Leganés vs Burgos Prediction – Match preview
Leganés-:-
BurgosEstadio Municipal de ButarqueRound 14
Our prediction
Burgos to win (37%)
Leganés 33% · Draw 30% · Burgos 37%
Our model and the bookmakers disagree strongly on this match, which usually means the model is missing team news, so this call blends the two.
Match Preview
Updated 07 Nov 2026FootyPulse model
23%
47%
LeganésDraw 30%Burgos
Bookmaker implied
44%
27%
LeganésDraw 29%Burgos
0.8 – 1.2
Expected score
32%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Both teams to score
Data provider's forecast
Full Time Result
39%
33%
LeganésDraw 28%Burgos
First Half Result
28%
25%
LeganésDraw 47%Burgos
Team to Score First
49%
42%
LeganésNo goal 9%Burgos
Probability
Both Teams to Score
51%
Over 1.5 Goals
70%
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
23%
Leganés Over 3.5 Goals
4%
Leganés Over 1.5 Goals
36%
Burgos Over 0.5 Goals
66%
Leganés Over 0.5 Goals
71%
Match Result
Leganés
40%2.14
model 2.49-14%
Last 1015%3/20
Draw
28%3.29
model 3.51-6%
Last 1015%3/20
Burgos
31%3.62
model 3.19disputed
Last 1070%14/20
Draw no bet
Leganés
56%1.49
model 1.78-16%
Last 1018%3/17
Burgos
44%2.52
model 2.29disputed
Last 1082%14/17
Double chance
Leganés or draw
69%1.30
model 1.46-11%
Last 1030%6/20
Leganés or Burgos
72%1.34
model 1.40-4%
Last 1085%17/20
Draw or Burgos
60%1.72
model 1.67+3%
Last 1085%17/20
Expected goals 1.3–1.6 · Odds: Pinnacle; the chance shown leans on its price.Match result screener
Goals
Expected 2.9 match goalsGoal screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 0.5 | 94% | 6% | – | 95%19/20 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 | 75% | 26% | 1.34 / 3.26 | 75%15/20 | 0% / -17% |
| Over/under 2.5main | 50% | 50% | 2.13 / 1.73 | 55%11/20 | +6% / -13% |
| Over/under 3.5 | 29% | 71% | 3.86 / 1.26 | 35%7/20 | +10% / -10% |
| Over/under 4.5 | 16% | 84% | – | 20%4/20 | – |
Both teams to score
56%
Last 1055%11/20
Leganés clean sheet
18%
model chance
Burgos clean sheet
31%
model chance
Leganés goals
O0.5 69%O1.5 32%O2.5 11%
Burgos goals
O0.5 82%O1.5 51%O2.5 25%
Corners
Expected 9.4 match cornersCorner screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 7.5 | 72% | 28% | – | 70%14/20 | – |
| Over/under 8.5 | 60% | 40% | – | 65%13/20 | – |
| Over/under 9.5main | 47% | 53% | – | 55%11/20 | – |
| Over/under 10.5 | 34% | 66% | – | 30%6/20 | – |
| Over/under 11.5 | 24% | 76% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
| Over/under 12.5 | 16% | 84% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
| Over/under 13.5 | 10% | 90% | – | 5%1/20 | – |
Leganés corners
O2.5 82%O3.5 64%O4.5 45%O5.5 28%O6.5 16%O7.5 8%
Burgos corners
O2.5 87%O3.5 73%O4.5 56%O5.5 38%O6.5 24%O7.5 13%
Cards
Expected 5.3 match cardsCard screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 | 90% | 10% | – | 95%19/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 77% | 23% | – | 90%18/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5 | 60% | 40% | – | 85%17/20 | – |
| Over/under 5.5main | 43% | 57% | – | 50%10/20 | – |
| Over/under 6.5 | 28% | 72% | – | 35%7/20 | – |
Leganés cards
O0.5 94%O1.5 77%O2.5 54%O3.5 32%
Burgos cards
O0.5 91%O1.5 70%O2.5 44%O3.5 23%
Form Guide
Updated 07 Nov 2026LeganésBurgos
- 17
- League position
- 8
- LDLLL
- Last 5
- DWWLL
- 0.20
- Points per game (L5)
- 1.40
- 4
- Goals scored (L5)
- 6
- 13
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 6
- 4.17
- xG for (L5)
- 2.11
- 3.44
- xG against (L5)
- 2.05
- 0
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 1
Head to Head
1
Leganés wins
1
Draws
4
Burgos wins
Last 6 meetings
2.2
Goals per game
33%
Both teams scored
50%
Over 2.5 goals
Last meeting
Leganés in the last 5 meetings
LLWLL
Injuries & Suspensions
Leganés
No reported absences
Burgos
- David GonzálezHamstring Injury
- Jon KarrikaburuMuscle Injury
- Santiago LencinaAdductor Injury
Key Players
La Liga 2, this seasonLeganés
Top scorer
Naim García
2 goals
Most assists
Álex Sancris
2 assists
Best rated
Ismaël Gharbi
7.07
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naim GarcíaAttacker | 12 (10) | 865 | 2 | 1 | 0.01 | 6.72 | ×2 |
| Ismaël GharbiMidfielder | 11 (11) | 839 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 7.07 | ×2 |
| Yassine KechtaMidfielder | 12 (10) | 829 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 6.60 | ×5 |
| Zico BuurmeesterMidfielder | 12 (9) | 803 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.72 | |
| Luca ZidaneGoalkeeper | 9 (8) | 784 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.83 | – |
| Lalo AguilarDefender | 9 (9) | 771 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.81 | – |
| Miguel AtienzaMidfielder | 9 (9) | 749 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.75 | – |
| Marvelous Antolín GarzónDefender | 9 (9) | 735 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.87 | ×5 |
| Ignasi MiquelDefender | 8 (8) | 671 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.82 | |
| Patrick SokoAttacker | 12 (8) | 640 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 6.67 | – |
| Álex SancrisAttacker | 9 (7) | 535 | 0 | 2 | 0.56 | 6.89 | ×3 |
| Javi MonteroDefender | 7 (5) | 497 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | 6.75 | ×2 |
| Dani RodríguezMidfielder | 12 (3) | 476 | 0 | 0 | 0.23 | 6.51 | |
| Álvaro MorataAttacker | 8 (5) | 469 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 6.77 | ×3 |
| Rubén PulidoDefender | 9 (3) | 380 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.50 | ×5 |
Burgos
Top scorer
David González
3 goals
Most assists
Javi Llabrés
5 assists
Best rated
Ander Cantero
7.11
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ander CanteroGoalkeeper | 12 (12) | 1021 | 0 | 0 | – | 7.11 | – |
| Grego SierraDefender | 11 (11) | 951 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.66 | ×5 |
| Alberto DadieDefender | 12 (10) | 939 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 6.66 | ×4 |
| Javi LlabrésMidfielder | 12 (12) | 894 | 1 | 5 | 0.07 | 7.05 | – |
| David GonzálezMidfielder | 10 (10) | 842 | 3 | 1 | – | 6.98 | ×2 |
| Curro SánchezMidfielder | 12 (10) | 803 | 3 | 1 | 1.44 | 6.99 | |
| Unai VencedorMidfielder | 9 (8) | 714 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.80 | ×2 |
| Álex ForésAttacker | 12 (7) | 692 | 3 | 1 | 0.05 | 6.77 | – |
| José GrageraMidfielder | 12 (7) | 677 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.71 | ×3 |
| Oier LuengoDefender | 8 (7) | 630 | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 7.06 | ×2 |
| Brais MartínezDefender | 9 (6) | 550 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.60 | |
| Ignasi VilarrasaDefender | 9 (6) | 523 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.55 | – |
| Pablo GaldamesMidfielder | 11 (6) | 512 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.68 | ×3 |
| Jon KarrikaburuAttacker | 9 (6) | 442 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | 6.89 | |
| Sergio GonzálezDefender | 6 (4) | 398 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.87 |
Odds Comparison
Asian Handicap
| Bookmaker | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1xbet | 8.65 | 1.03 |
| Betfair | 9.50 | 1.04 |
| BetVictor | 1.35 | 2.86 |
| Marathonbet | 8.50 | 1.01 |
| MelBet | 1.53 | 2.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.20 | 4.70 |
Goals Over/Under
| Bookmaker | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1xbet | 6.62 | 1.07 |
| Betano.dk | 12.50 | 1.03 |
| BetVictor | 8.00 | 1.05 |
| Marathonbet | 6.50 | 1.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.86 | 1.26 |
HT/FT Double
| Bookmaker | Home/Draw | Home/Away | Draw/Away | Draw/Draw | Home/Home | Draw/Home | Away/Home | Away/Draw | Away/Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xbet | 15.00 | 41.00 | 7.60 | 4.65 | 3.26 | 5.05 | 31.00 | 15.50 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 15.25 | 41.00 | 7.60 | 4.65 | 3.26 | 5.05 | 31.00 | 15.50 | 5.80 |
More on Leganés vs Burgos
- Leganés stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Burgos stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- La Liga 2 (Spain) table & fixturesStandings, results and league leaders
- Mathematical football predictionsThis week's model probabilities for every match
- Over/under goals screenerGoal-line hit rates for every upcoming match
- Corner stats screenerCorner lines and hit rates by fixture