Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol Prediction – Match preview
Defensor Sporting-:-
PeñarolEstadio Luis Franzini
Our prediction
Peñarol to win (66%)
Defensor Sporting 10% · Draw 24% · Peñarol 66% · Over 2.5 goals: 34% · Both teams to score: 29%
From our goals model. A chance, not a certainty.
Match Preview
Updated 08 Nov 2026FootyPulse model
10%
66%
Defensor SportingDraw 24%Peñarol
Bookmaker implied
19%
56%
Defensor SportingDraw 25%Peñarol
0.5 – 1.6
Expected score
34%
Over 2.5 goals
29%
Both teams to score
Data provider's forecast
Full Time Result
26%
44%
Defensor SportingDraw 30%Peñarol
First Half Result
20%
33%
Defensor SportingDraw 47%Peñarol
Team to Score First
34%
55%
Defensor SportingNo goal 11%Peñarol
Probability
Both Teams to Score
45%
Over 1.5 Goals
68%
Over 2.5 Goals
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
21%
Defensor Sporting Over 3.5 Goals
2%
Defensor Sporting Over 1.5 Goals
24%
Peñarol Over 0.5 Goals
73%
Defensor Sporting Over 0.5 Goals
59%
Match Result
Defensor Sporting
24%4.72
model 4.15disputed
Last 1020%4/20
Draw
26%3.82
model 3.90-2%
Last 1030%6/20
Peñarol
50%1.68
model 1.99-16%
Last 1050%10/20
Draw no bet
Defensor Sporting
32%3.48
model 3.09disputed
Last 1029%4/14
Peñarol
68%1.24
model 1.48-16%
Last 1071%10/14
Double chance
Defensor Sporting or draw
50%2.11
model 2.01disputed
Last 1050%10/20
Defensor Sporting or Peñarol
74%1.24
model 1.35-8%
Last 1070%14/20
Draw or Peñarol
76%1.17
model 1.32-11%
Last 1080%16/20
Expected goals 1.3–1.4 · Odds: Pinnacle; the chance shown leans on its price.Match result screener
Goals
Expected 2.7 match goalsGoal screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 0.5 | 93% | 7% | – | 95%19/20 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 | 75% | 25% | – | 70%14/20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5main | 50% | 50% | – | 45%9/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 28% | 72% | – | 35%7/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5 | 14% | 86% | – | 20%4/20 | – |
Both teams to score
52%Yes 1.83
Last 1060%12/20
Defensor Sporting clean sheet
22%
model chance
Peñarol clean sheet
30%
model chance
Defensor Sporting goals
O0.5 70%O1.5 33%O2.5 12%
Peñarol goals
O0.5 78%O1.5 44%O2.5 19%
Corners
Expected 8.7 match cornersCorner screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 7.5 | 63% | 37% | – | 55%11/20 | – |
| Over/under 8.5main | 50% | 50% | – | 55%11/20 | – |
| Over/under 9.5 | 37% | 63% | – | 20%4/20 | – |
| Over/under 10.5 | 25% | 75% | – | 10%2/20 | – |
| Over/under 11.5 | 16% | 84% | – | 5%1/20 | – |
| Over/under 12.5 | 10% | 90% | – | 5%1/20 | – |
| Over/under 13.5 | 6% | 94% | – | 5%1/20 | – |
Defensor Sporting corners
O2.5 79%O3.5 61%O4.5 41%O5.5 25%O6.5 13%O7.5 6%
Peñarol corners
O2.5 82%O3.5 65%O4.5 46%O5.5 29%O6.5 16%O7.5 8%
Cards
Expected 5.5 match cardsCard screener
| Line | Over | Under | Odds O / U | L10 over | EV O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 | 91% | 9% | – | 95%19/20 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 | 80% | 20% | – | 85%17/20 | – |
| Over/under 4.5 | 64% | 36% | – | 70%14/20 | – |
| Over/under 5.5main | 47% | 53% | – | 55%11/20 | – |
| Over/under 6.5 | 31% | 69% | – | 45%9/20 | – |
Defensor Sporting cards
O0.5 91%O1.5 70%O2.5 44%O3.5 23%
Peñarol cards
O0.5 95%O1.5 81%O2.5 59%O3.5 37%
Form Guide
Updated 08 Nov 2026Defensor SportingPeñarol
- 11
- League position
- 1
- WDLLL
- Last 5
- DDLDW
- 0.80
- Points per game (L5)
- 1.20
- 9
- Goals scored (L5)
- 3
- 10
- Goals conceded (L5)
- 3
- —
- xG for (L5)
- —
- —
- xG against (L5)
- —
- 1
- Clean sheets (L5)
- 2
Head to Head
14
Defensor Sporting wins
15
Draws
24
Peñarol wins
Last 53 meetings
2.4
Goals per game
53%
Both teams scored
47%
Over 2.5 goals
Last meeting
Defensor Sporting in the last 5 meetings
LDLLL
Key Players
Primera Division, this seasonDefensor Sporting
Top scorer
Brian Montenegro
9 goals
Most assists
Lucas Agazzi
3 assists
Best rated
Xavier Biscayzacú
6.75
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas AgazziDefender | 35 (35) | 2908 | 3 | 3 | – | 6.34 | ×3 |
| Axel Emilio Frugone MarottaDefender | 33 (31) | 2619 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.30 | ×10 |
| Brian MontenegroAttacker | 34 (32) | 2610 | 9 | 0 | – | 6.57 | |
| Kevin DawsonGoalkeeper | 31 (31) | 2551 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.18 | – |
| Guillermo de los SantosDefender | 28 (28) | 2347 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.28 | ×9 |
| Germán BarriosMidfielder | 31 (29) | 2308 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.45 | ×2 |
| Nicolás WunschMidfielder | 32 (24) | 2038 | 3 | 2 | – | 6.41 | ×3 |
| Lucas de los SantosMidfielder | 24 (21) | 1839 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.36 | ×3 |
| Mauricio AmaroMidfielder | 20 (20) | 1615 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.48 | ×6 |
| Alan Facundo Torterolo del ArcoMidfielder | 29 (14) | 1377 | 1 | 0 | – | 6.44 | ×4 |
| Alexander MachadoAttacker | 18 (16) | 1148 | 3 | 1 | – | 6.59 | |
| Geanfranco RodríguezDefender | 16 (11) | 895 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.31 | ×2 |
| Edgar ElizaldeDefender | 9 (9) | 747 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.12 | ×3 |
| Facundo CastroMidfielder | 15 (8) | 627 | 1 | 1 | – | 6.53 | – |
| Xavier BiscayzacúMidfielder | 10 (7) | 543 | 2 | 0 | – | 6.75 | ×2 |
Peñarol
Top scorer
Matías Arezo
14 goals
Most assists
Javier Cabrera
4 assists
Best rated
Leonardo Fernández
6.73
| Player | Apps | Min | G | A | xG | Rating | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington AguerreGoalkeeper | 31 (31) | 2700 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.27 | ×7 |
| Matías ArezoAttacker | 32 (28) | 2483 | 14 | 0 | – | 6.68 | ×4 |
| Lucas FerreiraDefender | 29 (28) | 2476 | 2 | 0 | – | 6.40 | ×12 |
| Nicolás FernándezMidfielder | 30 (28) | 2222 | 3 | 1 | – | 6.42 | ×7 |
| Eric RemediMidfielder | 28 (24) | 2163 | 1 | 3 | – | 6.43 | ×13 |
| Leandro Nicolás Umpiérrez HernándezMidfielder | 28 (21) | 1922 | 5 | 1 | – | 6.45 | ×4 |
| Jesús TrindadeMidfielder | 21 (17) | 1419 | 1 | 1 | – | 6.41 | ×5 |
| Javier CabreraMidfielder | 19 (17) | 1271 | 0 | 4 | – | 6.45 | – |
| Eduardo DaríasMidfielder | 19 (17) | 1265 | 2 | 1 | – | 6.45 | ×5 |
| Mauricio LemosDefender | 20 (16) | 1223 | 0 | 0 | – | 6.32 | ×4 |
| Maximiliano OliveraDefender | 19 (18) | 1201 | 3 | 0 | – | 6.31 | ×3 |
| Franco EscobarDefender | 14 (12) | 1014 | 0 | 1 | – | 6.46 | ×2 |
| Abel HernándezAttacker | 23 (10) | 994 | 8 | 0 | – | 6.58 | ×3 |
| Gastón TogniMidfielder | 18 (14) | 992 | 1 | 1 | – | 6.49 | ×2 |
| Leonardo FernándezMidfielder | 10 (10) | 879 | 1 | 3 | – | 6.73 | ×2 |
Odds Comparison
Asian Handicap
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 2.00 | 1.80 | — | — |
| Marathonbet | — | — | 1.59 | 2.15 |
| MelBet | — | — | 1.33 | 2.81 |
| Pinnacle | — | — | 1.89 | 1.90 |
Goals Over/Under
| Bookmaker | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| Betano.dk | 12.50 | 1.01 |
More on Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol
- Defensor Sporting stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Peñarol stats & fixturesForm, results and the next matches
- Primera Division (Uruguay) table & fixturesStandings, results and league leaders
- Mathematical football predictionsThis week's model probabilities for every match
- Over/under goals screenerGoal-line hit rates for every upcoming match
- Corner stats screenerCorner lines and hit rates by fixture