Community Shield

A goals model gives each side an expected number of goals from its recent attack and defence, then works out the chance of every result. Each Community Shield (England) match shows the model's single most likely call across the result, over/under 2.5 goals and both teams to score, beside the bookmaker's price.

Only matches whose prediction can be checked against a bookmaker price, and sits within 15 points of it, are listed. A bigger gap usually means the model is missing team news, so the match is left out rather than shown with a number nobody should trust.

There are not yet enough settled Community Shield (England) matches with a pre-match prediction to quote a reliable hit rate for this league. The model's record across every league is on the mathematical predictions page.