1X2 prediction & result chances

Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and how it compares with the price.

Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the Pinnacle price where the match is priced.

Smart views

72 matches · line closest to even per match

Upcoming matches with recent results hit rates, model chances and prices
	Line	Odds						L15
Bangladeshlimited dataSri Lankalimited data Wed 15:00 · SAFF Championship	Bangladesh 1X2	1.98 51%	46%2.16	-8%	1.6–1.2	40%4/10	40%4/10	40%4/10
OH Leuven WKøgelimited data Wed 18:45 · UEFA Women's Champions League	Køge 1X2	1.65 61%	50%1.99	-17%	1.7–1.6	40%4/10	53%9/17	45%10/22
SL Benfica Wlimited dataAustria Wien Wlimited data Wed 21:00 · UEFA Women's Champions League	SL Benfica W 1X2	1.61 62%	50%2.00	-19%	1.4–1.6	40%4/10	25%4/16	25%4/16
Juventus WOL Lyonnes W Wed 21:00 · UEFA Women's Champions League	OL Lyonnes W 1X2	1.12 89%	70%1.43	-22%	1.6–1.6	40%4/10	45%9/20	46%13/28
LondrinaNáutico Wed 23:00 · Serie B	Londrina 1X2	1.78 56%	51%1.98	-10%	1.5–1.2	40%4/10	35%7/20	30%9/30
Ghanalimited dataSomalialimited data Thu 16:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications	Ghana 1X2	1.07 93%	76%1.32	-19%	1.4–1.0	30%3/10	50%7/14	50%7/14
Madagascarnew teamGuinea-Bissaunew team Thu 17:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications	Guinea-Bissau 1X2	2.42 41%	38%2.60	-7%	1.3–1.4	50%4/8	50%4/8	50%4/8
Equatorial Guinealimited dataZimbabwelimited data Thu 17:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications	Equatorial Guinea 1X2	2.56 39%	37%2.67	-4%	1.4–1.3	40%4/10	38%5/13	38%5/13
Congo DRSierra Leonenew team Thu 17:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications	Congo DR 1X2	1.22 82%	68%1.46	-17%	1.6–1.0	67%6/9	50%7/14	58%11/19
TürkiyeBelgium Thu 18:00 · UEFA Nations League	Belgium 1X2	1.85 54%	49%2.05	-10%	1.4–1.6	60%6/10	50%10/20	44%12/27

Bangladeshlimited dataSri Lankalimited data
Wed 15:00 · SAFF Championship
1.98
-8%
Bangladesh 1X2
xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 46%
L540%4/10L1040%4/10L1540%4/10
OH Leuven WKøgelimited data
Wed 18:45 · UEFA Women's Champions League
1.65
-17%
Køge 1X2
xG 1.7–1.6 · Model 50%
L540%4/10L1053%9/17L1545%10/22
SL Benfica Wlimited dataAustria Wien Wlimited data
Wed 21:00 · UEFA Women's Champions League
1.61
-19%
SL Benfica W 1X2
xG 1.4–1.6 · Model 50%
L540%4/10L1025%4/16L1525%4/16
Juventus WOL Lyonnes W
Wed 21:00 · UEFA Women's Champions League
1.12
-22%
OL Lyonnes W 1X2
xG 1.6–1.6 · Model 70%
L540%4/10L1045%9/20L1546%13/28
LondrinaNáutico
Wed 23:00 · Serie B
1.78
-10%
Londrina 1X2
xG 1.5–1.2 · Model 51%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1530%9/30
Ghanalimited dataSomalialimited data
Thu 16:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications
1.07
-19%
Ghana 1X2
xG 1.4–1.0 · Model 76%
L530%3/10L1050%7/14L1550%7/14
Madagascarnew teamGuinea-Bissaunew team
Thu 17:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications
2.42
-7%
Guinea-Bissau 1X2
xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 38%
L550%4/8L1050%4/8L1550%4/8
Equatorial Guinealimited dataZimbabwelimited data
Thu 17:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications
2.56
-4%
Equatorial Guinea 1X2
xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 37%
L540%4/10L1038%5/13L1538%5/13
Congo DRSierra Leonenew team
Thu 17:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications
1.22
-17%
Congo DR 1X2
xG 1.6–1.0 · Model 68%
L567%6/9L1050%7/14L1558%11/19
TürkiyeBelgium
Thu 18:00 · UEFA Nations League
1.85
-10%
Belgium 1X2
xG 1.4–1.6 · Model 49%
L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1544%12/27

Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1: the model's view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 11 Nov, 14:53.

Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)

League	Matches	Home	Draw	Away	Goals
Coppa Italia	43	60%	23%	16%	3
CAF Champions League	62	53%	32%	15%	1.9
OBOS Ligaen	245	51%	18%	31%	3.8
Champions League	279	51%	18%	32%	3.39
UEFA Youth League	215	50%	18%	32%	3.83
Eliteserien	224	50%	19%	31%	3.36
AFC Champions League Two	121	50%	19%	31%	2.74
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications	60	50%	22%	28%	2.53
Serie A	392	49%	27%	24%	2.74
Superliga	309	49%	25%	26%	2.54
Admiral Bundesliga	190	48%	25%	27%	2.93
Europa League	269	48%	19%	33%	2.81
UEFA Women's Champions League	159	47%	25%	29%	3.5
WC Qualification Europe	60	47%	20%	33%	3.42
Women's Super League	148	47%	19%	34%	3.14
1. HNL	179	47%	23%	30%	2.84
Premiership	234	47%	23%	31%	2.82
La Liga	379	47%	25%	28%	2.78
Europa Conference League	411	47%	25%	28%	2.73
CONCACAF Nations League	74	46%	11%	43%	3.38
FA Cup	149	46%	23%	31%	3.36
Major League Soccer	516	46%	25%	29%	3.25
Enterprise National League	535	46%	21%	34%	3.06
2. Bundesliga	297	46%	28%	26%	2.99
J1 League	160	46%	23%	32%	2.88
Serie B	390	46%	27%	28%	2.34
Bundesliga	297	45%	25%	30%	3.31
Super League	248	45%	26%	29%	3.18
Challenger Pro League	244	45%	21%	34%	2.96
Ligue 1	287	45%	24%	31%	2.84
Super Lig	297	45%	25%	30%	2.81
Ekstraklasa	300	45%	26%	29%	2.77
La Liga 2	466	45%	23%	32%	2.68
Veikkausliiga	177	45%	27%	28%	2.61
Russian Cup	92	45%	24%	32%	2.59
Copa Sudamericana	157	45%	32%	24%	2.29
Copa do Brasil	159	45%	30%	25%	2.11
Copa Libertadores	154	45%	27%	29%	2.1
Eerste Divisie	371	44%	22%	34%	3.3
Pro League	338	44%	24%	32%	2.98
World Cup	104	44%	28%	28%	2.88
Chance Liga	266	44%	21%	35%	2.72
League One	539	44%	28%	29%	2.72
A-League Women	126	44%	19%	37%	2.65
Premier League	232	44%	27%	29%	2.59
League Two	541	44%	27%	29%	2.58
First League	271	44%	26%	30%	2.39
Pro League	300	43%	22%	35%	2.88
1. Lig	392	43%	24%	33%	2.87
Liga MX	326	43%	26%	31%	2.85
AFC Champions League Elite	134	43%	29%	28%	2.82
Championship	558	43%	26%	31%	2.74
Liga Portugal	305	43%	25%	32%	2.67
Serie B	381	43%	30%	27%	2.57
Toppserien	137	42%	16%	42%	3.28
Superliga	187	42%	28%	30%	3.03
Serie A	380	42%	21%	37%	2.68
Super League	236	42%	28%	30%	2.56
Primera Division	284	42%	26%	32%	2.37
Carabao Cup	93	41%	18%	41%	3.04
Ligat ha'Al	240	41%	24%	35%	2.9
Superettan	239	41%	28%	32%	2.9
Allsvenskan	223	41%	24%	35%	2.83
Taça De Portugal	32	41%	22%	38%	2.63
Africa Cup of Nations	51	41%	29%	29%	2.29
Liga Profesional de Fútbol	525	41%	30%	29%	2.15
Super League	229	40%	25%	35%	3.42
Premier League	231	40%	29%	31%	2.45
Eredivisie	308	39%	29%	32%	3.35
Premier League	370	39%	29%	32%	2.75
Ligue 2	287	39%	30%	31%	2.58
First Division	180	38%	31%	31%	2.74
UEFA Nations League	108	38%	26%	36%	2.44
Stars League	131	37%	23%	40%	3.42
UAE Pro League	182	37%	26%	37%	3.04
A-League Men	162	37%	30%	33%	2.86
Indian Super League	117	37%	32%	32%	2.5
Premier League	275	36%	33%	31%	2.18
KNVB Beker	57	35%	16%	49%	3.74
Premier League	220	35%	36%	30%	2.13
K League 1	222	32%	34%	34%	2.47
Coupe de France	120	27%	23%	50%	2.97
DFB Pokal	63	25%	16%	59%	3.78
Copa Del Rey	125	25%	23%	52%	2.94
Landspokal Cup	109	22%	12%	66%	3.63
NM Cup	127	17%	13%	70%	4.51

How the Match Result Screener Works

Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the model EV is a small tilt on the price rather than a guess against it — and still the model's view, not a proven betting edge.

Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing an EV: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.

Using It With Other Stats

Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.

1X2 prediction & result chances

Match Result Screener

Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)

How the Match Result Screener Works

Using It With Other Stats

Related stats