Beşiktaş host Crystal Palace in Istanbul tonight, 22 October, in the Europa League league phase. Kick-off is 21:00 CEST (20:00 BST). Both clubs have been free-scoring in Europe this autumn, and both arrive off heavy weekend defeats.
How they got here
Beşiktaş have won both of their league-phase games: 4-1 at home to Olympique Marseille on 17 September and 3-2 away at TSG Hoffenheim on 15 October.
Crystal Palace opened with a 4-0 home win over Lech Poznań on 17 September, then lost 3-2 away to Olympique Lyonnais on 15 October.
Domestically, neither side comes in on a high. Palace were beaten 5-0 at Brighton & Hove Albion in the Premier League on 18 October, and Beşiktaş lost 2-0 away to Trabzonspor in the Süper Lig on 19 October.
What the model says
The FootyPulse model makes Beşiktaş clear favourites. Bookmaker prices are far less sure:
| Beşiktaş win | Draw | Palace win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FootyPulse model | 65% | 18% | 17% |
| Implied by bookmaker prices | 44% | 25% | 30% |
The model also expects goals: it gives over 2.5 goals a 65% chance and both teams to score 55%. Its most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%) and 1-1 (8.3%).
Mind the gap
The model rates a Beşiktaş win 21 points higher than the market does. On our predictions board, gaps over 15 points are treated as a sign the model is missing something (team news, rotation or motivation) rather than as value.
Team news
- Beşiktaş: Orkun Kökçü is out with a partial tear of the plantar fascia and is expected back in early November. Milot Rashica and Can Keleş are listed as not eligible.
- Crystal Palace: Chadi Riad remains out with a knee injury; he has missed the last 10 games.
The referee
Danny Makkelie takes charge. In the 64 matches of his in our database he has averaged 3.4 cards and 0.39 penalties per game, and home sides have won 45% of them.
The full match preview has the odds comparison, line-ups once they are announced, player stats and the referee card. Every model call for this week is on the predictions board.
Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
