Match Result Screener

Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and how it compares with the price.

Match Result Screener

Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the Pinnacle price where the match is priced.

Smart views

474 matches · line closest to even per match

Upcoming matches with recent results hit rates, model chances and prices
	Line	Odds						L15
Adelaide United WWellington Phoenix W Fri 09:00 · A-League Women	Wellington Phoenix W 1X2	1.98 51%	44%2.26	-12%	1.4–1.3	40%4/10	40%8/20	40%12/30
SydneyCentral Coast Mariners Fri 09:40 · A-League Men	Sydney 1X2	1.54 65%	58%1.74	-11%	1.5–1.1	30%3/10	35%7/20	27%8/30
Lokomotiv Moskva U19Spartak Moskva U19 Fri 11:00 · Youth League	Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1X2	–	47%2.13	–	2.0–1.6	50%5/10	50%10/20	50%15/30
Nizhny Novgorod U19Rubin Kazan U19 Fri 11:00 · Youth League	Nizhny Novgorod U19 1X2	–	42%2.39	–	1.8–1.6	50%5/10	50%10/20	50%15/30
Chertanovo U19Rostov U19 Fri 11:00 · Youth League	Chertanovo U19 1X2	–	41%2.44	–	1.8–1.6	60%6/10	40%8/20	37%11/30
Polissya ZhytomyrVeres Fri 12:00 · Premier League	Polissya Zhytomyr 1X2	1.22 82%	72%1.39	-12%	1.9–0.9	80%8/10	65%13/20	60%18/30
Trường Tươi Đồng Nailimited dataSHB Đà Nẵng Fri 12:00 · V-League	SHB Đà Nẵng 1X2	–	40%2.51	–	1.3–1.5	60%6/10	60%9/15	45%9/20
Rodina Moskva U19Akademiya Konoplev U20 Fri 12:00 · Youth League	Rodina Moskva U19 1X2	–	50%1.99	–	2.2–1.7	50%5/10	50%10/20	50%15/30
Obolon'-BrovarLivyi Bereh Fri 12:00 · Premier League	Livyi Bereh 1X2	2.28 44%	40%2.53	-10%	1.1–1.2	40%4/10	35%7/20	35%9/26
Hồng Lĩnh Hà TĩnhThép Xanh Nam Định Fri 12:00 · V-League	Thép Xanh Nam Định 1X2	–	38%2.66	–	1.3–1.4	40%4/10	35%7/20	43%13/30

Adelaide United WWellington Phoenix W
Fri 09:00 · A-League Women
1.98
-12%
Wellington Phoenix W 1X2
xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 44%
L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1540%12/30
SydneyCentral Coast Mariners
Fri 09:40 · A-League Men
1.54
-11%
Sydney 1X2
xG 1.5–1.1 · Model 58%
L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1527%8/30
Lokomotiv Moskva U19Spartak Moskva U19
Fri 11:00 · Youth League
–
–
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1X2
xG 2.0–1.6 · Model 47%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
Nizhny Novgorod U19Rubin Kazan U19
Fri 11:00 · Youth League
–
–
Nizhny Novgorod U19 1X2
xG 1.8–1.6 · Model 42%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
Chertanovo U19Rostov U19
Fri 11:00 · Youth League
–
–
Chertanovo U19 1X2
xG 1.8–1.6 · Model 41%
L560%6/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
Polissya ZhytomyrVeres
Fri 12:00 · Premier League
1.22
-12%
Polissya Zhytomyr 1X2
xG 1.9–0.9 · Model 72%
L580%8/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
Trường Tươi Đồng Nailimited dataSHB Đà Nẵng
Fri 12:00 · V-League
–
–
SHB Đà Nẵng 1X2
xG 1.3–1.5 · Model 40%
L560%6/10L1060%9/15L1545%9/20
Rodina Moskva U19Akademiya Konoplev U20
Fri 12:00 · Youth League
–
–
Rodina Moskva U19 1X2
xG 2.2–1.7 · Model 50%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
Obolon'-BrovarLivyi Bereh
Fri 12:00 · Premier League
2.28
-10%
Livyi Bereh 1X2
xG 1.1–1.2 · Model 40%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1535%9/26
Hồng Lĩnh Hà TĩnhThép Xanh Nam Định
Fri 12:00 · V-League
–
–
Thép Xanh Nam Định 1X2
xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 38%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1543%13/30

Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1: the model's view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 6 Nov, 05:18.

Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)

League	Matches	Home	Draw	Away	Goals
1. HNL	179	48%	24%	27.9%	2.8
1. Lig	391	43.5%	23.8%	32.7%	2.9
2. Bundesliga	297	46.1%	26.9%	26.9%	2.97
A-League Men	162	37%	28.4%	34.6%	2.83
A-League Women	127	44.1%	19.7%	36.2%	2.71
Admiral Bundesliga	189	47.6%	25.4%	27%	2.86
AFC Champions League Elite	134	45.5%	25.4%	29.1%	2.86
AFC Champions League Two	127	52%	16.5%	31.5%	2.8
Africa Cup of Nations	52	46.2%	25%	28.8%	2.33
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications	60	50%	21.7%	28.3%	2.53
Allsvenskan	223	41.3%	22.9%	35.9%	2.84
Botola Pro	221	35.7%	33.5%	30.8%	2.21
Brasileiro Women	167	42.5%	26.3%	31.1%	2.6
Bundesliga	297	45.5%	25.3%	29.3%	3.32
CAF Champions League	151	51%	29.1%	19.9%	2.06
Carabao Cup	93	40.9%	18.3%	40.9%	3.04
Challenger Pro League	244	45.1%	21.3%	33.6%	2.93
Champions League	279	52%	16.1%	31.9%	3.46
Championship	558	42.5%	25.8%	31.7%	2.73
Chance Liga	267	44.6%	20.6%	34.8%	2.75
CONCACAF Nations League	74	45.9%	10.8%	43.2%	3.38
Copa Del Rey	119	26.9%	10.9%	62.2%	3.23
Copa do Brasil	158	44.9%	30.4%	24.7%	2.11
Copa Libertadores	154	44.8%	26.6%	28.6%	2.1
Copa Sudamericana	157	44.6%	31.8%	23.6%	2.29
Coppa Italia	45	60%	24.4%	15.6%	3
Coupe de France	204	23%	26.5%	50.5%	3.13
DFB Pokal	63	27%	11.1%	61.9%	3.95
Eerste Divisie	372	44.6%	21%	34.4%	3.31
Ekstraklasa	300	45%	25.7%	29.3%	2.77
Eliteserien	224	50.4%	18.3%	31.3%	3.27
Enterprise National League	547	45.2%	20.1%	34.7%	3.06
Eredivisie	308	39.9%	28.2%	31.8%	3.3
Europa Conference League	429	47.3%	24%	28.7%	2.81
Europa League	287	48.8%	18.8%	32.4%	2.82
FA Cup	827	43.8%	18.5%	37.7%	3.31
First Division	180	37.2%	31.7%	31.1%	2.77
First League	273	44%	24.9%	31.1%	2.39
FNL	288	40.3%	28.1%	31.6%	2.52
Indian Super League	116	37.9%	31.9%	30.2%	2.49
J1 League	160	46.3%	21.9%	31.9%	2.91
K League 1	222	32%	33.8%	34.2%	2.44
KNVB Beker	109	40.4%	11%	48.6%	4.01
La Liga	379	48.3%	24.3%	27.4%	2.79
La Liga 2	468	45.3%	23.5%	31.2%	2.7
League One	551	44.3%	27.2%	28.5%	2.73
League Two	553	43.4%	27.5%	29.1%	2.59
Liga MX	326	43.6%	25.8%	30.7%	2.86
Liga Portugal	306	42.2%	26.1%	31.7%	2.69
Liga Profesional de Fútbol	527	41.7%	29.2%	29%	2.14
Ligat ha'Al	240	40.8%	24.6%	34.6%	2.95
Ligue 1	287	44.9%	24.4%	30.7%	2.85
Ligue 1	181	32%	28.2%	39.8%	2.06
Ligue 2	289	37.4%	30.8%	31.8%	2.58
Major League Soccer	506	46%	25.9%	28.1%	3.27
Persian Gulf Pro League	194	40.7%	35.1%	24.2%	1.85
Premier League	232	42.2%	28%	29.7%	2.56
Premier League	370	39.7%	29.2%	31.1%	2.76
Premier League	232	40.9%	26.3%	32.8%	2.52
Premier League	275	36%	33.5%	30.5%	2.18
Premier League	220	34.5%	35.9%	29.5%	2.13
Premiership	234	46.2%	23.5%	30.3%	2.81
Primera Division	292	41.4%	25.7%	32.9%	2.37
Pro League	347	43.8%	23.6%	32.6%	3
Pro League	299	42.5%	22.7%	34.8%	2.88
Russian Cup	144	40.3%	29.2%	30.6%	2.66
Serie A	404	49%	27%	24%	2.73
Serie A	380	41.6%	21.6%	36.8%	2.67
Serie B	391	45.3%	27.4%	27.4%	2.33
Serie B	381	43.8%	29.4%	26.8%	2.57
Stars League	132	36.4%	23.5%	40.2%	3.45
Super League	236	42.8%	27.5%	29.7%	2.57
Super League	222	40.1%	24.8%	35.1%	3.4
Super League	240	43.3%	26.7%	30%	3.15
Super Lig	297	45.5%	25.9%	28.6%	2.8
Superliga	187	41.7%	27.3%	31%	3.03
Superliga	309	50.2%	23.6%	26.2%	2.58
Taça De Portugal	146	44.5%	10.3%	45.2%	3.06
UAE Pro League	175	37.1%	25.7%	37.1%	3.06
UEFA Nations League	108	38%	25.9%	36.1%	2.44
UEFA Women's Champions League	162	50%	19.1%	30.9%	3.63
UEFA Youth League	216	50%	18.1%	31.9%	3.81
V-League	150	43.3%	22.7%	34%	2.71
Veikkausliiga	177	45.2%	26.6%	28.2%	2.57
WC Qualification Europe	60	46.7%	20%	33.3%	3.45
Women's Super League	147	44.9%	20.4%	34.7%	3.11
World Cup	104	48.1%	23.1%	28.8%	2.96
World Cup Women Qualification Europe	101	46.5%	13.9%	39.6%	3.45
Youth League	236	50%	15.7%	34.3%	3.81

How the Match Result Screener Works

Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the model EV is a small tilt on the price rather than a guess against it — and still the model's view, not a proven betting edge.

Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing an EV: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.

Using It With Other Stats

Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.

Match Result Screener