Two ways to take the draw out of a bet
The draw is the awkward outcome in football betting. It happens in roughly a quarter of matches, often more, and it beats both teams' backers at once. Double chance and draw no bet are two different ways of dealing with it.
- Double chance lets you cover two of the three results with one bet.
- Draw no bet removes the draw entirely: if the match is drawn, your stake comes back.
Both are safer than a straight match bet, and both pay less. The question is whether the price you get for that safety is fair.
Double chance: three options
A double chance market has three selections:
- 1X (home or draw): wins if the home team wins or the match is drawn.
- X2 (draw or away): wins if the away team wins or the match is drawn.
- 12 (home or away): wins if either team wins; loses only on a draw.
Double chance is settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If a cup tie goes to extra time, a draw at 90 minutes counts as a draw.
Draw no bet: a refund on the draw
A draw no bet bet on a team wins if they win and loses if they lose. If the match is drawn, your stake is returned. It is exactly the same as an Asian handicap of 0, and it is sometimes listed that way.
How often is a match drawn?
Across finished matches in the 12 months to 29 October 2026, FootyPulse's match data shows these draw rates:
- Premier League: 29.2% of 370 matches
- Eredivisie: 28.2%
- Superliga (Denmark): 28.0%
- Allsvenskan: 27.2%
- Liga Portugal: 26.3%
- Ligue 1: 25.7%
- Championship: 25.4%
- Bundesliga: 25.3%
- La Liga: 24.7%
- Scottish Premiership: 23.4%
- Serie A: 22.0%
- Eliteserien: 17.6%
The Premier League produced draws in almost three matches out of ten over the period, while Norway's Eliteserien produced them in fewer than one in five. How much a draw is worth to you depends on where you are betting.
How the prices are built
Both markets are built from the same three match-result probabilities, so you can check their prices yourself.
Take a match priced Home 2.10, Draw 3.40, Away 3.60. With the margin removed (see our guide to reading betting odds), the bookmaker's view is roughly Home 45.4%, Draw 28.1%, Away 26.5%.
Fair double chance prices
- 1X: 45.4% + 28.1% = 73.5%, a fair price of 1.36.
- X2: 28.1% + 26.5% = 54.6%, a fair price of 1.83.
- 12: 45.4% + 26.5% = 71.9%, a fair price of 1.39.
Fair draw no bet price
Draw no bet on the home side is the home win chance, measured only against the matches that are not drawn:
- 45.4% / (45.4% + 26.5%) = 63.1%, a fair price of 1.58.
If the bookmaker offers 1X at 1.30, that is an implied 76.9% against a fair 73.5%: you are paying a noticeably bigger margin than on the match result. If it offers 1.35, it is close to fair. This sum takes a minute and is worth doing every time.
A worked example with money
You have £20 to bet on the home side in the match above.
- Match result at 2.10: home win returns £42; draw or away win, you lose £20.
- Draw no bet at 1.55: home win returns £31; draw returns £20; away win loses £20.
- Double chance 1X at 1.35: home win or draw returns £27; away win loses £20.
Each step down in risk costs you return. Draw no bet gives up £11 of the win to protect you on the draw; double chance gives up £15 to turn the draw into a win.
When double chance makes sense
- Backing an underdog not to lose. X2 on an away side that is better than its price suggests, in a league with plenty of draws, can be a good way to express that view.
- Avoiding the draw in a high-draw league. In the Premier League's recent run, 1X or X2 covers a lot of ground.
- "12" in matches you expect to be open. If both teams are attacking and a draw looks unlikely, "12" can occasionally be underpriced, particularly in low-draw leagues such as the Eliteserien.
When draw no bet makes sense
- Backing a narrow favourite. If you think a team is better than its price but a draw is a real possibility, draw no bet protects your stake.
- Away teams in balanced matches. Draw no bet on the away side is often a cleaner bet than X2 when you genuinely expect the away side to win.
Where these markets go wrong
- Stacking double chance in accumulators. Short prices look safe, and the bet slip makes a five-fold of 1.30s look like an easy win. Each leg still carries a margin and each can lose. See our guide to accumulator mistakes.
- Paying too much for safety. Bookmakers sometimes put a larger margin on double chance than on the match result. Check the fair price before you bet.
- Confusing "safer" with "better". A bet that wins more often is not necessarily a better bet. What matters is whether the price is higher than the true chance justifies.
Responsible gambling
Safer-looking bets can encourage bigger stakes. Keep your stakes consistent whatever the market, set a budget and never chase losses. If gambling stops being fun, contact BeGambleAware.