Card Statistics
Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.
Card Screener
Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price, with value against bet365 where the odds are in.
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171 matches · best line per match
| Line | Odds | L15 | Last 10 · home / away | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ref Bruno Mota Correia · 7.4 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 61%1.65 | +1% | 5.6ref +0.7 | 60%6/10 | 75%15/20 | 73%22/30 |   |
| Ref Tony Harrington · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.87 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 38%2.63 | – | 4.0ref −0.6 | 60%6/10 | 70%14/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref Gavin Ward · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.86 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.89 | – | 3.8ref −0.6 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 52%1.91 | – | 4.8 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 48%2.09 | – | 5.5 | 70%7/10 | 64%9/14 | 64%9/14 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 43%2.31 | – | 5.3 | 70%7/10 | 63%10/16 | 67%14/21 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 57%1.76 | – | 4.0 | 80%8/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.77 | – | 4.0 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.79 | – | 4.0 | 40%4/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.82 | – | 3.9 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 47%14/30 |   |
| Ref Anderson Daronco · 5.2 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.88 | – | 5.9ref +0.8 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 47%14/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.88 | – | 4.8 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 52%1.92 | – | 4.8 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref Flavio Rodrigues De Souza · 5.9 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 50%1.98 | – | 5.7ref +0.7 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 47%14/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.03 | – | 4.6 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 50%15/30 |   |
 Rosenborg HamKam | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 57%1.76 | – | 4.0 | 40%4/10 | 55%11/20 | 50%15/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.83 | – | 3.9 | 50%5/10 | 55%11/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.88 | – | 4.8 | 50%5/10 | 55%11/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 51%1.95 | – | 3.7 | 50%5/10 | 55%11/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 50%1.99 | – | 4.7 | 60%6/10 | 55%11/20 | 43%13/30 |   |
| Ref Farai Hallam · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.85 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 50%1.99 | – | 3.7ref −0.6 | 40%4/10 | 55%11/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 50%1.99 | – | 4.7 | 30%3/10 | 55%11/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 50%2.02 | – | 4.7 | 40%4/10 | 55%11/20 | 50%15/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.04 | – | 4.6 | 60%6/10 | 55%11/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 48%2.08 | – | 4.6 | 50%5/10 | 55%11/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 48%2.10 | – | 4.5 | 30%3/10 | 55%11/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 42%2.35 | – | 4.3 | 40%4/10 | 55%11/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 42%2.37 | – | 4.3 | 40%4/10 | 55%11/20 | 40%12/30 |   |
| Ref Michael Salisbury · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.94 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 40%2.48 | – | 4.2ref −0.3 | 50%5/10 | 55%11/20 | 43%13/30 |   |
| Ref Steve Janssen · 2.0 cards/match · ×0.95 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.86 | – | 3.9ref −0.2 | 63%5/8 | 54%7/13 | 50%9/18 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.82 | – | 3.9 | 40%4/10 | 50%10/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref Simon Hooper · 4.5 cards/match · ×1.03 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.83 | – | 3.9ref +0.1 | 60%6/10 | 50%10/20 | 50%15/30 |   |
| Ref Thomas Kirk · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.01 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.84 | – | 3.9 | 30%3/10 | 50%10/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.87 | – | 3.8 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 48%13/27 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.87 | – | 3.8 | 40%4/10 | 50%10/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.88 | – | 4.8 | 40%4/10 | 50%10/20 | 40%12/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.88 | – | 3.8 | 30%3/10 | 50%10/20 | 48%13/27 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 52%1.91 | – | 3.8 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 50%15/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 51%1.95 | – | 4.7 | 70%7/10 | 50%10/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 50%1.99 | – | 4.7 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 50%2.00 | – | 3.7 | 60%6/10 | 50%10/20 | 43%13/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 50%2.01 | – | 3.7 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref Lucas Casagrande · 4.9 cards/match · ×1.11 | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.03 | – | 5.6ref +0.5 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.05 | – | 4.6 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref Ingmar Oostrom · 2.9 cards/match · ×0.85 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 48%2.09 | – | 3.6ref −0.6 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima · 5.6 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 5.5 Match cards | 2.00 50% | 48%2.10 | -5% | 5.6ref +0.7 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 43%13/30 |   |
| Ref Raphael Claus · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.93 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 46%2.17 | – | 4.5ref −0.3 | 40%4/10 | 50%10/20 | 53%16/30 |  |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 46%2.17 | – | 4.5 | 60%6/10 | 50%10/20 | 50%15/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 46%2.19 | – | 4.4 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 47%14/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 43%2.31 | – | 4.3 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 47%14/30 |   |
- 1.66+1%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.6 · Model 61%L560%6/10L1075%15/20L1573%22/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 38%L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.8 · Model 53%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 52%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.5 · Model 48%L570%7/10L1064%9/14L1564%9/14
- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.3 · Model 43%L570%7/10L1063%10/16L1567%14/21
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 57%L580%8/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 56%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 56%L540%4/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.9 · Model 55%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1547%14/30
- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.9 · Model 53%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1547%14/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 53%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 52%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.7 · Model 50%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1547%14/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.6 · Model 49%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1550%15/30
- RosenborgHamKamWed 18:00Ref: not assigned yet––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 57%L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.9 · Model 55%L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 53%L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.7 · Model 51%L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.7 · Model 50%L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1543%13/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.7 · Model 50%L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.7 · Model 50%L530%3/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.7 · Model 50%L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.6 · Model 49%L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.6 · Model 48%L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.5 · Model 48%L530%3/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.3 · Model 42%L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.3 · Model 42%L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1540%12/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.2 · Model 40%L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1543%13/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.9 · Model 54%L563%5/8L1054%7/13L1550%9/18
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.9 · Model 55%L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.9 · Model 55%L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.9 · Model 54%L530%3/10L1050%10/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.8 · Model 53%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1548%13/27
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.8 · Model 53%L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 53%L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.8 · Model 53%L530%3/10L1050%10/20L1548%13/27
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.8 · Model 52%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.7 · Model 51%L570%7/10L1050%10/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.7 · Model 50%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.7 · Model 50%L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1543%13/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.7 · Model 50%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.6 · Model 49%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.6 · Model 49%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.6 · Model 48%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1563%19/30
Flamengo
Atlético MineiroTue 00:00 · Serie ARef Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima · 5.6 cards/match · ×1.152.00-5%Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.6 · Model 48%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1543%13/30- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.5 · Model 46%L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.5 · Model 46%L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.4 · Model 46%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.3 · Model 43%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 27 Oct, 01:17.
Referees this week — strictest first
| Referee | Cards / match | Effect | Next match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson Daronco | 5.2 | ×1.15 | BahiavSão Paulo · Serie A |
| Darío Herrera | 6.2 | ×1.15 |  Argentinos Juniorsv Independiente Rivadavia · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Flavio Rodrigues De Souza | 5.9 | ×1.15 | SantosvPalmeiras · Serie A |
| Bruno Arleu de Araujo | 5.6 | ×1.15 |  Vasco da GamavFlamengo · Serie A |
| Alex Gomes Stefano | 5.6 | ×1.15 |  Grêmiov Athletico PR · Serie A |
| Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes | 5.4 | ×1.15 |  Bragantinov Chapecoense · Serie A |
| Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima | 5.6 | ×1.15 | FlamengovAtlético Mineiro · Serie A |
| Lucas Paulo Torezin | 5.7 | ×1.15 |  Remov Botafogo · Serie A |
| Carlos Andrés Gariano | 5.7 | ×1.15 |  Institutov Deportivo Riestra · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Bruno Mota Correia | 7.4 | ×1.15 | JuventudevNáutico · Serie B |
| Andy Madley | 5.5 | ×1.12 |  Manchester Cityv Brighton & Hove Albion · Carabao Cup |
| Matheus Delgado Candançan | 4.9 | ×1.12 |  Corinthiansv Mirassol · Serie A |
| Lucas Casagrande | 4.9 | ×1.11 | FluminensevInternacional · Serie A |
| Lucas Guimarães Rechatiko Horn | 4.7 | ×1.05 |  Cearáv Goiás · Serie B |
| Leigh Doughty | 4.5 | ×1.04 |  Leicester Cityv Wigan Athletic · League One |
| Simon Hooper | 4.5 | ×1.03 | FulhamvCrystal Palace · Carabao Cup |
| Martijn Vos | 4.5 | ×1.03 |  Helmond Sportv Willem II · KNVB Beker |
| Scott Jackson | 4.4 | ×1.02 |  Milton Keynes Donsv Bromley · League One |
| Thomas Kirk | 4.3 | ×1.01 | Bradford CityvPeterborough United · Carabao Cup |
| Darren England | 4.3 | ×1.01 |  Liverpoolv Chelsea · Carabao Cup |
| Ben Toner | 4.3 | ×1.00 |  Barnetv York City · League Two |
| Steve Janssen | 2.0 | ×0.95 | GenemuidenvFC Dordrecht · KNVB Beker |
| Michael Salisbury | 4.0 | ×0.94 | Fleetwood TownvArsenal · Carabao Cup |
| Sander van der Eijk | 4.0 | ×0.94 |  Sparta Rotterdamv Fortuna Sittard · KNVB Beker |
| Raphael Claus | 4.0 | ×0.93 | Atlético MineirovCruzeiro · Serie A |
| Jannick van der Laan | 3.8 | ×0.91 |  Telstarv Almere City · KNVB Beker |
| Stan Teuben | 3.8 | ×0.91 |  Roda JC Kerkradev De Graafschap · KNVB Beker |
| Rick Sturm | 3.7 | ×0.90 |  De Treffersv Heracles Almelo · KNVB Beker |
| Stephen Parkinson | 3.7 | ×0.89 |  Oxford Unitedv Stockport County · League One |
| Laurens Gerrets | 3.6 | ×0.87 |  FC Eindhovenv FC Volendam · KNVB Beker |
| Richard Martens | 3.6 | ×0.87 |  PEC Zwollev TOP Oss · KNVB Beker |
| Tony Harrington | 3.5 | ×0.87 | AFC BournemouthvAston Villa · Carabao Cup |
| Alex Bos | 3.5 | ×0.87 |  MVV Maastrichtv Excelsior · KNVB Beker |
| Gavin Ward | 3.5 | ×0.86 | SunderlandvBrentford · Carabao Cup |
| Farai Hallam | 3.5 | ×0.85 | EvertonvNewcastle United · Carabao Cup |
| Erwin Blank | 3.2 | ×0.85 |  FC Groningenv FC Emmen · KNVB Beker |
| Ingmar Oostrom | 2.9 | ×0.85 | VVV-VenlovVitesse · KNVB Beker |
| Dean Whitestone | 3.4 | ×0.85 |  Sheffield Wednesdayv Cambridge United · League One |
| Matthew Russell | 2.6 | ×0.85 |  Luton Townv Doncaster Rovers · League One |
How the Card Model Works
Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.
Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.
Using Card Stats for Betting
Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.
Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.