Cerro Largo vs Atlético Progreso Prediction – Match preview
Cerro Largo-:-
Atlético ProgresoEstadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla
Our prediction
Cerro Largo to win (46%)
Cerro Largo 46% · Draw 31% · Atlético Progreso 23% · Over 2.5 goals: 29% · Both teams to score: 35%
From our goals model. A chance, not a certainty.
Match Preview
Updated 07 Nov 2026FootyPulse model
46%
23%
CLFCDraw 31%Atlético Progreso
Bookmaker implied
45%
27%
CLFCDraw 28%Atlético Progreso
1.1 – 0.7
Expected score
29%
Over 2.5 goals
35%
Both teams to score
Data provider's forecast
Full Time Result
41%
30%
CLFCDraw 29%Atlético Progreso
First Half Result
30%
21%
CLFCDraw 49%Atlético Progreso
Team to Score First
51%
38%
CLFCNo goal 11%Atlético Progreso
Probability
Both Teams to Score
46%
Over 1.5 Goals
65%
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
Over 3.5 Goals
19%
CLFC Over 3.5 Goals
4%
CLFC Over 1.5 Goals
34%
Atlético Progreso Over 0.5 Goals
61%
CLFC Over 0.5 Goals
70%
Match Result
Cerro Largo
43%2.07
model 2.34-12%
Last 1020%4/20
Draw
28%3.51
model 3.61-3%
Last 1020%4/20
Atlético Progreso
30%3.39
model 3.380%
Last 1060%12/20
Draw no bet
Cerro Largo
59%1.48
model 1.69-13%
Last 1025%4/16
Atlético Progreso
41%2.42
model 2.44-1%
Last 1075%12/16
Double chance
Cerro Largo or draw
70%1.30
model 1.42-8%
Last 1040%8/20
Cerro Largo or Atlético Progreso
72%1.29
model 1.38-7%
Last 1080%16/20
Draw or Atlético Progreso
57%1.72
model 1.74-1%
Last 1080%16/20
Expected goals 1.3–1.2 · Odds: Pinnacle; the chance shown leans on its price.Match result screener
Goals
Expected 2.5 match goalsGoal screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 0.5 | 91% | 9% | – | 95%19/20 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 | 71% | 29% | 1.32 / 3.24 | 75%15/20 | -7% / -5% |
| Over/under 2.5main | 46% | 54% | 2.03 / 1.77 | 35%7/20 | -7% / -4% |
| Over/under 3.5 | 25% | 75% | 3.58 / 1.27 | 15%3/20 | -11% / -4% |
| Over/under 4.5 | 10% | 90% | – | 5%1/20 | – |
Both teams to score
49%Yes 1.90
Last 1050%10/20
Cerro Largo clean sheet
27%
model chance
Atlético Progreso clean sheet
32%
model chance
Cerro Largo goals
O0.5 68%O1.5 32%O2.5 11%
Atlético Progreso goals
O0.5 73%O1.5 38%O2.5 15%
Corners
Expected 9.2 match cornersCorner screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 7.5 | 70% | 30% | – | 65%13/20 | – |
| Over/under 8.5 | 57% | 43% | – | 60%12/20 | – |
| Over/under 9.5main | 43% | 57% | – | 30%6/20 | – |
| Over/under 10.5 | 31% | 69% | – | 25%5/20 | – |
| Over/under 11.5 | 21% | 79% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
| Over/under 12.5 | 14% | 86% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
| Over/under 13.5 | 8% | 92% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
Cerro Largo corners
O2.5 86%O3.5 71%O4.5 52%O5.5 35%O6.5 21%O7.5 11%
Atlético Progreso corners
O2.5 81%O3.5 63%O4.5 44%O5.5 27%O6.5 15%O7.5 8%
Cards
Expected 5.0 match cardsCard screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 | 87% | 13% | – | 95%19/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 73% | 27% | – | 85%17/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5main | 55% | 45% | – | 60%12/20 | – |
| Over/under 5.5 | 38% | 62% | – | 40%8/20 | – |
| Over/under 6.5 | 23% | 77% | – | 35%7/20 | – |
Cerro Largo cards
O0.5 92%O1.5 71%O2.5 46%O3.5 24%
Atlético Progreso cards
O0.5 91%O1.5 70%O2.5 45%O3.5 23%
Form Guide
Updated 07 Nov 2026CLFCAtlético Progreso
- 12
- League position
- 15
- LWDLL
- Last 5
- LWWDL
- 0.80
- Points per game (L5)
- 1.40
- 5
- Goals scored (L5)
- 6
- 7
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 6
- —
- xG for (L5)
- —
- —
- xG against (L5)
- —
- 1
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 2
Head to Head
10
CLFC wins
4
Draws
0
Atlético Progreso wins
Last 14 meetings
2.0
Goals per game
50%
Both teams scored
43%
Over 2.5 goals
Last meeting
CLFC in the last 5 meetings
WWWWW
Injuries & Suspensions
CLFC
No reported absences
Atlético Progreso
- Agustín RequenaCruciate Ligament Tear
- Nahuel AcostaMuscle Injury
- Santino BruschiCruciate Ligament Tear
- Sebastián CardozoIndirect Card Suspension
Key Players
Primera Division, this seasonCLFC
Top scorer
A. Pandiani
7 goals
Most assists
Sebastián Assís
2 assists
Best rated
Federico Sellecchia
6.63
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander HernandezDefender | 33 (33) | 2758 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.32 | ×6 |
| Sebastián AssísMidfielder | 31 (30) | 2506 | 0 | 2 | – | 6.34 | ×8 |
| Pedro GonzálezGoalkeeper | 29 (29) | 2476 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.14 | ×3 |
| Santiago FrancaDefender | 29 (27) | 2357 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.25 | ×6 |
| M. GarcíaMidfielder | 33 (28) | 2211 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.41 | ×2 |
| Santiago MarcelMidfielder | 26 (25) | 2114 | 2 | 0 | – | 6.38 | ×6 |
| Lucas CorreaDefender | 25 (25) | 2002 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.27 | ×5 |
| A. PandianiMidfielder | 26 (25) | 1956 | 7 | 1 | – | 6.43 | ×4 |
| Alexis PiegasDefender | 22 (20) | 1810 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.24 | ×11 |
| Tiziano Correa ReyesAttacker | 19 (19) | 1616 | 5 | 2 | – | 6.61 | ×2 |
| Matías FracchiaDefender | 15 (15) | 1229 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.29 | ×2 |
| Gustavo VieraMidfielder | 26 (16) | 1205 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.44 | ×2 |
| N. RamosDefender | 23 (10) | 1035 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.34 | ×2 |
| Maximiliano AñascoMidfielder | 16 (9) | 857 | 1 | 1 | – | 6.47 | |
| Emiliano Nicolás Jourdan BellionMidfielder | 17 (8) | 684 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.43 | ×5 |
Atlético Progreso
Top scorer
Nahuel López
10 goals
Most assists
Facundo de León Abate
2 assists
Best rated
Nahuel López
6.58
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. PinheiroMidfielder | 32 (32) | 2535 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.34 | ×2 |
| H. CarrosoDefender | 30 (28) | 2400 | 1 | 1 | – | 6.20 | ×2 |
| Nahuel LópezMidfielder | 30 (26) | 2125 | 10 | 1 | – | 6.58 | ×2 |
| M. MartínDefender | 27 (25) | 1969 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.24 | ×3 |
| Ayrton CougoDefender | 23 (22) | 1592 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.24 | ×7 |
| Facundo de León AbateMidfielder | 24 (19) | 1494 | 1 | 2 | – | 6.46 | ×3 |
| G. TrasanteDefender | 26 (16) | 1370 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.30 | ×5 |
| Andrés MehringGoalkeeper | 16 (16) | 1350 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.23 | |
| Adrián ColombinoMidfielder | 18 (17) | 1281 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.33 | ×2 |
| N. FernándezMidfielder | 18 (14) | 1090 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.49 | ×4 |
| R. BacchiaGoalkeeper | 13 (13) | 1080 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.13 | ×2 |
| M. CopelottiAttacker | 25 (10) | 1035 | 2 | 0 | – | 6.47 | ×2 |
| Emiliano ÁlvarezDefender | 14 (13) | 1008 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.29 | ×3 |
| Agustín OcampoMidfielder | 14 (13) | 927 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.43 | ×4 |
| Ramiro CristóbalMidfielder | 13 (13) | 898 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.37 | ×3 |
Odds Comparison
Asian Handicap
| Bookmaker | Home | Away | 1 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xbet | 8.65 | 1.01 | — | — |
| bet365 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.85 |
| Marathonbet | 8.90 | 1.01 | — | — |
| MelBet | 1.44 | 2.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.21 | 4.33 | — | — |
Goals Over/Under
| Bookmaker | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1xbet | 17.00 | 1.02 |
| bet365 | 2.10 | 1.70 |
| Marathonbet | 6.85 | 1.04 |
| Pinnacle | 3.58 | 1.27 |
HT/FT Double
| Bookmaker | Home/Draw | Home/Away | Draw/Away | Draw/Draw | Home/Home | Draw/Home | Away/Home | Away/Draw | Away/Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xbet | 15.00 | 38.00 | 7.40 | 4.75 | 3.16 | 5.00 | 30.00 | 15.00 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 15.00 | 38.00 | 7.40 | 4.75 | 3.16 | 5.00 | 30.00 | 15.00 | 5.40 |
More on Cerro Largo vs Atlético Progreso
- Cerro Largo stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Atlético Progreso stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Primera Division (Uruguay) table & fixturesStandings, results and league leaders
- Mathematical football predictionsThis week's model probabilities for every match
- Over/under goals screenerGoal-line hit rates for every upcoming match
- Corner stats screenerCorner lines and hit rates by fixture