Card Statistics

Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.

Card Screener

Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price next to bet365 where the odds are in.

Smart views

189 matches · line closest to even per match

Upcoming matches with recent cards hit rates, model chances and prices
	Line	Odds						L15
Crvena Zvezda U19limited dataBravo U19new team Wed 14:00 · UEFA Youth LeagueRef Igor Shumilov · 2.0 cards/match · ×0.95	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	59%1.69	–	4.1ref −0.2	88%7/8	88%7/8	88%7/8
Lens U19new teamComo U19new team Wed 14:00 · UEFA Youth LeagueRef Matthew MacDermid · no history	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	52%1.93	–	4.8	83%5/6	83%5/6	83%5/6
Slavia Prague U19limited dataArsenal U19limited data Wed 14:00 · UEFA Youth LeagueRef Artem Gasparyan · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.99	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	51%1.98	–	4.7	80%8/10	82%14/17	82%14/17
Sturm GrazCelje Thu 21:00 · Europa LeagueRef Giorgi Kruashvili · 6.3 cards/match · ×1.15	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.66 60%	65%1.53	+8%	5.1ref +0.7	90%9/10	70%14/20	70%21/30
BenficaLech Poznań Thu 21:00 · Europa LeagueRef Martin Matoša · 5.1 cards/match · ×1.11	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.61 62%	65%1.54	+5%	4.9ref +0.5	70%7/10	70%14/20	57%17/30
SunderlandDinamo Zagreb Thu 21:00 · Europa LeagueRef Andrea Colombo · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.13	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.83 55%	59%1.69	+8%	4.7ref +0.5	60%6/10	70%14/20	67%20/30
Al FatehAl Riyadh Fri 15:30 · Pro LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	57%1.74	–	4.0	80%8/10	70%14/20	63%19/30
CastellónSD Eibar Fri 20:30 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	57%1.75	–	5.1	80%8/10	70%14/20	67%20/30
San LorenzoPlatense Fri 23:00 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	54%1.84	–	4.9	60%6/10	70%14/20	67%20/30
FC KøbenhavnFC Iberia 1999 Thu 21:00 · Europa Conference LeagueRef Robert Hennessy · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.93	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	52%1.92	–	3.8ref −0.3	70%7/10	70%14/20	60%15/25

Crvena Zvezda U19limited dataBravo U19new team
Wed 14:00 · UEFA Youth League
Ref Igor Shumilov · 2.0 cards/match · ×0.95
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.1 · Model 59%
L588%7/8L1088%7/8L1588%7/8
Lens U19new teamComo U19new team
Wed 14:00 · UEFA Youth League
Ref Matthew MacDermid · no history
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 52%
L583%5/6L1083%5/6L1583%5/6
Slavia Prague U19limited dataArsenal U19limited data
Wed 14:00 · UEFA Youth League
Ref Artem Gasparyan · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.99
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
L580%8/10L1082%14/17L1582%14/17
Sturm GrazCelje
Thu 21:00 · Europa League
Ref Giorgi Kruashvili · 6.3 cards/match · ×1.15
1.66
+8%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 5.1 · Model 65%
L590%9/10L1070%14/20L1570%21/30
BenficaLech Poznań
Thu 21:00 · Europa League
Ref Martin Matoša · 5.1 cards/match · ×1.11
1.61
+5%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.9 · Model 65%
L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1557%17/30
SunderlandDinamo Zagreb
Thu 21:00 · Europa League
Ref Andrea Colombo · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.13
1.83
+8%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 59%
L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1567%20/30
Al FatehAl Riyadh
Fri 15:30 · Pro League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 57%
L580%8/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
CastellónSD Eibar
Fri 20:30 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.1 · Model 57%
L580%8/10L1070%14/20L1567%20/30
San LorenzoPlatense
Fri 23:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.9 · Model 54%
L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1567%20/30
FC KøbenhavnFC Iberia 1999
Thu 21:00 · Europa Conference League
Ref Robert Hennessy · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.93
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 52%
L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1560%15/25

Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1: the model’s view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 3 Nov, 23:18.

Referees this week — strictest first

Referee	Matches	Cards / match	Effect	Next match	Exp. cards
Wilton Pereira Sampaio	63	5.2	×1.15	PalmeirasvRemoThu 23:30 · Serie A	4.7 → 5.4
Ramon Abatti	51	5.1	×1.15	Athletico PRvVasco da GamaWed 23:30 · Serie A	4.5 → 5.1
Paulo Cesar Zanovelli	51	5.6	×1.15	FlamengovGrêmioWed 23:30 · Serie A	4.8 → 5.6
Damian Sylwestrzak	43	5.0	×1.15	AZvJuventusThu 21:00 · Europa League	3.8 → 4.4
Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Fillho	41	5.3	×1.15	InternacionalvCoritibaWed 01:30 · Serie A	4.5 → 5.2
Paweł Raczkowski	41	5.4	×1.15	FC MidtjyllandvAjaxThu 18:45 · Europa Conference League	3.9 → 4.5
Radoslav Gidzhenov	41	5.6	×1.15	LillestrømvViktoria PlzeňThu 18:45 · Europa League	4.0 → 4.7
Lucas Paulo Torezin	40	5.4	×1.15	ChapecoensevMirassolTue 23:30 · Serie A	4.3 → 5.0
Stuart Attwell	39	5.0	×1.15	EvertonvCoventry CityFri 21:00 · Premier League	4.1 → 4.7
Rareș George Vidican	38	5.5	×1.15	AEK Athens U19vReal Madrid U19Wed 11:00 · UEFA Youth League	4.9 → 5.6
Mateo Erceg	36	5.0	×1.15	PSV U19vClub Brugge U19Wed 14:00 · UEFA Youth League	5.0 → 5.7
Patryk Gryckiewicz	34	4.9	×1.15	Lincoln Red ImpsvHajduk SplitThu 18:45 · Europa Conference League	4.7 → 5.4
Bastien Dechepy	32	5.0	×1.15	Žilina U19vHJK U19Wed 16:30 · UEFA Youth League	4.3 → 5.0
Orel Grinfeeld	32	5.0	×1.15	Bayer 04 LeverkusenvOlympique MarseilleThu 21:00 · Europa League	4.2 → 4.8
John Brooks	32	5.3	×1.15	Leeds UnitedvTottenham HotspurSat 13:30 · Premier League	4.2 → 4.8
Bastien Dechepy	32	5.0	×1.15	Le MansvMonacoSun 17:15 · Ligue 1	4.2 → 4.8
Mateo Busquets Ferrer	31	5.3	×1.15	PAOK U19vZrinjski U19Wed 14:30 · UEFA Youth League	4.6 → 5.3
Alexandros Tsakalidis	29	5.2	×1.15	København U19vDinamo Tbilisi U19Wed 14:00 · UEFA Youth League	3.8 → 4.4
Horatiu Fesnic	29	5.1	×1.15	Crystal PalacevTSG HoffenheimThu 18:45 · Europa League	4.2 → 4.9
Igal Frid	24	5.0	×1.15	LuganovKauno ŽalgirisThu 21:00 · Europa Conference League	4.3 → 4.9
Antoni Bandić	11	6.8	×1.15	MonacovNordsjællandThu 21:00 · Europa Conference League	4.4 → 5.1
Giorgi Kruashvili	9	6.3	×1.15	Sturm GrazvCeljeThu 21:00 · Europa League	4.4 → 5.1
Kristo Tohver	8	6.5	×1.15	TrabzonsporvSC FreiburgThu 18:45 · Europa Conference League	4.2 → 4.8
Henrik Nalbandyan	6	5.8	×1.15	Crvena ZvezdavInter Club d'EscaldesThu 18:45 · Europa Conference League	4.7 → 5.4
David Dickinson	39	4.9	×1.15	Chelsea U19vFlora U19Wed 14:00 · UEFA Youth League	4.8 → 5.5
David Dickinson	39	4.9	×1.15	St. JohnstonevDundeeSat 16:00 · Premiership	4.0 → 4.6
Robert Harvey	6	5.7	×1.14	KuPSvGentThu 18:45 · Europa Conference League	3.9 → 4.5
Andrea Colombo	42	4.8	×1.13	SunderlandvDinamo ZagrebThu 21:00 · Europa League	4.1 → 4.7
Mathieu Vernice	33	4.8	×1.13	ToulousevStrasbourgFri 20:45 · Ligue 1	3.9 → 4.4
Anastasios Papapetrou	34	4.8	×1.13	Real SociedadvOlympique LyonnaisThu 18:45 · Europa League	4.0 → 4.5
Harald Lechner	19	4.9	×1.12	RiedvLASK LinzSat 19:30 · Admiral Bundesliga	4.0 → 4.5
Chris Kavanagh	58	4.7	×1.12	Manchester UnitedvAston VillaSun 17:30 · Premier League	4.8 → 5.3
Kyriakos Athanasiou	7	5.3	×1.12	ThunvHeartsThu 18:45 · Europa Conference League	4.6 → 5.2
Martin Matoša	9	5.1	×1.11	BenficavLech PoznańThu 21:00 · Europa League	4.4 → 4.9
Lucas Casagrande	47	4.6	×1.10	BotafogovAtlético MineiroThu 01:30 · Serie A	3.9 → 4.3
Geoffrey Kubler	26	4.7	×1.10	Angers SCOvNiceSun 17:15 · Ligue 1	3.7 → 4.0
Aaron O'Dowd	2	6.5	×1.10	Pafos U19vBenfica U19Wed 13:00 · UEFA Youth League	5.1 → 5.6
Rodrigo Pereira	12	4.8	×1.09	VitóriavFluminenseSat 00:00 · Serie A	4.5 → 4.9
Marc Bollengier	26	4.6	×1.09	AuxerrevParisSat 17:15 · Ligue 1	4.0 → 4.3
Rafael Rodrigo Klein	58	4.5	×1.08	CruzeirovBahiaFri 01:30 · Serie A	4.4 → 4.7

How the Card Model Works

Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.

Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.

Using Card Stats for Betting

Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.

Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.

Card Statistics

Card Screener

Referees this week — strictest first

How the Card Model Works

Using Card Stats for Betting

Related stats