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Match Result Screener

Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and how it compares with the price.

Match Result Screener

Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the Pinnacle price where the match is priced.

Smart views
189 matches · line closest to even per match
  • ChapecoenseMirassol
    Tue 23:30 · Serie A
    2.04
    -10%
    Mirassol 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.4 · Model 44%
    L550%5/10L1045%9/20L1537%11/30
  • InternacionalCoritiba
    Wed 01:30 · Serie A
    1.58
    -10%
    Internacional 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 57%
    L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1533%10/30
  • Melbourne VictoryPersib
    Wed 08:45 · AFC Champions League Two
    1.90
    -15%
    Melbourne Victory 1X2
    xG 1.3–1.2 · Model 45%
    L510%1/10L1020%4/20L1523%6/26
  • YeniseyFK Nizjni Novgorod
    Wed 09:00 · Russian Cup
    –
    –
    FK Nizjni Novgorod 1X2
    xG 1.2–1.9 · Model 52%
    L580%8/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
  • AEK Athens U19new teamReal Madrid U19
    Wed 11:00 · UEFA Youth League
    1.30
    -21%
    Real Madrid U19 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.5 · Model 60%
    L538%3/8L1054%7/13L1563%10/16
  • SeoulThể Công-Viettel
    Wed 11:00 · AFC Champions League Two
    1.14
    -19%
    Seoul 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.1 · Model 71%
    L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
  • Pohang SteelersGamba Osaka
    Wed 11:00 · AFC Champions League Elite
    2.04
    -11%
    Gamba Osaka 1X2
    xG 1.3–1.3 · Model 43%
    L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1530%9/30
  • Fenerbahçe U19new teamLiverpool U19limited data
    Wed 12:00 · UEFA Youth League
    1.61
    -19%
    Liverpool U19 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.6 · Model 50%
    L550%4/8L1058%7/12L1558%7/12
  • LeningradetsSKA Khabarovsk
    Wed 12:00 · Russian Cup
    –
    –
    Leningradets 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.4 · Model 37%
    L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1537%11/30
  • Viking U19new teamSabah U19limited data
    Wed 13:00 · UEFA Youth League
    1.19
    -16%
    Viking U19 1X2
    xG 2.0–1.1 · Model 70%
    L588%7/8L1088%7/8L1588%7/8

Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1: the model's view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 3 Nov, 21:18.

Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)

LeagueHomeDrawAway
1. HNL48%24%27.9%
1. Lig43.5%23.8%32.7%
2. Bundesliga46.1%26.9%26.9%
A-League Men37%28.4%34.6%
A-League Women44.1%19.7%36.2%
Admiral Bundesliga47.6%25.4%27%
AFC Champions League Elite47.1%23.6%29.3%
AFC Champions League Two47.5%21.3%31.1%
Africa Cup of Nations46.2%25%28.8%
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications50%21.7%28.3%
Allsvenskan41.3%22.9%35.9%
Botola Pro36%32.9%31.1%
Brasileiro Women42.5%26.3%31.1%
Bundesliga45.5%25.3%29.3%
CAF Champions League51%29.1%19.9%
Carabao Cup40.9%18.3%40.9%
Challenger Pro League44.6%21.5%33.9%
Champions League51.6%17.4%31%
Championship42.7%26.1%31.3%
Chance Liga44.7%20.7%34.6%
CONCACAF Nations League45.9%10.8%43.2%
Copa Del Rey26.9%10.9%62.2%
Copa do Brasil44.9%30.4%24.7%
Copa Libertadores44.8%26.6%28.6%
Copa Sudamericana44.6%31.8%23.6%
Coppa Italia60%24.4%15.6%
Coupe de France23.2%26.6%50.2%
DFB Pokal27%11.1%61.9%
Eerste Divisie44.6%21%34.4%
Ekstraklasa45%25.7%29.3%
Eliteserien50.4%18.3%31.3%
Enterprise National League45.4%20.1%34.5%
Eredivisie39.9%28.2%31.8%
Europa Conference League47%23.8%29.2%
Europa League49.8%19%31.2%
FA Cup43.8%18.5%37.7%
First Division37.2%31.7%31.1%
First League44%24.9%31.1%
FNL40.5%28%31.5%
Indian Super League37.7%32.5%29.8%
J1 League46.3%21.9%31.9%
K League 132%33.8%34.2%
KNVB Beker40.4%11%48.6%
La Liga48.3%24.3%27.4%
La Liga 245.4%23.5%31.1%
League One44.3%27.1%28.6%
League Two43.5%27.5%29%
Liga MX43.6%25.8%30.7%
Liga Portugal42.2%26.1%31.7%
Liga Profesional de Fútbol41.7%29.5%28.8%
Ligat ha'Al40.8%24.6%34.6%
Ligue 144.9%24.4%30.7%
Ligue 132.6%27.7%39.7%
Ligue 237.4%30.8%31.8%
Major League Soccer46.2%25.8%28%
Persian Gulf Pro League40.7%35.1%24.2%
Premier League42.2%28%29.7%
Premier League39.7%29.2%31.1%
Premier League40.9%26.3%32.8%
Premier League35.6%34.2%30.2%
Premier League34.6%35.5%29.8%
Premiership46.2%23.5%30.3%
Primera Division41.3%25.6%33.1%
Pro League43.8%23.6%32.6%
Pro League42.6%22.8%34.6%
Russian Cup40.3%28.5%31.3%
Serie A48.9%27%24.1%
Serie A41.6%21.6%36.8%
Serie B44.9%27.6%27.6%
Serie B43.8%29.4%26.8%
Stars League36.4%23.5%40.2%
Super League42.8%27.5%29.7%
Super League40.1%24.8%35.1%
Super League43.3%26.7%30%
Super Lig45.5%25.9%28.6%
Superliga41.7%27.3%31%
Superliga50.2%23.6%26.2%
Taça De Portugal44.5%10.3%45.2%
UAE Pro League37.1%25.7%37.1%
UEFA Nations League38%25.9%36.1%
UEFA Women's Champions League50%19.1%30.9%
UEFA Youth League49.8%18.3%31.9%
V-League44.5%21.9%33.5%
Veikkausliiga45.2%26.6%28.2%
WC Qualification Europe46.7%20%33.3%
Women's Super League44.9%20.4%34.7%
World Cup48.1%23.1%28.8%
World Cup Women Qualification Europe46.5%13.9%39.6%
Youth League50%15.7%34.3%

How the Match Result Screener Works

Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the model EV is a small tilt on the price rather than a guess against it — and still the model's view, not a proven betting edge.

Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing an EV: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.

Using It With Other Stats

Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.

Related stats