Card Statistics
Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.
Card Screener
Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price next to bet365 where the odds are in.
| Line | Odds | L15 | Last 10 · home / away | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ref Alejandro Morilla Turrión · 5.1 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 69%1.46 | +14% | 6.8ref +0.9 | 100%10/10 | 95%19/20 | 80%24/30 |   |
| Ref Michael MacDermid · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.08 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.80 56% | 62%1.62 | +11% | 4.9ref +0.3 | 90%9/10 | 90%18/20 | 77%23/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.77 | – | 5.0 | 80%8/10 | 85%17/20 | 73%22/30 |   |
| Ref Sascha Stegemann · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.98 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 56%1.78 | -4% | 4.1ref −0.1 | 80%8/10 | 85%17/20 | 70%21/30 |   |
| Ref John Beaton · 4.4 cards/match · ×1.06 | Over 2.5 Match cards | 1.57 64% | 69%1.45 | +8% | 4.2ref +0.3 | 70%7/10 | 80%16/20 | 80%24/30 |   |
| Ref Marco Di Bello · 3.2 cards/match · ×0.85 | Over 2.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 61%1.64 | +5% | 3.5ref −0.6 | 70%7/10 | 80%16/20 | 77%23/30 |   |
| Ref Michael Tykgaard · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.93 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.88 | – | 3.8ref −0.3 | 80%8/10 | 80%16/20 | 70%21/30 |   |
| Ref Guido Gonzalez · 4.5 cards/match · ×1.08 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.61 62% | 60%1.66 | -3% | 4.3ref +0.3 | 80%8/10 | 75%15/20 | 67%20/30 |   |
| Ref David Rock · 4.7 cards/match · ×1.12 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 2.25 44% | 59%1.71 | +32% | 5.2ref +0.6 | 80%8/10 | 75%15/20 | 70%21/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 57%1.76 | – | 5.1 | 70%7/10 | 75%15/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
- 1.66+14%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 6.8 · Model 69%L5100%10/10L1095%19/20L1580%24/30
- 1.80+11%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 62%L590%9/10L1090%18/20L1577%23/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.0 · Model 56%L580%8/10L1085%17/20L1573%22/30
- 1.72-4%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.1 · Model 56%L580%8/10L1085%17/20L1570%21/30
- 1.57+8%Over 2.5 Match cardsExp 4.2 · Model 69%L570%7/10L1080%16/20L1580%24/30
- 1.72+5%Over 2.5 Match cardsExp 3.5 · Model 61%L570%7/10L1080%16/20L1577%23/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.8 · Model 53%L580%8/10L1080%16/20L1570%21/30
- 1.61-3%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.3 · Model 60%L580%8/10L1075%15/20L1567%20/30
- 2.25+32%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 5.2 · Model 59%L580%8/10L1075%15/20L1570%21/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.1 · Model 57%L570%7/10L1075%15/20L1560%18/30
Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1: the model’s view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 7 Nov, 17:17.
Referees this week — strictest first
| Referee | Cards / match | Effect | Next match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson Daronco | 5.2 | ×1.15 |  Avaív São Bernardo · Serie B |
| Facundo Tello Figueroa | 5.0 | ×1.15 |  Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendozav Independiente Rivadavia · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Davi de Oliveira Lacerda | 5.2 | ×1.15 |  Novorizontinov Fortaleza · Serie B |
| Bruno Arleu de Araujo | 5.5 | ×1.15 |  Vila Novav Criciúma · Serie B |
| Istvan Kovacs | 5.4 | ×1.15 |  Farul Constanțav Rapid Bucuresti · Superliga |
| Ramon Abatti | 5.1 | ×1.15 |  Atlético Mineirov Grêmio · Copa do Brasil |
| Alex Gomes Stefano | 5.3 | ×1.15 |  Náuticov CRB · Serie B |
| Halil Umut Meler | 5.4 | ×1.15 |  Galatasarayv Amed SK · Super Lig |
| Lawrence Visser | 4.9 | ×1.15 |  OH Leuvenv Mechelen · Pro League |
| Sebastían Zunino | 5.2 | ×1.15 |  Boca Juniorsv Defensa y Justicia · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes | 5.1 | ×1.15 |  Goiásv Ponte Preta · Serie B |
| Rosendo Mendoza | 5.0 | ×1.15 |  Chicago Firev Columbus Crew · Major League Soccer |
| Víctor Rivas | 5.1 | ×1.15 |  Austinv Portland Timbers · Major League Soccer |
| Radoslav Gidzhenov | 5.6 | ×1.15 |  Spartak Varnav Arda · First League |
| André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento | 5.4 | ×1.15 |  Cuiabáv Juventude · Serie B |
| Edina Alves Batista | 5.7 | ×1.15 |  Cearáv América Mineiro · Serie B |
| Atilla Karaoğlan | 5.5 | ×1.15 |  Beşiktaşv Gençlerbirliği · Super Lig |
| Mateo Erceg | 5.0 | ×1.15 |  Varaždinv Dinamo Zagreb · 1. HNL |
| João António Ferreira Gonçalves | 5.7 | ×1.15 |  Sporting CPv Moreirense · Liga Portugal |
| Alexis Da Silva | 4.9 | ×1.15 |  Minnesota Unitedv SJ Earthquakes · Major League Soccer |
| Hernán Mastrángelo | 5.0 | ×1.15 |  Rosario Centralv Estudiantes de Río Cuarto · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Bastien Dechepy | 5.0 | ×1.15 |  Le Mansv Monaco · Ligue 1 |
| Sven Wolfensberger | 5.0 | ×1.15 |  St. Gallenv Lugano · Super League |
| Alejandro Morilla Turrión | 5.1 | ×1.15 | CórdobavCeuta · La Liga 2 |
| Snir Levi | 5.7 | ×1.15 |  Maccabi Haifav Maccabi Netanya · Ligat ha'Al |
| Luca Cibelli | 5.9 | ×1.15 |  Luzernv Young Boys · Super League |
| Alejandro Quintero González | 5.9 | ×1.15 |  Espanyolv Deportivo La Coruña · La Liga |
| Sören Storks | 5.0 | ×1.15 |  VfB Stuttgartv Werder Bremen · Bundesliga |
| Nikola Popov | 5.0 | ×1.15 |  Levski Sofiav CSKA Sofia · First League |
| David Rafael Oliveira Silva | 6.2 | ×1.15 |  Vitória Guimarãesv Porto · Liga Portugal |
| Rafael Shafeev | 5.1 | ×1.15 |  Spartak Moskvav Akron · Premier League |
| Fedayi San | 5.3 | ×1.15 |  Servettev Zürich · Super League |
| José Armando Torres Bessa | 7.3 | ×1.15 |  Estorilv Marítimo · Liga Portugal |
| Muhammet Ali Metoğlu | 5.7 | ×1.15 |  Mardin BBv Batman Petrolspor · 1. Lig |
| Ramy Touchan | 5.4 | ×1.15 |  San Diegov Sporting KC · Major League Soccer |
| Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho | 6.0 | ×1.15 |  Nacionalv Academico Viseu · Liga Portugal |
| Daniel Stefanski | 6.1 | ×1.15 |  Jagiellonia Białystokv Katowice · Ekstraklasa |
| Berkay Erdemir | 5.2 | ×1.15 |  Pendiksporv İstanbulspor · 1. Lig |
| Diogo Rosa | 5.8 | ×1.15 |  Santa Clarav Gil Vicente · Liga Portugal |
| Cláudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira | 5.5 | ×1.15 |  Rio Avev Sporting Braga · Liga Portugal |
How the Card Model Works
Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.
Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.
Using Card Stats for Betting
Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.
Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.
Related stats
- Corner stats screenerCorner lines and hit rates by fixture
- Player prop screenerShots, fouls, tackles and cards by player
- Over/under goals screenerGoal-line hit rates for every upcoming match
- Mathematical football predictionsThis week's model probabilities for every match
- Football stats explainedWhat each number means and how to bet on it