Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.
Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price next to bet365 where the odds are in.
| Line | Odds | L15 | Last 10 · home / away | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ref Alex Gomes Stefano · 5.4 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.61 62% | 67%1.49 | +8% | 5.2ref +0.7 | 80%8/10 | 80%16/20 | 73%22/30 | |
| Ref Iosu Galech Apezteguía · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.11 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.61 62% | 62%1.60 | +1% | 5.7ref +0.6 | 90%9/10 | 75%15/20 | 67%20/30 | |
| Ref Michalis Matsoukas · 5.6 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.90 53% | 58%1.71 | +11% | 5.8ref +0.8 | 60%6/10 | 75%15/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima · 5.3 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.80 56% | 57%1.77 | +2% | 5.3ref +0.7 | 80%8/10 | 75%15/20 | 67%20/30 | |
| Ref Lars Erbst · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.88 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 57%1.77 | – | 4.0ref −0.5 | 70%7/10 | 75%15/20 | 80%24/30 | |
| Ref Duncan Nicolson · 4.5 cards/match · ×1.05 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.90 53% | 56%1.79 | +6% | 4.4ref +0.2 | 80%8/10 | 75%15/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref Joe Dickerson · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.11 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 61%1.64 | +2% | 4.5ref +0.4 | 60%6/10 | 70%14/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref Filip Dujic · 4.2 cards/match · ×1.01 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 58%1.72 | 0% | 4.3 | 80%8/10 | 70%14/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.87 | – | 4.9 | 70%7/10 | 70%14/20 | 73%22/30 | |
| Ref Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.92 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.90 | – | 3.8ref −0.4 | 60%6/10 | 70%14/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref Alain Sadikovski · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.01 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 46%2.16 | – | 4.5ref +0.1 | 70%7/10 | 70%14/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.83 | – | 4.9 | 67%4/6 | 67%4/6 | 67%4/6 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 45%2.22 | – | 5.4 | 67%4/6 | 67%4/6 | 67%4/6 | |
| Ref Valerio Crezzini · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.95 | Over 2.5 Match cards | 1.61 62% | 63%1.60 | +1% | 3.5ref −0.2 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref Lorenzo Hernandez · 4.4 cards/match · ×1.03 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.61 62% | 63%1.60 | +1% | 4.6ref +0.1 | 50%5/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref Aydin Uslu · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.97 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.78 | – | 4.0ref −0.1 | 80%8/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref Álvaro Carranza · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.06 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 55%1.81 | -8% | 4.9ref +0.3 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 47%14/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.81 | – | 3.9 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref Sandi Putros · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.92 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.86 | – | 3.9ref −0.3 | 50%5/10 | 65%13/20 | 67%20/30 | |
| Ref Lasse Læbel Graagaard · 3.1 cards/match · ×0.85 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.88 | – | 3.8ref −0.7 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 70%21/30 | |
| Ref J. Ordelmans · 1.8 cards/match · ×0.85 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 52%1.91 | – | 3.8ref −0.7 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 50%1.98 | – | 4.7 | 50%5/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.05 | – | 5.6 | 80%8/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref Abdullah Buğra Taşkınsoy · 4.1 cards/match · ×0.99 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.05 | – | 4.6ref −0.1 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 44%2.27 | – | 5.3 | 90%9/10 | 65%13/20 | 47%14/30 | |
| Ref Igor Kaplenkov · 3.2 cards/match · ×0.86 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 44%2.29 | – | 4.3ref −0.7 | 50%5/10 | 65%13/20 | 50%15/30 | |
| Ref Marko Crnojević · 2.5 cards/match · ×0.93 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 41%2.46 | – | 4.2ref −0.3 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref Hélder Carvalho · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.88 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 40%2.50 | – | 4.2ref −0.5 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 51%1.96 | – | 4.7 | 56%5/9 | 64%9/14 | 58%11/19 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.90 | – | 3.8 | 63%5/8 | 62%8/13 | 61%11/18 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 43%2.33 | – | 5.3 | 75%6/8 | 62%8/13 | 57%8/14 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.04 | – | 4.6 | 60%6/10 | 61%11/18 | 57%13/23 | |
| Ref André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento · 5.4 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 61%1.65 | +4% | 5.7ref +0.7 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref Sebastián Nicolás Martínez · 6.2 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 59%1.70 | +1% | 5.5ref +0.7 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.84 | – | 3.9 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.84 | – | 3.9 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 47%14/30 | |
| Ref Rafael Sánchez López · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.08 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.83 55% | 54%1.85 | -1% | 5.1ref +0.4 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.86 | – | 4.9 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref Michiel Allaerts · 4.2 cards/match · ×0.99 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.88 | – | 3.8 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref Víctor Alfonso Cáceres Hernández · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.92 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 51%1.97 | -16% | 4.5ref −0.4 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref Sergii Demianchuk · 4.4 cards/match · ×1.03 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 2.10 48% | 50%1.99 | +6% | 4.0ref +0.1 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa · 4.2 cards/match · ×0.99 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.03 | – | 4.6 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref José Luis Munuera Montero · 4.1 cards/match · ×0.98 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.83 55% | 49%2.04 | -10% | 4.6ref −0.1 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref Süleyman Bahadır · 4.2 cards/match · ×1.00 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.05 | – | 4.6 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 50%15/30 | |
| Ref Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.95 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 2.00 50% | 47%2.13 | -6% | 3.6ref −0.2 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 50%15/30 | |
| Ref Artem Chistyakov · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.89 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 43%2.33 | – | 4.3ref −0.5 | 40%4/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 51%1.95 | – | 4.7 | 70%7/10 | 56%9/16 | 56%9/16 | |
| Ref Jasper Vitse · 3.1 cards/match · ×0.85 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 50%1.99 | – | 3.7ref −0.6 | 70%7/10 | 56%9/16 | 48%10/21 | |
| Ref Christos Vergetis · 5.1 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 5.5 Match cards | 2.00 50% | 46%2.17 | -8% | 5.4ref +0.7 | 40%4/10 | 56%9/16 | 56%9/16 | |
| Ref Florian Exner · 5.7 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.61 62% | 62%1.61 | 0% | 4.5ref +0.6 | 70%7/10 | 55%11/20 | 53%16/30 |
Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1: the model’s view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 31 Oct, 19:17.
| Referee | Cards / match | Effect | Next match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson Daronco | 5.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Facundo Tello Figueroa | 5.0 | ×1.15 | |
| Esteban Ostojich | 6.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Yael Falcón Pérez | 5.7 | ×1.15 | |
| Wilton Pereira Sampaio | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Davi de Oliveira Lacerda | 5.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Darío Herrera | 6.0 | ×1.15 | |
| Bruno Arleu de Araujo | 5.5 | ×1.15 | |
| José Burgos | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Alex Gomes Stefano | 5.4 | ×1.15 | |
| Paulo Cesar Zanovelli | 5.7 | ×1.15 | |
| Ramon Abatti | 5.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Hernán Heras | 6.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Felipe Fernandes de Lima | 5.5 | ×1.15 | |
| Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Nicolás Ramírez | 6.6 | ×1.15 | |
| Alejandro José Hernández Hernández | 5.1 | ×1.15 | |
| Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Fillho | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Lucas Paulo Torezin | 5.5 | ×1.15 | |
| André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento | 5.4 | ×1.15 | |
| Sebastián Nicolás Martínez | 6.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Edina Alves Batista | 6.0 | ×1.15 | |
| Afro Rocha de Carvalho Filho | 5.1 | ×1.15 | |
| João António Ferreira Gonçalves | 6.1 | ×1.15 | |
| Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández | 6.8 | ×1.15 | |
| Alexis Da Silva | 5.1 | ×1.15 | |
| Kirill Levnikov | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Andrés Fuentes Molina | 5.8 | ×1.15 | |
| Ozan Ergün | 5.1 | ×1.15 | |
| John Brooks | 5.4 | ×1.15 | |
| Florian Exner | 5.7 | ×1.15 | |
| Lluís Bestard Servera | 5.7 | ×1.15 | |
| Alejandro Ojaos Valera | 5.6 | ×1.15 | |
| Christos Vergetis | 5.1 | ×1.15 | |
| Miguel Bertolo Nogueira | 5.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Paride Tremolada | 5.8 | ×1.15 | |
| Sören Storks | 5.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Alessandro Dudic | 5.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Adonai Escobedo González | 5.1 | ×1.15 | |
| David Rafael Oliveira Silva | 6.3 | ×1.15 |
Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.
Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.
Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.
Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.