Card Statistics
Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.
Card Screener
Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price, with value against bet365 where the odds are in.
Smart views
390 matches · best line per match
| Line | Odds | L15 | Last 10 · home / away | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 51%1.95 | – | 5.7 | 80%8/10 | 80%16/20 | 70%21/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.79 | – | 5.0 | 70%7/10 | 70%14/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.81 | – | 5.0 | 70%7/10 | 70%14/20 | 70%21/30 |   |
| Ref Davide Di Marco · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.94 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.82 | – | 3.9ref −0.3 | 80%8/10 | 70%14/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref Anderson Daronco · 5.1 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.87 | – | 5.9ref +0.8 | 50%5/10 | 70%14/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.87 | – | 3.8 | 60%6/10 | 70%14/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.88 | – | 4.8 | 70%7/10 | 70%14/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 47%2.12 | – | 5.5 | 60%6/10 | 70%14/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 57%1.77 | – | 4.0 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.81 | – | 3.9 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.85 | – | 4.9 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 67%20/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.85 | – | 4.9 | 80%8/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.87 | – | 4.9 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.87 | – | 4.8 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 67%20/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.90 | – | 4.8 | 90%9/10 | 65%13/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.04 | – | 4.6 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 45%2.20 | – | 4.4 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref Martin van den Kerkhof · 3.3 cards/match · ×0.82 | Over 2.5 Match cards | – | 58%1.74 | – | 3.0ref −0.7 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 57%1.77 | – | 4.0 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.77 | – | 4.0 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref Jakob Kehlet · 4.2 cards/match · ×0.97 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.78 | – | 4.0ref −0.1 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.78 | – | 4.0 | 40%4/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.79 | – | 4.0 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.79 | – | 4.0 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.82 | – | 3.9 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 47%14/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.83 | – | 4.9 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.83 | – | 4.9 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.87 | – | 4.9 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.89 | – | 4.8 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 52%1.93 | – | 4.8 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref Arnes Talic · 4.7 cards/match · ×1.05 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 52%1.93 | – | 4.8ref +0.2 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref Clément Turpin · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.88 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 51%1.94 | -15% | 3.5ref −0.5 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 51%1.96 | – | 5.7 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 67%20/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 51%1.97 | – | 4.7 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 51%1.97 | – | 4.7 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref Elliot Bell · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.90 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 50%1.99 | – | 3.7ref −0.4 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref Savio Pereira Sampaio · 4.7 cards/match · ×1.07 | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 50%2.01 | – | 5.7ref +0.4 | 90%9/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 50%2.01 | – | 4.7 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%13/23 |   |
| Ref Ruddy Buquet · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.84 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.61 62% | 50%2.01 | -20% | 3.3ref −0.6 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.04 | – | 4.6 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref Ingmar Oostrom · 2.9 cards/match · ×0.76 | Over 2.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.05 | – | 2.6ref −0.8 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.05 | – | 5.6 | 80%8/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 48%2.08 | – | 4.6 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 56%14/25 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 48%2.09 | – | 4.5 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 50%15/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 47%2.11 | – | 4.5 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 46%2.19 | – | 5.4 | 30%3/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 43%2.30 | – | 5.3 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref Martin Perez · 3.0 cards/match · ×0.79 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 42%2.37 | – | 3.3ref −0.9 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 42%2.40 | – | 5.2 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.90 | – | 3.8 | 50%5/10 | 57%8/14 | 57%8/14 |   |
- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.7 · Model 51%L580%8/10L1080%16/20L1570%21/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.0 · Model 56%L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.0 · Model 55%L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1570%21/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.9 · Model 55%L580%8/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.9 · Model 54%L550%5/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.8 · Model 53%L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 53%L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.5 · Model 47%L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 57%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.9 · Model 55%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 54%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1567%20/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 54%L580%8/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 53%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 53%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1567%20/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 53%L590%9/10L1065%13/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.6 · Model 49%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.4 · Model 45%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 2.5 Match cardsExp 3.0 · Model 58%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 57%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 56%L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 56%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 56%L540%4/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 56%L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 56%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.9 · Model 55%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1547%14/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 55%L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 55%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 53%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 53%L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 52%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
Rheindorf Altach
Austria WienToday 17:30 · Admiral BundesligaRef Arnes Talic · 4.7 cards/match · ×1.05––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 52%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30- 1.66-15%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.5 · Model 51%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.7 · Model 51%L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1567%20/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.7 · Model 51%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.7 · Model 51%L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
Preston North End
West Bromwich AlbionTomorrow 14:00 · ChampionshipRef Elliot Bell · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.90––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.7 · Model 50%L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.7 · Model 50%L590%9/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.7 · Model 50%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1557%13/23
- 1.61-20%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.3 · Model 50%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.6 · Model 49%L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 2.5 Match cardsExp 2.6 · Model 49%L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.6 · Model 49%L580%8/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.6 · Model 48%L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1556%14/25
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.5 · Model 48%L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1550%15/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.5 · Model 47%L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.4 · Model 46%L530%3/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.3 · Model 43%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.3 · Model 42%L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.2 · Model 42%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.8 · Model 53%L550%5/10L1057%8/14L1557%8/14
Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.7 to ×1.4); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 23 Oct, 02:17.
Referees this week — strictest first
| Referee | Cards / match | Effect | Next match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darío Herrera | 6.2 | ×1.35 |  Argentinos Juniorsv Independiente Rivadavia · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Sebastián Nicolás Martínez | 6.3 | ×1.33 |  Gimnasia La Platav Sarmiento · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Flavio Rodrigues De Souza | 5.9 | ×1.30 | Santosv Palmeiras · Serie A |
| Andrés Merlos | 5.9 | ×1.28 |  Barracas Centralv Estudiantes de Río Cuarto · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Yael Falcón Pérez | 5.8 | ×1.27 |  Rosario Centralv Huracán · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Paulo Cesar Zanovelli | 5.8 | ×1.27 |  Avaív Botafogo SP · Serie B |
| Nazareno Arasa | 5.9 | ×1.27 |  Independientev Boca Juniors · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Luis Lobo Medina | 5.9 | ×1.27 |  San Lorenzov Newell's Old Boys · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Lucas Paulo Torezin | 5.7 | ×1.25 |  Remov Botafogo · Serie A |
| Felipe Fernandes de Lima | 5.7 | ×1.24 |  Sport Recifev Criciúma · Serie B |
| Alex Gomes Stefano | 5.6 | ×1.24 |  São Bernardov Vila Nova · Serie B |
| Bruno Mota Correia | 7.4 | ×1.24 |  Juventudev Náutico · Serie B |
| Bruno Arleu de Araujo | 5.5 | ×1.22 |  CruzeirovRemo · Serie A |
| Wilton Pereira Sampaio | 5.4 | ×1.21 |  Vasco da Gamav Corinthians · Serie A |
| Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes | 5.4 | ×1.20 |  BragantinovChapecoense · Serie A |
| André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento | 5.4 | ×1.19 |  Vitóriav Athletico PR · Serie A |
| Fabio Maresca | 5.4 | ×1.18 |  Leccev Juventus · Serie A |
| Afro Rocha de Carvalho Filho | 5.3 | ×1.17 |  CRBv Londrina · Serie B |
| Ramon Abatti | 5.2 | ×1.16 |  Coritibav Grêmio · Serie A |
| David Dickinson | 5.3 | ×1.16 |  Dundee Unitedv Aberdeen · Premiership |
| Maguielson Lima Barbosa | 5.4 | ×1.16 |  Operário PRv Athletic Club · Serie B |
| Stuart Attwell | 5.2 | ×1.16 |  Sunderlandv Leeds United · Premier League |
| Anderson Daronco | 5.1 | ×1.15 | ChapecoensevFluminense · Serie A |
| Anderson Daronco | 5.1 | ×1.15 | Bahiav São Paulo · Serie A |
| Davi de Oliveira Lacerda | 5.1 | ×1.15 |  InternacionalvBotafogo · Serie A |
| Pablo Dóvalo | 5.1 | ×1.13 |  Unión Santa Fev Estudiantes · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Jodis Nascimento de Souza | 6.3 | ×1.13 |  América Mineirov Cuiabá · Serie B |
| Andy Madley | 5.5 | ×1.12 |  Manchester Cityv Brighton & Hove Albion · Carabao Cup |
| Leandro Rey Hilfer | 5.0 | ×1.12 |  River Platev Racing Club · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Andrea Colombo | 4.9 | ×1.10 |  Napoliv Roma · Serie A |
| Jérôme Brisard | 4.9 | ×1.10 |  Paris Saint Germainv Olympique Lyonnais · Ligue 1 |
| Mathieu Vernice | 4.9 | ×1.10 |  Lensv Paris · Ligue 1 |
| Lucas Casagrande | 4.8 | ×1.08 |  MirassolvSão Paulo · Serie A |
| Lucas Casagrande | 4.8 | ×1.08 | FluminensevInternacional · Serie A |
| Geoffrey Kubler | 4.8 | ×1.07 |  Toulousev Troyes · Ligue 1 |
| Mohammad Usman Aslam | 4.8 | ×1.07 |  Lillestrømv Brann · Eliteserien |
| Braulio da Silva Machado | 4.9 | ×1.07 | PalmeirasvBragantino · Serie A |
| Savio Pereira Sampaio | 4.7 | ×1.07 | SantosvBahia · Serie A |
| Lucas Guimarães Rechatiko Horn | 4.8 | ×1.07 |  Cearáv Goiás · Serie B |
| Andy Wolff | 6.0 | ×1.06 |  FC Den Boschv MVV Maastricht · Eerste Divisie |
How the Card Model Works
Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.
Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.
Using Card Stats for Betting
Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.
Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.