Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro Prediction – Match preview

Saturday, 14 November 2026 · 20:30

Deportivo Maldonado

-:-

Cerro

Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel

Our prediction

Deportivo Maldonado to win (71%)

Deportivo Maldonado 71% · Draw 18% · Cerro 11%

Our model and the bookmakers disagree strongly on this match, which usually means the model is missing team news, so this call blends the two.

Match Preview

Updated 07 Nov 2026

FootyPulse model

84%

Deportivo MaldonadoDraw 11%Cerro

Bookmaker implied

58%

17%

Deportivo MaldonadoDraw 25%Cerro

2.9 – 0.6

Expected score

66%

Over 2.5 goals

40%

Both teams to score

Data provider's forecast

Full Time Result

62%

15%

Deportivo MaldonadoDraw 23%Cerro

First Half Result

42%

15%

Deportivo MaldonadoDraw 43%Cerro

Team to Score First

64%

28%

Deportivo MaldonadoNo goal 8%Cerro

Probability

Both Teams to Score

46%

Over 1.5 Goals

74%

Over 2.5 Goals

49%

Over 3.5 Goals

26%

Deportivo Maldonado Over 3.5 Goals

10%

Deportivo Maldonado Over 1.5 Goals

54%

Cerro Over 0.5 Goals

50%

Deportivo Maldonado Over 0.5 Goals

84%

Match Result

Deportivo Maldonado

56%1.59

model 1.80-11%

Last 1045%9/20

Draw

25%3.91

model 4.00-2%

Last 1025%5/20

Cerro

19%5.39

model 5.18+4%

Last 1030%6/20

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maldonado

74%1.18

model 1.35-12%

Last 1060%9/15

Cerro

26%4.01

model 3.88+3%

Last 1040%6/15

Double chance

Deportivo Maldonado or draw

81%1.13

model 1.24-9%

Last 1070%14/20

Deportivo Maldonado or Cerro

75%1.23

model 1.33-8%

Last 1075%15/20

Draw or Cerro

44%2.27

model 2.26+1%

Last 1055%11/20

Expected goals 1.6–1.0 · Odds: Pinnacle; the chance shown leans on its price.Match result screener

Goals

Expected 2.6 match goalsGoal screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	EV O / U
Over/under 0.5	92%	8%	–	90%18/20	–
Over/under 1.5	73%	27%	–	80%16/20	–
Over/under 2.5main	48%	52%	–	40%8/20	–
Over/under 3.5	26%	74%	–	20%4/20	–
Over/under 4.5	12%	88%	–	10%2/20	–

Both teams to score

47%Yes 2.20

Last 1050%10/20

Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet

32%

model chance

Cerro clean sheet

24%

model chance

Deportivo Maldonado goals

O0.5 76%O1.5 42%O2.5 18%

Cerro goals

O0.5 68%O1.5 32%O2.5 11%

Corners

Expected 8.9 match cornersCorner screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	EV O / U
Over/under 7.5	67%	33%	–	45%9/20	–
Over/under 8.5main	54%	46%	–	35%7/20	–
Over/under 9.5	40%	60%	–	20%4/20	–
Over/under 10.5	29%	71%	–	20%4/20	–
Over/under 11.5	19%	81%	–	20%4/20	–
Over/under 12.5	12%	88%	–	15%3/20	–
Over/under 13.5	7%	93%	–	10%2/20	–

Deportivo Maldonado corners

O2.5 87%O3.5 72%O4.5 54%O5.5 37%O6.5 22%O7.5 12%

Cerro corners

O2.5 77%O3.5 57%O4.5 38%O5.5 22%O6.5 11%O7.5 5%

Cards

Expected 5.2 match cardsCard screener

Line	Over	Under	Odds O / U	L10 over	EV O / U
Over/under 2.5	89%	11%	–	100%20/20	–
Over/under 3.5	76%	24%	–	95%19/20	–
Over/under 4.5	59%	41%	–	75%15/20	–
Over/under 5.5main	41%	59%	–	40%8/20	–
Over/under 6.5	26%	74%	–	30%6/20	–

Deportivo Maldonado cards

O0.5 91%O1.5 69%O2.5 43%O3.5 22%

Cerro cards

O0.5 94%O1.5 77%O2.5 53%O3.5 30%

Key Players

Primera Division, this season