Match Result Screener

Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and how it compares with the price.

Match Result Screener

Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the Pinnacle price where the match is priced.

Smart views

454 matches · line closest to even per match

Upcoming matches with recent results hit rates, model chances and prices
	Line	Odds						L15
Al HazmAl Nassr Fri 15:55 · Pro League	Al Nassr 1X2	1.18 85%	68%1.47	-19%	1.5–1.9	80%8/10	60%12/20	63%19/30
Dinamo Makhachkala U19Almaz-Antey U19 Fri 16:00 · Youth League	Almaz-Antey U19 1X2	–	41%2.46	–	1.8–1.9	60%6/10	55%11/20	60%18/30
Septemvri SofiaLokomotiv Sofia 1929 Fri 16:00 · First League	Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 1X2	2.19 46%	40%2.48	-12%	1.6–1.4	60%6/10	40%8/20	37%11/30
UTA AradPetrolul 52 Fri 16:30 · Superliga	UTA Arad 1X2	1.96 51%	46%2.16	-9%	1.5–1.3	40%4/10	35%7/20	37%11/30
Al WakrahAl Shahaniya Fri 17:30 · Stars League	Al Wakrah 1X2	1.65 61%	56%1.78	-7%	2.1–1.4	60%6/10	45%9/20	43%13/30
Lokomotiv MoskvaRubin Kazan Fri 17:30 · Premier League	Lokomotiv Moskva 1X2	2.13 47%	45%2.24	-5%	1.5–1.2	40%4/10	35%7/20	23%7/30
Zenit U19Fakel U19 Fri 18:00 · Youth League	Zenit U19 1X2	–	64%1.56	–	2.4–1.2	80%8/10	65%13/20	63%19/30
AntalyasporBursaspor Fri 18:00 · 1. Lig	Bursaspor 1X2	1.70 59%	52%1.93	-12%	1.4–1.6	60%6/10	60%12/20	61%17/28
Sarıyer SKIğdır FK Fri 18:00 · 1. Lig	Iğdır FK 1X2	2.76 36%	35%2.82	-2%	1.2–1.3	60%6/10	55%11/20	43%13/30
Gaziantep F.K.Kasımpaşa Fri 18:00 · Super Lig	Kasımpaşa 1X2	2.73 37%	37%2.73	0%	1.3–1.4	70%7/10	50%10/20	53%16/30

Al HazmAl Nassr
Fri 15:55 · Pro League
1.18
-19%
Al Nassr 1X2
xG 1.5–1.9 · Model 68%
L580%8/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
Dinamo Makhachkala U19Almaz-Antey U19
Fri 16:00 · Youth League
–
–
Almaz-Antey U19 1X2
xG 1.8–1.9 · Model 41%
L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1560%18/30
Septemvri SofiaLokomotiv Sofia 1929
Fri 16:00 · First League
2.19
-12%
Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 1X2
xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 40%
L560%6/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
UTA AradPetrolul 52
Fri 16:30 · Superliga
1.96
-9%
UTA Arad 1X2
xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 46%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1537%11/30
Al WakrahAl Shahaniya
Fri 17:30 · Stars League
1.65
-7%
Al Wakrah 1X2
xG 2.1–1.4 · Model 56%
L560%6/10L1045%9/20L1543%13/30
Lokomotiv MoskvaRubin Kazan
Fri 17:30 · Premier League
2.13
-5%
Lokomotiv Moskva 1X2
xG 1.5–1.2 · Model 45%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1523%7/30
Zenit U19Fakel U19
Fri 18:00 · Youth League
–
–
Zenit U19 1X2
xG 2.4–1.2 · Model 64%
L580%8/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
AntalyasporBursaspor
Fri 18:00 · 1. Lig
1.70
-12%
Bursaspor 1X2
xG 1.4–1.6 · Model 52%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1561%17/28
Sarıyer SKIğdır FK
Fri 18:00 · 1. Lig
2.76
-2%
Iğdır FK 1X2
xG 1.2–1.3 · Model 35%
L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1543%13/30
Gaziantep F.K.Kasımpaşa
Fri 18:00 · Super Lig
2.73
0%
Kasımpaşa 1X2
xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 37%
L570%7/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30

Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1: the model's view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 6 Nov, 15:18.

Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)

League	Matches	Home	Draw	Away	Goals
1. HNL	179	48%	24%	27.9%	2.8
1. Lig	391	43.5%	23.8%	32.7%	2.9
2. Bundesliga	297	46.1%	26.9%	26.9%	2.97
A-League Men	163	37.4%	28.2%	34.4%	2.84
A-League Women	128	43.8%	19.5%	36.7%	2.7
Admiral Bundesliga	189	47.6%	25.4%	27%	2.86
AFC Champions League Elite	134	45.5%	25.4%	29.1%	2.86
AFC Champions League Two	121	52.1%	16.5%	31.4%	2.79
Africa Cup of Nations	52	46.2%	25%	28.8%	2.33
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications	60	50%	21.7%	28.3%	2.53
Allsvenskan	223	41.3%	22.9%	35.9%	2.84
Botola Pro	221	35.7%	33.5%	30.8%	2.21
Brasileiro Women	167	42.5%	26.3%	31.1%	2.6
Bundesliga	297	45.5%	25.3%	29.3%	3.32
CAF Champions League	151	51%	29.1%	19.9%	2.06
Carabao Cup	93	40.9%	18.3%	40.9%	3.04
Challenger Pro League	244	45.1%	21.3%	33.6%	2.93
Champions League	279	52%	16.1%	31.9%	3.46
Championship	558	42.5%	25.8%	31.7%	2.73
Chance Liga	267	44.6%	20.6%	34.8%	2.75
CONCACAF Nations League	74	45.9%	10.8%	43.2%	3.38
Copa Del Rey	119	26.9%	10.9%	62.2%	3.23
Copa do Brasil	158	44.9%	30.4%	24.7%	2.11
Copa Libertadores	154	44.8%	26.6%	28.6%	2.1
Copa Sudamericana	157	44.6%	31.8%	23.6%	2.29
Coppa Italia	45	60%	24.4%	15.6%	3
Coupe de France	204	23%	26.5%	50.5%	3.13
DFB Pokal	63	27%	11.1%	61.9%	3.95
Eerste Divisie	372	44.6%	21%	34.4%	3.31
Ekstraklasa	300	45%	25.7%	29.3%	2.77
Eliteserien	224	50.4%	18.3%	31.3%	3.27
Enterprise National League	547	45.2%	20.1%	34.7%	3.06
Eredivisie	308	39.9%	28.2%	31.8%	3.3
Europa Conference League	429	47.3%	24%	28.7%	2.81
Europa League	287	48.8%	18.8%	32.4%	2.82
FA Cup	827	43.8%	18.5%	37.7%	3.31
First Division	180	37.2%	31.7%	31.1%	2.77
First League	273	44%	24.9%	31.1%	2.39
FNL	288	40.3%	28.1%	31.6%	2.52
Indian Super League	116	37.9%	31.9%	30.2%	2.49
J1 League	160	46.3%	21.9%	31.9%	2.91
K League 1	222	32%	33.8%	34.2%	2.44
KNVB Beker	109	40.4%	11%	48.6%	4.01
La Liga	379	48.3%	24.3%	27.4%	2.79
La Liga 2	468	45.3%	23.5%	31.2%	2.7
League One	551	44.3%	27.2%	28.5%	2.73
League Two	553	43.4%	27.5%	29.1%	2.59
Liga MX	326	43.6%	25.8%	30.7%	2.86
Liga Portugal	306	42.2%	26.1%	31.7%	2.69
Liga Profesional de Fútbol	527	41.7%	29.2%	29%	2.14
Ligat ha'Al	241	40.7%	24.9%	34.4%	2.96
Ligue 1	287	44.9%	24.4%	30.7%	2.85
Ligue 1	181	32%	28.2%	39.8%	2.06
Ligue 2	289	37.4%	30.8%	31.8%	2.58
Major League Soccer	506	46%	25.9%	28.1%	3.27
Persian Gulf Pro League	192	41.1%	34.9%	24%	1.85
Premier League	232	42.2%	28%	29.7%	2.56
Premier League	370	39.7%	29.2%	31.1%	2.76
Premier League	234	41%	26.5%	32.5%	2.51
Premier League	275	36%	33.5%	30.5%	2.18
Premier League	220	34.5%	35.9%	29.5%	2.13
Premiership	234	46.2%	23.5%	30.3%	2.81
Primera Division	292	41.4%	25.7%	32.9%	2.37
Pro League	347	43.8%	23.6%	32.6%	3
Pro League	299	42.5%	22.7%	34.8%	2.88
Russian Cup	144	40.3%	29.2%	30.6%	2.66
Serie A	404	49%	27%	24%	2.73
Serie A	380	41.6%	21.6%	36.8%	2.67
Serie B	391	45.3%	27.4%	27.4%	2.33
Serie B	381	43.8%	29.4%	26.8%	2.57
Stars League	132	36.4%	23.5%	40.2%	3.45
Super League	236	42.8%	27.5%	29.7%	2.57
Super League	222	40.1%	24.8%	35.1%	3.4
Super League	240	43.3%	26.7%	30%	3.15
Super Lig	297	45.5%	25.9%	28.6%	2.8
Superliga	187	41.7%	27.3%	31%	3.03
Superliga	309	50.2%	23.6%	26.2%	2.58
Taça De Portugal	146	44.5%	10.3%	45.2%	3.06
UAE Pro League	175	37.1%	25.7%	37.1%	3.06
UEFA Nations League	108	38%	25.9%	36.1%	2.44
UEFA Women's Champions League	162	50%	19.1%	30.9%	3.63
UEFA Youth League	216	50%	18.1%	31.9%	3.81
V-League	150	43.3%	22.7%	34%	2.71
Veikkausliiga	177	45.2%	26.6%	28.2%	2.57
WC Qualification Europe	60	46.7%	20%	33.3%	3.45
Women's Super League	147	44.9%	20.4%	34.7%	3.11
World Cup	104	48.1%	23.1%	28.8%	2.96
World Cup Women Qualification Europe	101	46.5%	13.9%	39.6%	3.45
Youth League	236	50%	15.7%	34.3%	3.81

How the Match Result Screener Works

Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the model EV is a small tilt on the price rather than a guess against it — and still the model's view, not a proven betting edge.

Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing an EV: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.

Using It With Other Stats

Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.

Match Result Screener