%	–	50%7/14	–
Over/under 3.5	29%	71%	–	29%4/14	–
Over/under 4.5	14%	86%	–	14%2/14	–

Both teams to score

55%

Last 1043%6/14

Mozambique clean sheet

25%

model chance

Ethiopia clean sheet

27%

model chance

Mozambique goals

O0.5 73%O1.5 38%O2.5 15%

Ethiopia goals

O0.5 75%O1.5 40%O2.5 16%

Corners

Expected 8.7 match cornersCorner screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	EV O / U
Over/under 7.5	64%	36%	–	50%6/12	–
Over/under 8.5main	51%	49%	–	42%5/12	–
Over/under 9.5	38%	62%	–	33%4/12	–
Over/under 10.5	26%	74%	–	25%3/12	–
Over/under 11.5	17%	83%	–	8%1/12	–
Over/under 12.5	11%	89%	–	0%0/12	–
Over/under 13.5	6%	94%	–	0%0/12	–

Mozambique corners

O2.5 74%O3.5 53%O4.5 34%O5.5 19%O6.5 9%O7.5 4%

Ethiopia corners

O2.5 87%O3.5 72%O4.5 54%O5.5 37%O6.5 22%O7.5 12%

Cards

Expected 3.8 match cardsCard screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	EV O / U
Over/under 2.5	74%	26%	–	77%10/13	–
Over/under 3.5main	54%	47%	–	54%7/13	–
Over/under 4.5	34%	66%	–	23%3/13	–
Over/under 5.5	19%	81%	–	0%0/13	–
Over/under 6.5	9%	91%	–	0%0/13	–

Mozambique cards

O0.5 83%O1.5 53%O2.5 26%O3.5 10%

Ethiopia cards

O0.5 87%O1.5 61%O2.5 34%O3.5 16%

Key Players

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications, this season

Mozambique

Top scorer

Chamito Alfandega

2 goals

Most assists

Ricardo Guimarães

1 assists

Best rated

Ricardo Guimarães

7.53

Mozambique squad statistics in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications this season
Player	Apps	Min	G	A	xG	Rating	Cards
Edmilson DoveDefender	2 (2)	180	0	0	–	6.79	–
Bruno LangaDefender	2 (2)	180	0	0	–	6.85
Ernan SiluaneGoalkeeper	2 (2)	180	0	0	–	6.83	–
Ricardo GuimarãesMidfielder	2 (2)	180	1	1	–	7.53	×2
Bruno WilsonDefender	2 (2)	180	0	0	–	6.75	–
Geny CatamoAttacker	2 (2)	180	1	0	–	7.11	–
Alfonso AmadeMidfielder	2 (2)	165	1	1	–	7.12
Witiness QuemboAttacker	2 (2)	132	1	1	–	6.56
BheuDefender	2 (2)	118	0	0	–	6.72	–
Faisal BangalAttacker	2 (2)	112	0	0	–	6.41	–
Gildo VilanculosMidfielder	2 (2)	89	0	0	–	6.19	–
Chamito AlfandegaAttacker	2 (0)	68	2	0	–	7.97	–
Edson Joelder Lobo MucuanaAttacker	1 (0)	24	0	0	–	6.14	–
Fernando ChambocoDefender	1 (0)	24	0	0	–	–	–
Oscar Cherene	1 (0)	18	0	0	–	–	–

Ethiopia

Top scorer

—

Most assists

—

Best rated

Chernet Gugsa

6.47

Ethiopia squad statistics in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications this season
Player	Apps	Min	xG	Rating	Cards
Chernet GugsaMidfielder	2 (2)	180	–	6.47	–
Yared BayeDefender	2 (2)	180	–	6.37
Bekele BerhaneDefender	2 (2)	180	–	6.26	–
Abubeker NuraGoalkeeper	2 (2)	180	–	6.30	–
Habtamu TekesteMidfielder	2 (2)	180	–	6.43	–
Canaan MarknehAttacker	2 (2)	172	–	6.27	–
Gatoch PanomMidfielder	2 (2)	172	–	6.47
Abel Yalew TilahunAttacker	2 (2)	122	–	6.45	–
Mesfin TafesseMidfielder	1 (1)	61	–	6.45
Fitsum TilahunAttacker	2 (0)	60	–	6.44	–
Binyam FikreAttacker	1 (1)	59	–	7.05	–
Binyam BelayMidfielder	1 (0)	44	–	6.36	–
Dawa HotessaAttacker	1 (0)	8	–	6.48	–

Bookmaker	Home	Away
1xbet	2.68	1.39
MelBet	2.68	1.39

Draw no bet

Double chance

Mozambique goals

Ethiopia goals

Mozambique corners

Ethiopia corners

Mozambique cards

Ethiopia cards

Mozambique

Ethiopia

Asian Handicap

Goals Over/Under

Mozambique vs Ethiopia Prediction – Match preview

Our prediction

Match Preview

Data provider's forecast

Match Result

Draw no bet

Double chance

Goals

Mozambique goals

Ethiopia goals

Corners

Mozambique corners

Ethiopia corners

Cards

Mozambique cards

Ethiopia cards

Form Guide

Key Players

Mozambique

Ethiopia

Odds Comparison

Asian Handicap

Goals Over/Under

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