Nacional vs Albion Prediction – Match preview
Nacional-:-
AlbionEstadio Gran Parque Central
Our prediction
Nacional to win (53%)
Nacional 53% · Draw 25% · Albion 22%
Our model and the bookmakers disagree strongly on this match, which usually means the model is missing team news, so this call blends the two.
Match Preview
Updated 07 Nov 2026FootyPulse model
42%
29%
NacionalDraw 29%Albion
Bookmaker implied
64%
15%
NacionalDraw 21%Albion
1.2 – 1.0
Expected score
38%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Both teams to score
Data provider's forecast
Full Time Result
50%
23%
NacionalDraw 27%Albion
First Half Result
35%
19%
NacionalDraw 46%Albion
Team to Score First
57%
34%
NacionalNo goal 9%Albion
Probability
Both Teams to Score
48%
Over 1.5 Goals
70%
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
23%
Nacional Over 3.5 Goals
6%
Nacional Over 1.5 Goals
44%
Albion Over 0.5 Goals
58%
Nacional Over 0.5 Goals
77%
Match Result
Nacional
59%1.45
model 1.68-14%
Last 1060%12/20
Draw
23%4.51
model 4.42+2%
Last 1015%3/20
Albion
18%6.31
model 5.56disputed
Last 1025%5/20
Draw no bet
Nacional
77%1.13
model 1.30-13%
Last 1071%12/17
Albion
23%4.91
model 4.30disputed
Last 1029%5/17
Double chance
Nacional or draw
82%1.10
model 1.22-10%
Last 1075%15/20
Nacional or Albion
77%1.18
model 1.29-9%
Last 1085%17/20
Draw or Albion
41%2.63
model 2.46disputed
Last 1040%8/20
Expected goals 1.6–1.1 · Odds: Pinnacle; the chance shown leans on its price.Match result screener
Goals
Expected 2.7 match goalsGoal screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 0.5 | 93% | 7% | – | 95%19/20 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 | 76% | 24% | – | 65%13/20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5main | 51% | 49% | – | 50%10/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 29% | 71% | – | 35%7/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5 | 14% | 86% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
Both teams to score
52%Yes 1.83
Last 1055%11/20
Nacional clean sheet
29%
model chance
Albion clean sheet
23%
model chance
Nacional goals
O0.5 77%O1.5 44%O2.5 19%
Albion goals
O0.5 71%O1.5 35%O2.5 13%
Corners
Expected 10.0 match cornersCorner screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 7.5 | 78% | 22% | – | 80%16/20 | – |
| Over/under 8.5 | 67% | 33% | – | 75%15/20 | – |
| Over/under 9.5 | 54% | 46% | – | 50%10/20 | – |
| Over/under 10.5main | 42% | 58% | – | 30%6/20 | – |
| Over/under 11.5 | 30% | 70% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
| Over/under 12.5 | 21% | 79% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
| Over/under 13.5 | 14% | 86% | – | 15%3/20 | – |
Nacional corners
O2.5 92%O3.5 82%O4.5 67%O5.5 50%O6.5 34%O7.5 21%
Albion corners
O2.5 80%O3.5 63%O4.5 43%O5.5 27%O6.5 15%O7.5 7%
Cards
Expected 5.3 match cardsCard screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 | 90% | 10% | – | 100%20/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 78% | 22% | – | 90%18/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5 | 61% | 39% | – | 65%13/20 | – |
| Over/under 5.5main | 44% | 56% | – | 50%10/20 | – |
| Over/under 6.5 | 29% | 71% | – | 40%8/20 | – |
Nacional cards
O0.5 93%O1.5 74%O2.5 49%O3.5 27%
Albion cards
O0.5 93%O1.5 75%O2.5 50%O3.5 28%
Form Guide
Updated 07 Nov 2026NacionalAlbion
- 4
- League position
- 8
- WLWWW
- Last 5
- DWWWW
- 2.40
- Points per game (L5)
- 2.60
- 8
- Goals scored (L5)
- 9
- 4
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 4
- —
- xG for (L5)
- —
- —
- xG against (L5)
- —
- 2
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 2
Head to Head
3
Nacional wins
0
Draws
1
Albion wins
Last 4 meetings
2.3
Goals per game
25%
Both teams scored
25%
Over 2.5 goals
Last meeting
Nacional in the last 4 meetings
WLWW
Injuries & Suspensions
Nacional
- Luis MejíaLeg Injury
Albion
- Agustín PereiraCruciate Ligament Tear
- Andrés RomeroCruciate Ligament Tear
- Danilo LerdaCruciate Ligament Tear
Key Players
Primera Division, this seasonNacional
Top scorer
Maxi Gómez
15 goals
Most assists
Gastón Martirena
3 assists
Best rated
Julián Millán
6.76
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. BoggioMidfielder | 30 (27) | 2063 | 3 | 0 | – | 6.42 | ×4 |
| Luis MejíaGoalkeeper | 23 (22) | 1965 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.22 | |
| Maxi GómezAttacker | 28 (24) | 1951 | 15 | 0 | – | 6.57 | ×7 |
| Lucas RodríguezMidfielder | 27 (21) | 1736 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.44 | ×5 |
| Sebastián CoatesDefender | 21 (21) | 1645 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.33 | ×9 |
| E. AnchetaDefender | 22 (19) | 1465 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.32 | ×5 |
| Camilo CándidoDefender | 23 (18) | 1421 | 1 | 1 | – | 6.38 | ×4 |
| Agustín RogelDefender | 17 (15) | 1286 | 2 | 0 | – | 6.28 | ×5 |
| T. VieraDefender | 18 (15) | 1215 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.23 | ×3 |
| Maximiliano SilveraAttacker | 23 (13) | 1210 | 4 | 0 | – | 6.56 | ×4 |
| Francisco CalvoDefender | 13 (13) | 1070 | 5 | 0 | – | 6.33 | ×5 |
| Tomás Verón LupiMidfielder | 22 (16) | 998 | 4 | 1 | – | 6.53 | |
| Tiziano Correa ReyesAttacker | 12 (10) | 816 | 2 | 0 | – | 6.54 | |
| Gastón MartirenaDefender | 10 (10) | 807 | 0 | 3 | – | 6.36 | |
| Nicolás RodríguezDefender | 13 (7) | 747 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.32 | ×2 |
Albion
Top scorer
Álvaro López
17 goals
Most assists
Agustín Bernardo Vera Flores
3 assists
Best rated
Lucas Rodríguez
6.61
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian JaumeGoalkeeper | 33 (33) | 2790 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.13 | – |
| Francisco GinellaMidfielder | 34 (34) | 2600 | 4 | 2 | – | 6.40 | ×7 |
| José ÁlvarezDefender | 34 (33) | 2497 | 4 | 0 | – | 6.26 | |
| Carlos AiralaAttacker | 29 (26) | 2108 | 5 | 2 | – | 6.51 | ×9 |
| Francisco Mario Couture ArragaDefender | 27 (24) | 2049 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.23 | ×8 |
| Tomás MoschiónMidfielder | 27 (26) | 1953 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.44 | ×4 |
| Álvaro LópezAttacker | 31 (22) | 1936 | 17 | 2 | – | 6.60 | ×2 |
| Hernán ToledoMidfielder | 32 (25) | 1828 | 2 | 2 | – | 6.51 | ×3 |
| S. CostaMidfielder | 24 (20) | 1426 | 1 | 1 | – | 6.31 | ×6 |
| Agustín Bernardo Vera FloresMidfielder | 26 (16) | 1310 | 1 | 3 | – | 6.45 | ×4 |
| Matías De los SantosDefender | 20 (15) | 1152 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.31 | |
| Pablo LacosteDefender | 18 (12) | 1047 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.30 | ×3 |
| Andrés RomeroDefender | 12 (10) | 971 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.34 | ×3 |
| Pablo Alcoba DaguirreMidfielder | 19 (9) | 952 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.35 | ×2 |
| Tobías FigueroaAttacker | 26 (14) | 940 | 5 | 0 | – | 6.55 | ×2 |
Odds Comparison
Asian Handicap
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.87 | 1.92 | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — | 1.69 | 1.99 |
| MelBet | — | — | 2.19 | 1.54 |
| Pinnacle | — | — | 2.03 | 1.78 |
Goals Over/Under
| Bookmaker | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.75 | 2.05 |
| Betano.dk | 11.25 | 1.02 |
More on Nacional vs Albion
- Nacional stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Albion stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Primera Division (Uruguay) table & fixturesStandings, results and league leaders
- Mathematical football predictionsThis week's model probabilities for every match
- Over/under goals screenerGoal-line hit rates for every upcoming match
- Corner stats screenerCorner lines and hit rates by fixture