Card Statistics

Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.

Card Screener

Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price, with value against bet365 where the odds are in.

Smart views

157 matches · best line per match

Upcoming matches with recent cards hit rates and model value
	Line	Odds						L15
JuventudeNáutico Tue 00:30 · Serie BRef Bruno Mota Correia · 7.4 cards/match · ×1.15	Over 4.5 Match cards	1.66 60%	60%1.65	0%	5.5ref +0.7	60%6/10	75%15/20	73%22/30
FC AndorraBurgos Mon 20:30 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	40%2.49	–	5.1	60%6/10	70%14/20	70%21/30
AFC BournemouthAston Villa Wed 20:45 · Carabao CupRef Tony Harrington · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.87	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	38%2.63	–	4.0ref −0.6	60%6/10	70%14/20	53%16/30
SunderlandBrentford Wed 20:45 · Carabao CupRef Gavin Ward · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.86	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	53%1.89	–	3.8ref −0.6	60%6/10	65%13/20	60%18/30
Raja CasablancaHassania Agadir Wed 19:00 · Botola ProRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	52%1.92	–	4.8	60%6/10	65%13/20	63%19/30
Benfica U19Pafos U19 Wed 17:00 · UEFA Youth LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	48%2.10	–	5.5	70%7/10	64%9/14	64%9/14
Al JaziraMuharraq Wed 17:00 · AFC Champions League TwoRef: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	43%2.33	–	5.3	70%7/10	63%10/16	67%14/21
River PlateRacing Club Sun 23:15 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef Leandro Rey Hilfer · 5.0 cards/match · ×1.13	Over 4.5 Match cards	1.61 62%	63%1.60	+1%	5.7ref +0.7	60%6/10	60%12/20	63%19/30
SC FreiburgVfL Wolfsburg Wed 18:00 · DFB PokalRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	57%1.77	–	4.0	70%7/10	60%12/20	60%18/30
Bayer 04 LeverkusenNürnberg Wed 20:45 · DFB PokalRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	56%1.77	–	4.0	80%8/10	60%12/20	53%16/30
Halifax TownBarrow Tue 20:45 · Enterprise National LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	56%1.79	–	4.0	40%4/10	60%12/20	53%16/30
Holstein KielTSG Hoffenheim Wed 20:45 · DFB PokalRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	53%1.89	–	4.8	60%6/10	60%12/20	63%19/30
WealdstoneSolihull Moors Tue 20:45 · Enterprise National LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	57%1.76	–	4.0	50%5/10	55%11/20	67%20/30
RosenborgHamKam Wed 18:00Ref: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	57%1.77	–	4.0	40%4/10	55%11/20	50%15/30
AIKElfsborg Tue 19:00 · AllsvenskanRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.83	–	3.9	50%5/10	55%11/20	60%18/30
FC BarcelonaReal Madrid Sun 21:00 · La LigaRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	54%1.84	–	3.9	60%6/10	55%11/20	53%16/30
FC Bayern MünchenMagdeburg Wed 20:45 · DFB PokalRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	51%1.95	–	3.7	50%5/10	55%11/20	53%16/30
Spartak MoskvaRubin Kazan Wed 18:30 · Russian CupRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	50%2.00	–	4.7	60%6/10	55%11/20	43%13/30
QuerétaroCruz Azul Mon 02:00 · Liga MXRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	50%2.00	–	4.7	50%5/10	55%11/20	57%17/30
Al Shamal SCAl Hilal Tue 19:15 · AFC Champions League EliteRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	49%2.02	–	4.6	40%4/10	55%11/20	50%15/30
Unión Santa FeEstudiantes Mon 23:00 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef Pablo Dóvalo · 5.2 cards/match · ×1.15	Over 5.5 Match cards	2.20 45%	49%2.03	+8%	6.0ref +0.8	40%4/10	55%11/20	57%17/30
Lokomotiv PlovdivSlavia Sofia Mon 16:00 · First LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	45%2.21	–	4.4	70%7/10	55%11/20	47%14/30
Fleetwood TownArsenal Tue 21:00 · Carabao CupRef Michael Salisbury · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.94	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	40%2.48	–	4.2ref −0.2	50%5/10	55%11/20	43%13/30
GenemuidenFC Dordrecht Wed 20:00 · KNVB BekerRef Steve Janssen · 2.0 cards/match · ×0.95	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	54%1.87	–	3.8ref −0.2	63%5/8	54%7/13	50%9/18
Mardin BBManisa FK Mon 18:00 · 1. LigRef Hakan Ülker · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.03	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	42%2.39	–	5.2ref +0.1	63%5/8	54%7/13	50%9/18
Barracas CentralEstudiantes de Río Cuarto Mon 01:30 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef Andrés Merlos · 5.8 cards/match · ×1.15	Over 4.5 Match cards	1.83 55%	58%1.73	+6%	5.6ref +0.7	60%6/10	50%10/20	53%16/30
Al-QadsiahAl Sadd Mon 19:15 · AFC Champions League EliteRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.81	–	3.9	40%4/10	50%10/20	47%14/30
Central Cordoba SdEVélez Sarsfield Mon 01:30 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef Pablo Echavarría · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.06	Over 4.5 Match cards	1.90 53%	55%1.82	+4%	5.3ref +0.3	80%8/10	50%10/20	50%15/30
OuluVPS Wed 17:00 · VeikkausliigaRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.82	–	3.9	40%4/10	50%10/20	53%16/30
FulhamCrystal Palace Wed 20:45 · Carabao CupRef Simon Hooper · 4.5 cards/match · ×1.03	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.83	–	3.9ref +0.1	60%6/10	50%10/20	50%15/30
Bradford CityPeterborough United Tue 20:45 · Carabao CupRef Thomas Kirk · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.01	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	54%1.84	–	3.9	30%3/10	50%10/20	60%18/30
Kashima AntlersPohang Steelers Wed 11:00 · AFC Champions League EliteRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	53%1.88	–	3.8	50%5/10	50%10/20	48%13/27
MontpellierRed Star Mon 20:45 · Ligue 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	53%1.88	–	3.8	50%5/10	50%10/20	50%15/30
CesenaEmpoli Tue 20:00 · Serie BRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	53%1.88	–	3.8	40%4/10	50%10/20	57%17/30
Kyoto SangaNewcastle Jets Tue 11:00 · AFC Champions League EliteRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	53%1.89	–	3.8	30%3/10	50%10/20	48%13/27
América MineiroCuiabá Mon 23:30 · Serie BRef Jodis Nascimento de Souza · 6.3 cards/match · ×1.13	Over 4.5 Match cards	1.83 55%	52%1.92	-5%	4.9ref +0.6	50%5/10	50%10/20	57%17/30
Dinamo ZagrebRijeka Tue 18:00 · 1. HNLRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	52%1.92	–	3.8	50%5/10	50%10/20	50%15/30
CoritibaGrêmio Mon 23:30 · Serie ARef Ramon Abatti · 5.2 cards/match · ×1.15	Over 5.5 Match cards	1.72 58%	52%1.92	-11%	5.7ref +0.7	50%5/10	50%10/20	50%15/30
FAR RabatIttihad Tanger Wed 21:00 · Botola ProRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	51%1.96	–	4.7	70%7/10	50%10/20	57%17/30
SevillaOsasuna Mon 21:00 · La LigaRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	51%1.98	–	4.7	60%6/10	50%10/20	40%12/30
Thể Công-ViettelSeoul Wed 13:15 · AFC Champions League TwoRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	50%2.00	–	4.7	50%5/10	50%10/20	57%17/30
HalmstadMalmö FF Wed 19:00 · AllsvenskanRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	50%2.02	–	3.6	50%5/10	50%10/20	53%16/30
MantovaCremonese Tue 20:00 · Serie BRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	49%2.06	–	4.6	50%5/10	50%10/20	53%16/30
VVV-VenloVitesse Wed 20:00 · KNVB BekerRef Ingmar Oostrom · 2.9 cards/match · ×0.85	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	48%2.10	–	3.6ref −0.6	50%5/10	50%10/20	63%19/30
FlamengoAtlético Mineiro Tue 00:00 · Serie ARef Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima · 5.6 cards/match · ×1.15	Over 5.5 Match cards	2.00 50%	48%2.10	-5%	5.6ref +0.7	50%5/10	50%10/20	43%13/30
IndependienteBoca Juniors Sun 21:00 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef Nazareno Arasa · 5.7 cards/match · ×1.15	Over 5.5 Match cards	2.20 45%	47%2.12	+4%	5.8ref +0.8	50%5/10	50%10/20	47%14/30
Juve StabiaHellas Verona Wed 20:00 · Serie BRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	46%2.18	–	4.5	60%6/10	50%10/20	50%15/30
Sutton UnitedAldershot Town Wed 20:45 · Enterprise National LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	46%2.20	–	4.4	50%5/10	50%10/20	47%14/30
BarnetYork City Tue 20:45 · League TwoRef Ben Toner · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.01	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	40%2.48	–	4.2	50%5/10	50%10/20	47%14/30
ArdaLevski Sofia Tue 18:30 · First LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	38%2.61	–	4.1	50%5/10	50%10/20	43%13/30

JuventudeNáutico
Tue 00:30 · Serie B
Ref Bruno Mota Correia · 7.4 cards/match · ×1.15
1.66
0%
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.5 · Model 60%
L560%6/10L1075%15/20L1573%22/30
FC AndorraBurgos
Mon 20:30 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.1 · Model 40%
L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1570%21/30
AFC BournemouthAston Villa
Wed 20:45 · Carabao Cup
Ref Tony Harrington · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.87
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 38%
L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1553%16/30
SunderlandBrentford
Wed 20:45 · Carabao Cup
Ref Gavin Ward · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.86
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
Raja CasablancaHassania Agadir
Wed 19:00 · Botola Pro
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 52%
L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
Benfica U19Pafos U19
Wed 17:00 · UEFA Youth League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.5 · Model 48%
L570%7/10L1064%9/14L1564%9/14
Al JaziraMuharraq
Wed 17:00 · AFC Champions League Two
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.3 · Model 43%
L570%7/10L1063%10/16L1567%14/21
River PlateRacing Club
Sun 23:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Ref Leandro Rey Hilfer · 5.0 cards/match · ×1.13
1.61
+1%
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.7 · Model 63%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
SC FreiburgVfL Wolfsburg
Wed 18:00 · DFB Pokal
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 57%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
Bayer 04 LeverkusenNürnberg
Wed 20:45 · DFB Pokal
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L580%8/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
Halifax TownBarrow
Tue 20:45 · Enterprise National League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L540%4/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
Holstein KielTSG Hoffenheim
Wed 20:45 · DFB Pokal
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 53%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
WealdstoneSolihull Moors
Tue 20:45 · Enterprise National League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 57%
L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1567%20/30
RosenborgHamKam
Wed 18:00
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 57%
L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
AIKElfsborg
Tue 19:00 · Allsvenskan
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1560%18/30
FC BarcelonaReal Madrid
Sun 21:00 · La Liga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 54%
L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30
FC Bayern MünchenMagdeburg
Wed 20:45 · DFB Pokal
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.7 · Model 51%
L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30
Spartak MoskvaRubin Kazan
Wed 18:30 · Russian Cup
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 50%
L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1543%13/30
QuerétaroCruz Azul
Mon 02:00 · Liga MX
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 50%
L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
Al Shamal SCAl Hilal
Tue 19:15 · AFC Champions League Elite
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.6 · Model 49%
L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
Unión Santa FeEstudiantes
Mon 23:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Ref Pablo Dóvalo · 5.2 cards/match · ×1.15
2.20
+8%
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 6.0 · Model 49%
L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
Lokomotiv PlovdivSlavia Sofia
Mon 16:00 · First League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.4 · Model 45%
L570%7/10L1055%11/20L1547%14/30
Fleetwood TownArsenal
Tue 21:00 · Carabao Cup
Ref Michael Salisbury · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.94
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.2 · Model 40%
L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1543%13/30
GenemuidenFC Dordrecht
Wed 20:00 · KNVB Beker
Ref Steve Janssen · 2.0 cards/match · ×0.95
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 54%
L563%5/8L1054%7/13L1550%9/18
Mardin BBManisa FK
Mon 18:00 · 1. Lig
Ref Hakan Ülker · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.03
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.2 · Model 42%
L563%5/8L1054%7/13L1550%9/18
Barracas CentralEstudiantes de Río Cuarto
Mon 01:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Ref Andrés Merlos · 5.8 cards/match · ×1.15
1.83
+6%
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.6 · Model 58%
L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
Al-QadsiahAl Sadd
Mon 19:15 · AFC Champions League Elite
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
Central Cordoba SdEVélez Sarsfield
Mon 01:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Ref Pablo Echavarría · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.06
1.90
+4%
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.3 · Model 55%
L580%8/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
OuluVPS
Wed 17:00 · Veikkausliiga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
FulhamCrystal Palace
Wed 20:45 · Carabao Cup
Ref Simon Hooper · 4.5 cards/match · ×1.03
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
Bradford CityPeterborough United
Tue 20:45 · Carabao Cup
Ref Thomas Kirk · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.01
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 54%
L530%3/10L1050%10/20L1560%18/30
Kashima AntlersPohang Steelers
Wed 11:00 · AFC Champions League Elite
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1548%13/27
MontpellierRed Star
Mon 20:45 · Ligue 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
CesenaEmpoli
Tue 20:00 · Serie B
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1557%17/30
Kyoto SangaNewcastle Jets
Tue 11:00 · AFC Champions League Elite
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
L530%3/10L1050%10/20L1548%13/27
América MineiroCuiabá
Mon 23:30 · Serie B
Ref Jodis Nascimento de Souza · 6.3 cards/match · ×1.13
1.83
-5%
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.9 · Model 52%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1557%17/30
Dinamo ZagrebRijeka
Tue 18:00 · 1. HNL
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 52%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
CoritibaGrêmio
Mon 23:30 · Serie A
Ref Ramon Abatti · 5.2 cards/match · ×1.15
1.72
-11%
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.7 · Model 52%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
FAR RabatIttihad Tanger
Wed 21:00 · Botola Pro
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
L570%7/10L1050%10/20L1557%17/30
SevillaOsasuna
Mon 21:00 · La Liga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
Thể Công-ViettelSeoul
Wed 13:15 · AFC Champions League Two
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 50%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1557%17/30
HalmstadMalmö FF
Wed 19:00 · Allsvenskan
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.6 · Model 50%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
MantovaCremonese
Tue 20:00 · Serie B
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.6 · Model 49%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
VVV-VenloVitesse
Wed 20:00 · KNVB Beker
Ref Ingmar Oostrom · 2.9 cards/match · ×0.85
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.6 · Model 48%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1563%19/30
FlamengoAtlético Mineiro
Tue 00:00 · Serie A
Ref Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima · 5.6 cards/match · ×1.15
2.00
-5%
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.6 · Model 48%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1543%13/30
IndependienteBoca Juniors
Sun 21:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Ref Nazareno Arasa · 5.7 cards/match · ×1.15
2.20
+4%
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.8 · Model 47%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
Juve StabiaHellas Verona
Wed 20:00 · Serie B
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.5 · Model 46%
L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
Sutton UnitedAldershot Town
Wed 20:45 · Enterprise National League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.4 · Model 46%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
BarnetYork City
Tue 20:45 · League Two
Ref Ben Toner · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.01
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.2 · Model 40%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
ArdaLevski Sofia
Tue 18:30 · First League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.1 · Model 38%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1543%13/30

Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 25 Oct, 21:17.

Referees this week — strictest first

Referee	Matches	Cards / match	Effect	Next match	Exp. cards
Anderson Daronco	57	5.2	×1.15	BahiavSão PauloThu 01:30 · Serie A	5.1 → 5.8
Darío Herrera	47	6.2	×1.15	Argentinos JuniorsvIndependiente RivadaviaTue 23:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.1 → 5.9
Flavio Rodrigues De Souza	45	5.9	×1.15	SantosvPalmeirasWed 23:30 · Serie A	4.9 → 5.7
Halil Umut Meler	43	5.7	×1.15	RizesporvTrabzonsporMon 17:00 · Super Lig	4.5 → 5.2
Bruno Arleu de Araujo	43	5.6	×1.15	Vasco da GamavFlamengoFri 00:00 · Serie A	5.0 → 5.8
Gustavo Tejera	42	5.1	×1.15	NacionalvLiverpoolSun 23:30 · Primera Division	5.7 → 6.6
Ramon Abatti	41	5.2	×1.15	CoritibavGrêmioMon 23:30 · Serie A	4.9 → 5.7
Alex Gomes Stefano	38	5.6	×1.15	GrêmiovAthletico PRFri 01:30 · Serie A	5.4 → 6.2
Hernán Heras	37	6.6	×1.15	Cerro LargovBoston RiverSun 20:00 · Primera Division	5.0 → 5.8
Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes	36	5.4	×1.15	BragantinovChapecoenseWed 23:30 · Serie A	4.5 → 5.2
Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima	35	5.6	×1.15	FlamengovAtlético MineiroTue 00:00 · Serie A	4.9 → 5.6
Lucas Paulo Torezin	35	5.7	×1.15	RemovBotafogoThu 01:30 · Serie A	4.6 → 5.3
Nazareno Arasa	34	5.7	×1.15	IndependientevBoca JuniorsSun 21:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.0 → 5.8
Carlos Andrés Gariano	33	5.7	×1.15	InstitutovDeportivo RiestraTue 01:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.8 → 5.5
Andrés Merlos	32	5.8	×1.15	Barracas CentralvEstudiantes de Río CuartoMon 01:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.8 → 5.6
Atilla Karaoğlan	32	5.8	×1.15	GalatasarayvFenerbahçeMon 19:30 · Super Lig	4.4 → 5.0
Pablo Dóvalo	27	5.2	×1.15	Unión Santa FevEstudiantesMon 23:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.3 → 6.0
Ümit Öztürk	14	5.6	×1.15	Beşiktaşvİstanbul BaşakşehirMon 17:00 · Super Lig	4.5 → 5.2
Bruno Mota Correia	5	7.4	×1.15	JuventudevNáuticoTue 00:30 · Serie B	4.8 → 5.5
Patrik Kolarić	26	5.1	×1.14	Istra 1961vHajduk SplitMon 18:00 · 1. HNL	4.0 → 4.6
Leandro Rey Hilfer	41	5.0	×1.13	River PlatevRacing ClubSun 23:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.0 → 5.7
Jodis Nascimento de Souza	4	6.3	×1.13	América MineirovCuiabáMon 23:30 · Serie B	4.3 → 4.9
Andy Madley	8	5.5	×1.13	Manchester CityvBrighton & Hove AlbionWed 20:30 · Carabao Cup	3.6 → 4.0
Matheus Delgado Candançan	36	4.9	×1.12	CorinthiansvMirassolSat 00:00 · Serie A	4.9 → 5.5
Jérôme Brisard	31	4.9	×1.11	Paris Saint GermainvOlympique LyonnaisSun 20:45 · Ligue 1	3.7 → 4.1
Miguel Bertolo Nogueira	22	5.0	×1.11	Sporting CPvAcademico ViseuSun 21:30 · Liga Portugal	4.5 → 5.1
Lucas Casagrande	37	4.9	×1.11	FluminensevInternacionalWed 23:30 · Serie A	5.1 → 5.6
Cláudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira	8	5.3	×1.10	Santa ClaravBenficaMon 19:45 · Liga Portugal	5.2 → 5.7
Pablo Echavarría	27	4.6	×1.06	Central Cordoba SdEvVélez SarsfieldMon 01:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.0 → 5.3
Lucas Guimarães Rechatiko Horn	14	4.7	×1.06	CearávGoiásWed 00:00 · Serie B	4.5 → 4.7
Leigh Doughty	27	4.5	×1.04	Leicester CityvWigan AthleticTue 20:45 · League One	4.1 → 4.3
Simon Hooper	22	4.5	×1.03	FulhamvCrystal PalaceWed 20:45 · Carabao Cup	3.8 → 3.9
Matteo Marcenaro	32	4.5	×1.03	UdinesevAC MilanSun 20:45 · Serie A	3.7 → 3.8
Martijn Vos	28	4.5	×1.03	Helmond SportvWillem IITue 20:00 · KNVB Beker	3.8 → 3.9
Hakan Ülker	9	4.6	×1.03	Mardin BBvManisa FKMon 18:00 · 1. Lig	5.0 → 5.2
Scott Jackson	22	4.4	×1.02	Milton Keynes DonsvBromleyTue 20:45 · League One	4.0 → 4.1
Thomas Kirk	41	4.3	×1.01	Bradford CityvPeterborough UnitedTue 20:45 · Carabao Cup	3.9 → 3.9
Darren England	38	4.3	×1.01	LiverpoolvChelseaWed 21:00 · Carabao Cup	4.5 → 4.6
Ben Toner	30	4.3	×1.01	BarnetvYork CityTue 20:45 · League Two	4.1 → 4.2
Steve Janssen	1	2.0	×0.95	GenemuidenvFC DordrechtWed 20:00 · KNVB Beker	4.0 → 3.8

How the Card Model Works

Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.

Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.

Using Card Stats for Betting

Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.

Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.