Card Statistics
Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.
Card Screener
Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price, with value against bet365 where the odds are in.
Smart views
369 matches · best line per match
| Line | Odds | L15 | Last 10 · home / away | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ref Sebastían Zunino · 5.9 cards/match · ×1.29 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 68%1.48 | +12% | 6.7ref +1.5 | 80%8/10 | 80%16/20 | 70%21/30 |   |
| Ref Jarred Gillett · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.89 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 55%1.80 | -8% | 3.9ref −0.5 | 70%7/10 | 80%16/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref Lukas Fähndrich · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.92 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.90 | – | 4.8ref −0.4 | 90%9/10 | 80%16/20 | 70%21/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 59%1.69 | -2% | 4.3 | 63%5/8 | 77%10/13 | 83%15/18 |   |
| Ref Drew Fischer · 4.7 cards/match · ×1.07 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 63%1.58 | +5% | 4.8ref +0.3 | 70%7/10 | 75%15/20 | 73%22/30 |   |
| Ref Jair Marrufo · 3.3 cards/match · ×0.85 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 57%1.75 | -1% | 4.2ref −0.7 | 80%8/10 | 75%15/20 | 70%21/30 |   |
| Ref Ryan Lee · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.92 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.83 55% | 57%1.76 | +4% | 4.4ref −0.4 | 60%6/10 | 75%15/20 | 67%20/30 |   |
| Ref Carlos André Fernandes Macedo · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.87 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.77 | – | 4.0ref −0.6 | 100%10/10 | 75%15/20 | 73%22/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.79 | – | 5.0 | 70%7/10 | 75%15/20 | 73%22/30 |   |
| Ref Samuel Allison · 4.2 cards/match · ×0.98 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.80 56% | 56%1.79 | +1% | 4.2ref −0.1 | 70%7/10 | 75%15/20 | 70%21/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.83 | – | 4.9 | 60%6/10 | 75%15/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.85 | – | 4.9 | 70%7/10 | 75%15/20 | 70%21/30 |   |
| Ref Afro Rocha de Carvalho Filho · 5.3 cards/match · ×1.17 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 67%1.49 | +15% | 5.5ref +0.8 | 60%6/10 | 70%14/20 | 67%20/30 |   |
| Ref Matheus de Moraes Silva · no history | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 60%1.66 | 0% | 5.5 | 70%7/10 | 70%14/20 | 73%22/30 |   |
| Ref Bryan Ferreyra · no history | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.80 56% | 57%1.76 | +2% | 5.4 | 80%8/10 | 70%14/20 | 67%20/30 |   |
| Ref Davide Di Marco · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.93 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 54%1.84 | -7% | 3.9ref −0.3 | 90%9/10 | 70%14/20 | 67%20/30 |   |
| Ref Craig Hicks · 2.8 cards/match · ×0.75 | Over 2.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.85 | – | 2.8ref −1.0 | 70%7/10 | 70%14/20 | 73%22/30 |   |
| Ref Savio Pereira Sampaio · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.06 | Over 5.5 Match cards | 1.80 56% | 50%2.00 | -10% | 5.6ref +0.3 | 70%7/10 | 70%14/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 40%2.49 | – | 5.1 | 60%6/10 | 70%14/20 | 70%21/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 39%2.59 | – | 5.0 | 60%6/10 | 70%14/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref Emre Kargın · 5.0 cards/match · ×1.03 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.79 | – | 5.0ref +0.1 | 75%6/8 | 69%9/13 | 61%11/18 |   |
| Ref Duncan Nicolson · 4.4 cards/match · ×1.01 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 64%1.55 | +7% | 5.0ref +0.1 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 77%23/30 |   |
| Ref Maguielson Lima Barbosa · 5.4 cards/match · ×1.16 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 63%1.59 | +4% | 5.9ref +0.8 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 70%21/30 |   |
| Ref Alex Gomes Stefano · 5.6 cards/match · ×1.25 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.90 53% | 62%1.61 | +18% | 6.3ref +1.2 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref Robert Madley · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.00 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 62%1.62 | +3% | 4.6 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref Lucas Casagrande · 4.9 cards/match · ×1.11 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 61%1.64 | +1% | 5.6ref +0.5 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref Valerio Crezzini · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.92 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.61 62% | 57%1.75 | -8% | 4.0ref −0.4 | 80%8/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.79 | – | 5.0 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref Michael Salisbury · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.94 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 55%1.81 | -5% | 4.0ref −0.2 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa · 4.1 cards/match · ×0.98 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.81 | – | 5.0ref −0.1 | 50%5/10 | 65%13/20 | 67%20/30 |   |
| Ref Neil Hair · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.88 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.83 | – | 3.9ref −0.5 | 50%5/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref İlker Yasin Avcı · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.95 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.83 | – | 4.9ref −0.3 | 80%8/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.86 | – | 4.9 | 80%8/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref Giuseppe Mucera · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.86 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.83 55% | 54%1.86 | -2% | 4.0ref −0.6 | 90%9/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento · 5.6 cards/match · ×1.23 | Over 5.5 Match cards | 2.10 48% | 54%1.86 | +13% | 6.5ref +1.2 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.87 | – | 4.9 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.90 | – | 4.8 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 51%1.95 | – | 4.7 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 50%15/30 |   |
| Ref Mischa Huru Kellerhals · 3.2 cards/match · ×0.92 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 50%1.99 | – | 3.7ref −0.3 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref Vasilis Fitsas · no history | Over 4.5 Match cards | 2.20 45% | 47%2.12 | +4% | 4.8 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref Wim Smet · 3.3 cards/match · ×0.87 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 37%2.68 | – | 4.0ref −0.6 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref Adam Ladebäck · 3.1 cards/match · ×0.79 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 36%2.75 | – | 3.0ref −0.8 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref Augusto Olmos · 7.4 cards/match · ×1.36 | Over 6.5 Match cards | – | 70%1.42 | – | 8.1ref +2.2 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref Leandro Rey Hilfer · 5.0 cards/match · ×1.13 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.61 62% | 62%1.60 | +1% | 5.7ref +0.7 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 63%19/30 |   |
| Ref Harm Osmers · 5.2 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 61%1.63 | +2% | 4.5ref +0.6 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
| Ref Yuri Elino Ferreira da Cruz · 4.4 cards/match · ×1.02 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 58%1.72 | -4% | 5.3ref +0.1 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 70%21/30 |   |
| Ref Luis Lobo Medina · 5.8 cards/match · ×1.27 | Over 5.5 Match cards | 2.00 50% | 56%1.77 | +13% | 6.7ref +1.4 | 80%8/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref Luis Miguel Branco Godinho · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.06 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.79 | – | 5.0ref +0.3 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.79 | – | 5.0 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 67%20/30 |   |
| Ref Antonín Bohata · 2.0 cards/match · ×0.95 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.80 | – | 4.0ref −0.2 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
Aldosivi
BelgranoSun 17:45 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef Sebastían Zunino · 5.9 cards/match · ×1.291.66+12%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 6.7 · Model 68%L580%8/10L1080%16/20L1570%21/30
Manchester United
AFC BournemouthSun 14:00 · Premier LeagueRef Jarred Gillett · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.891.66-8%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.9 · Model 55%L570%7/10L1080%16/20L1563%19/30- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 53%L590%9/10L1080%16/20L1570%21/30
- 1.66-2%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.3 · Model 59%L563%5/8L1077%10/13L1583%15/18
Real Salt Lake
St. Louis CitySun 00:30 · Major League SoccerRef Drew Fischer · 4.7 cards/match · ×1.071.66+5%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 63%L570%7/10L1075%15/20L1573%22/30
Colorado Rapids
Vancouver WhitecapsSun 01:30 · Major League SoccerRef Jair Marrufo · 3.3 cards/match · ×0.851.72-1%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.2 · Model 57%L580%8/10L1075%15/20L1570%21/30- 1.83+4%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.4 · Model 57%L560%6/10L1075%15/20L1567%20/30
Estoril
MoreirenseSun 15:30 · Liga PortugalRef Carlos André Fernandes Macedo · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.87––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 56%L5100%10/10L1075%15/20L1573%22/30- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.0 · Model 56%L570%7/10L1075%15/20L1573%22/30
Queens Park Rangers
Swansea CityTomorrow 14:00 · ChampionshipRef Samuel Allison · 4.2 cards/match · ×0.981.80+1%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.2 · Model 56%L570%7/10L1075%15/20L1570%21/30- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 55%L560%6/10L1075%15/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 54%L570%7/10L1075%15/20L1570%21/30
- 1.72+15%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 5.5 · Model 67%L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1567%20/30
- 1.660%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.5 · Model 60%L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1573%22/30
- 1.80+2%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.4 · Model 57%L580%8/10L1070%14/20L1567%20/30
- 1.72-7%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.9 · Model 54%L590%9/10L1070%14/20L1567%20/30
- ––Over 2.5 Match cardsExp 2.8 · Model 54%L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1573%22/30
- 1.80-10%Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.6 · Model 50%L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1557%17/30
- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.1 · Model 40%L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1570%21/30
- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.0 · Model 39%L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.0 · Model 56%L575%6/8L1069%9/13L1561%11/18
- 1.66+7%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 5.0 · Model 64%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1577%23/30
- 1.66+4%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.9 · Model 63%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1570%21/30
- 1.90+18%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 6.3 · Model 62%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
Wolverhampton Wanderers
WatfordTomorrow 14:00 · ChampionshipRef Robert Madley · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.001.66+3%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.6 · Model 62%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30- 1.66+1%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.6 · Model 61%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1557%17/30
- 1.61-8%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 57%L580%8/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.0 · Model 56%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
West Ham United
SouthamptonTomorrow 14:00 · ChampionshipRef Michael Salisbury · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.941.72-5%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 55%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1557%17/30
Estrela Amadora
Casa PiaTomorrow 14:30 · Liga PortugalRef Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa · 4.1 cards/match · ×0.98––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.0 · Model 55%L550%5/10L1065%13/20L1567%20/30- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.9 · Model 55%L550%5/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 55%L580%8/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 54%L580%8/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
- 1.83-2%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 54%L590%9/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
Vitória
Athletico PRTomorrow 19:30 · Serie ARef André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento · 5.6 cards/match · ×1.232.10+13%Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 6.5 · Model 54%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 53%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 53%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.7 · Model 51%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1550%15/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.7 · Model 50%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1557%17/30
- 2.20+4%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 47%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1553%16/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 37%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.0 · Model 36%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 6.5 Match cardsExp 8.1 · Model 70%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
River Plate
Racing ClubSun 22:15 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef Leandro Rey Hilfer · 5.0 cards/match · ×1.131.61+1%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.7 · Model 62%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30- 1.66+2%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.5 · Model 61%L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
Atlético GO
NovorizontinoTomorrow 19:30 · Serie BRef Yuri Elino Ferreira da Cruz · 4.4 cards/match · ×1.021.66-4%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.3 · Model 58%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1570%21/30
San Lorenzo
Newell's Old BoysTomorrow 22:15 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef Luis Lobo Medina · 5.8 cards/match · ×1.272.00+13%Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 6.7 · Model 56%L580%8/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
Gil Vicente
PortoTomorrow 19:30 · Liga PortugalRef Luis Miguel Branco Godinho · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.06––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.0 · Model 56%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.0 · Model 56%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1567%20/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 56%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.7 to ×1.4); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 23 Oct, 20:17.
Referees this week — strictest first
| Referee | Cards / match | Effect | Next match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hernán Heras | 6.6 | ×1.40 |  Cerro Largov Boston River · Primera Division |
| José Armando Torres Bessa | 8.1 | ×1.40 |  Nacionalv Sporting Braga · Liga Portugal |
| Alberto Javier Feres | 6.4 | ×1.39 |  Central Españolv Albion · Primera Division |
| Andrés Matonte | 6.3 | ×1.38 |  Juventudv Peñarol · Primera Division |
| Darío Herrera | 6.2 | ×1.37 |  Argentinos Juniorsv Independiente Rivadavia · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Augusto Olmos | 7.4 | ×1.36 | Defensor SportingvRacing · Primera Division |
| Sebastián Nicolás Martínez | 6.4 | ×1.35 |  Gimnasia La Platav Sarmiento · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Esteban Ostojich | 6.1 | ×1.34 |  Montevideo City Torquev Cerro · Primera Division |
| Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho | 7.0 | ×1.33 |  Alvercav Arouca · Liga Portugal |
| Flavio Rodrigues De Souza | 5.9 | ×1.31 | Santosv Palmeiras · Serie A |
| Yael Falcón Pérez | 5.8 | ×1.29 |  Rosario Centralv Huracán · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Sebastían Zunino | 5.9 | ×1.29 | AldosivivBelgrano · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Radoslav Gidzhenov | 6.0 | ×1.29 |  Lokomotiv Sofia 1929v Botev Vratsa · First League |
| Paulo Cesar Zanovelli | 5.8 | ×1.28 |  Avaív Botafogo SP · Serie B |
| Luis Lobo Medina | 5.8 | ×1.27 | San LorenzovNewell's Old Boys · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Atilla Karaoğlan | 5.8 | ×1.27 |  Galatasarayv Fenerbahçe · Super Lig |
| Halil Umut Meler | 5.7 | ×1.27 |  Rizesporv Trabzonspor · Super Lig |
| Andrés Merlos | 5.8 | ×1.27 |  Barracas Centralv Estudiantes de Río Cuarto · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Lucas Paulo Torezin | 5.7 | ×1.26 |  Remov Botafogo · Serie A |
| Nazareno Arasa | 5.7 | ×1.26 |  Independientev Boca Juniors · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Felipe Fernandes de Lima | 5.6 | ×1.25 |  Sport Recifev Criciúma · Serie B |
| Alex Gomes Stefano | 5.6 | ×1.25 | São BernardovVila Nova · Serie B |
| Alex Gomes Stefano | 5.6 | ×1.25 |  GrêmiovAthletico PR · Serie A |
| Carlos Andrés Gariano | 5.7 | ×1.24 |  Institutov Deportivo Riestra · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Bruno Arleu de Araujo | 5.6 | ×1.24 |  CruzeirovRemo · Serie A |
| Bruno Arleu de Araujo | 5.6 | ×1.24 |  Vasco da Gamav Flamengo · Serie A |
| Bruno Mota Correia | 7.4 | ×1.24 |  Juventudev Náutico · Serie B |
| Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima | 5.6 | ×1.24 | Flamengov Atlético Mineiro · Serie A |
| José Burgos | 5.6 | ×1.23 |  Deportivo Maldonadov Danubio · Primera Division |
| Paride Tremolada | 5.7 | ×1.23 |  Virtus Entellav Mantova · Serie B |
| André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento | 5.6 | ×1.23 | VitóriavAthletico PR · Serie A |
| Wilton Pereira Sampaio | 5.4 | ×1.21 | Vasco da Gamav Corinthians · Serie A |
| Felix Wagner | 6.0 | ×1.20 |  Magdeburgv Karlsruher SC · 2. Bundesliga |
| Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes | 5.4 | ×1.19 |  Bragantinov Chapecoense · Serie A |
| Facundo Tello Figueroa | 5.3 | ×1.19 |  Banfieldv Lanús · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Mathías De Armas | 5.4 | ×1.19 |  Wanderersv Atlético Progreso · Primera Division |
| Fabio Maresca | 5.4 | ×1.18 |  Leccev Juventus · Serie A |
| Ümit Öztürk | 5.6 | ×1.18 |  Beşiktaşv İstanbul Başakşehir · Super Lig |
| Rosendo Mendoza | 5.3 | ×1.18 |  Portland Timbersv Charlotte · Major League Soccer |
| Afro Rocha de Carvalho Filho | 5.3 | ×1.17 | CRBvLondrina · Serie B |
How the Card Model Works
Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.
Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.
Using Card Stats for Betting
Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.
Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.