Card Statistics

Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.

Card Screener

Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price, with value against bet365 where the odds are in.

Smart views

159 matches · best line per match

Upcoming matches with recent cards hit rates and model value
	Line	Odds						L15
AldosiviBelgrano Sun 18:45 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef Sebastían Zunino · 5.9 cards/match · ×1.15	Over 4.5 Match cards	1.66 60%	63%1.58	+5%	5.9ref +0.8	80%8/10	80%16/20	70%21/30
JuventudeNáutico Tue 00:30 · Serie BRef Bruno Mota Correia · 7.4 cards/match · ×1.15	Over 4.5 Match cards	1.66 60%	60%1.65	0%	5.5ref +0.7	60%6/10	75%15/20	73%22/30
EstorilMoreirense Sun 16:30 · Liga PortugalRef Carlos André Fernandes Macedo · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.87	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	56%1.77	–	4.0ref −0.6	100%10/10	75%15/20	73%22/30
FC AndorraBurgos Mon 20:30 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	40%2.49	–	5.1	60%6/10	70%14/20	70%21/30
KeçiörengücüBursaspor Sun 17:00 · 1. LigRef Emre Kargın · 5.0 cards/match · ×1.03	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	56%1.80	–	5.0ref +0.1	75%6/8	69%9/13	61%11/18
Sarpsborg 08Aalesund Sun 17:00 · EliteserienRef Mischa Huru Kellerhals · 3.2 cards/match · ×0.92	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	50%1.99	–	3.7ref −0.3	60%6/10	65%13/20	57%17/30
Benfica U19Pafos U19 Wed 17:00 · UEFA Youth LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	48%2.10	–	5.5	70%7/10	64%9/14	64%9/14
Al JaziraMuharraq Wed 17:00 · AFC Champions League TwoRef: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	43%2.33	–	5.3	70%7/10	63%10/16	67%14/21
River PlateRacing Club Sun 23:15 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef Leandro Rey Hilfer · 5.0 cards/match · ×1.13	Over 4.5 Match cards	1.61 62%	63%1.60	+1%	5.7ref +0.7	60%6/10	60%12/20	63%19/30
SC FreiburgVfL Wolfsburg Wed 18:00 · DFB PokalRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	57%1.77	–	4.0	70%7/10	60%12/20	60%18/30
Halifax TownBarrow Tue 20:45 · Enterprise National LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	56%1.79	–	4.0	40%4/10	60%12/20	53%16/30
Olympique MarseilleLe Havre Sun 17:15 · Ligue 1Ref Clément Turpin · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.89	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.66 60%	52%1.91	-13%	3.6ref −0.5	60%6/10	60%12/20	63%19/30
CastellónSporting Gijón Sun 18:30 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	41%2.46	–	5.1	40%4/10	60%12/20	57%17/30
WealdstoneSolihull Moors Tue 20:45 · Enterprise National LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	57%1.76	–	4.0	50%5/10	55%11/20	67%20/30
RosenborgHamKam Wed 18:00Ref: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	56%1.77	–	4.0	40%4/10	55%11/20	50%15/30
AIKElfsborg Tue 19:00 · AllsvenskanRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.83	–	3.9	50%5/10	55%11/20	60%18/30
FC BarcelonaReal Madrid Sun 21:00 · La LigaRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	54%1.84	–	3.9	60%6/10	55%11/20	53%16/30
BaselGrasshopper Sun 16:30 · Super LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	53%1.90	–	4.8	70%7/10	55%11/20	53%16/30
Kawkab MarrakechDifaâ El Jadida Sun 19:00 · Botola ProRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	51%1.95	–	4.8	60%6/10	55%11/20	47%14/30
QuerétaroCruz Azul Mon 02:00 · Liga MXRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	50%2.01	–	4.7	50%5/10	55%11/20	57%17/30
RennesStrasbourg Sun 17:15 · Ligue 1Ref Ruddy Buquet · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.85	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.61 62%	50%2.02	-20%	3.3ref −0.6	50%5/10	55%11/20	57%17/30
Al Shamal SCAl Hilal Tue 19:15 · AFC Champions League EliteRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	49%2.03	–	4.6	40%4/10	55%11/20	50%15/30
Unión Santa FeEstudiantes Mon 23:00 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef Pablo Dóvalo · 5.2 cards/match · ×1.15	Over 5.5 Match cards	2.20 45%	49%2.03	+8%	6.0ref +0.8	40%4/10	55%11/20	57%17/30
Legia WarszawaLech Poznań Sun 17:30 · EkstraklasaRef Szymon Marciniak · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.89	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	49%2.04	–	3.6ref −0.4	50%5/10	55%11/20	57%17/30
RFC LiègePatro Eisden Maasmechelen Sun 19:15 · Challenger Pro LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	47%2.15	–	4.5	50%5/10	55%11/20	50%15/30
KristiansundKFUM Sun 17:00 · EliteserienRef Svein Tore Sinnes · 3.3 cards/match · ×0.85	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	46%2.16	–	3.5ref −0.6	40%4/10	55%11/20	50%15/30
Lokomotiv PlovdivSlavia Sofia Mon 16:00 · First LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	45%2.21	–	4.4	70%7/10	55%11/20	47%14/30
Rio AveFamalicão Sun 19:00 · Liga PortugalRef Hélder Carvalho · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.90	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	42%2.41	–	4.2ref −0.4	50%5/10	55%11/20	63%19/30
Fleetwood TownArsenal Tue 21:00 · Carabao CupRef Michael Salisbury · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.95	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	40%2.48	–	4.2ref −0.2	50%5/10	55%11/20	43%13/30
Mardin BBManisa FK Mon 18:00 · 1. LigRef Hakan Ülker · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.03	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	42%2.39	–	5.2ref +0.2	63%5/8	54%7/13	50%9/18
Barracas CentralEstudiantes de Río Cuarto Mon 01:30 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef Andrés Merlos · 5.8 cards/match · ×1.15	Over 4.5 Match cards	1.83 55%	58%1.73	+6%	5.6ref +0.7	60%6/10	50%10/20	53%16/30
Volos NFCPanathinaikos Sun 17:00 · Super LeagueRef Konstantinos Tsetsilas · no history	Over 4.5 Match cards	1.66 60%	57%1.76	-6%	5.1	30%3/10	50%10/20	47%14/30
SC FreiburgFC Bayern München Sun 17:30 · BundesligaRef Felix Zwayer · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.09	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.80 56%	55%1.81	0%	4.2ref +0.4	60%6/10	50%10/20	53%16/30
Al-QadsiahAl Sadd Mon 19:15 · AFC Champions League EliteRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.81	–	3.9	40%4/10	50%10/20	47%14/30
Central Cordoba SdEVélez Sarsfield Mon 01:30 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef Pablo Echavarría · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.06	Over 4.5 Match cards	1.90 53%	55%1.82	+4%	5.3ref +0.3	80%8/10	50%10/20	50%15/30
OuluVPS Wed 17:00 · VeikkausliigaRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.82	–	3.9	40%4/10	50%10/20	53%16/30
Bradford CityPeterborough United Tue 20:45 · Carabao CupRef Thomas Kirk · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.01	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	54%1.84	–	3.9	30%3/10	50%10/20	60%18/30
ToulouseTroyes Sun 17:15 · Ligue 1Ref Geoffrey Kubler · 4.7 cards/match · ×1.06	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.83 55%	54%1.86	-2%	4.0ref +0.2	50%5/10	50%10/20	47%14/30
Kashima AntlersPohang Steelers Wed 11:00 · AFC Champions League EliteRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	53%1.88	–	3.8	50%5/10	50%10/20	48%13/27
MontpellierRed Star Mon 20:45 · Ligue 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	53%1.88	–	3.8	50%5/10	50%10/20	50%15/30
CesenaEmpoli Tue 20:00 · Serie BRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	53%1.88	–	3.8	40%4/10	50%10/20	57%17/30
SionLausanne Sport Sun 16:30 · Super LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	53%1.89	–	4.8	80%8/10	50%10/20	53%16/30
Kyoto SangaNewcastle Jets Tue 11:00 · AFC Champions League EliteRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	53%1.89	–	3.8	30%3/10	50%10/20	48%13/27
Angers SCOLorient Sun 17:15 · Ligue 1Ref Azzedine Souifi · 4.2 cards/match · ×0.98	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.83 55%	53%1.90	-4%	3.9ref −0.1	50%5/10	50%10/20	53%16/30
América MineiroCuiabá Mon 23:30 · Serie BRef Jodis Nascimento de Souza · 6.3 cards/match · ×1.13	Over 4.5 Match cards	1.83 55%	52%1.92	-5%	4.9ref +0.6	50%5/10	50%10/20	57%17/30
Dinamo ZagrebRijeka Tue 18:00 · 1. HNLRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	52%1.92	–	3.8	50%5/10	50%10/20	50%15/30
CoritibaGrêmio Mon 23:30 · Serie ARef Ramon Abatti · 5.2 cards/match · ×1.15	Over 5.5 Match cards	1.72 58%	52%1.93	-11%	5.7ref +0.7	50%5/10	50%10/20	50%15/30
SevillaOsasuna Mon 21:00 · La LigaRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	51%1.98	–	4.7	60%6/10	50%10/20	40%12/30
Thể Công-ViettelSeoul Wed 13:15 · AFC Champions League TwoRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	50%2.00	–	4.7	50%5/10	50%10/20	57%17/30
MantovaCremonese Tue 20:00 · Serie BRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	49%2.06	–	4.6	50%5/10	50%10/20	53%16/30

AldosiviBelgrano
Sun 18:45 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Ref Sebastían Zunino · 5.9 cards/match · ×1.15
1.66
+5%
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.9 · Model 63%
L580%8/10L1080%16/20L1570%21/30
JuventudeNáutico
Tue 00:30 · Serie B
Ref Bruno Mota Correia · 7.4 cards/match · ×1.15
1.66
0%
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.5 · Model 60%
L560%6/10L1075%15/20L1573%22/30
EstorilMoreirense
Sun 16:30 · Liga Portugal
Ref Carlos André Fernandes Macedo · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.87
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L5100%10/10L1075%15/20L1573%22/30
FC AndorraBurgos
Mon 20:30 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.1 · Model 40%
L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1570%21/30
KeçiörengücüBursaspor
Sun 17:00 · 1. Lig
Ref Emre Kargın · 5.0 cards/match · ×1.03
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.0 · Model 56%
L575%6/8L1069%9/13L1561%11/18
Sarpsborg 08Aalesund
Sun 17:00 · Eliteserien
Ref Mischa Huru Kellerhals · 3.2 cards/match · ×0.92
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.7 · Model 50%
L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1557%17/30
Benfica U19Pafos U19
Wed 17:00 · UEFA Youth League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.5 · Model 48%
L570%7/10L1064%9/14L1564%9/14
Al JaziraMuharraq
Wed 17:00 · AFC Champions League Two
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.3 · Model 43%
L570%7/10L1063%10/16L1567%14/21
River PlateRacing Club
Sun 23:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Ref Leandro Rey Hilfer · 5.0 cards/match · ×1.13
1.61
+1%
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.7 · Model 63%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
SC FreiburgVfL Wolfsburg
Wed 18:00 · DFB Pokal
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 57%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
Halifax TownBarrow
Tue 20:45 · Enterprise National League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L540%4/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
Olympique MarseilleLe Havre
Sun 17:15 · Ligue 1
Ref Clément Turpin · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.89
1.66
-13%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.6 · Model 52%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
CastellónSporting Gijón
Sun 18:30 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.1 · Model 41%
L540%4/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
WealdstoneSolihull Moors
Tue 20:45 · Enterprise National League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 57%
L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1567%20/30
RosenborgHamKam
Wed 18:00
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
AIKElfsborg
Tue 19:00 · Allsvenskan
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1560%18/30
FC BarcelonaReal Madrid
Sun 21:00 · La Liga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 54%
L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30
BaselGrasshopper
Sun 16:30 · Super League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 53%
L570%7/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30
Kawkab MarrakechDifaâ El Jadida
Sun 19:00 · Botola Pro
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 51%
L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1547%14/30
QuerétaroCruz Azul
Mon 02:00 · Liga MX
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 50%
L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
RennesStrasbourg
Sun 17:15 · Ligue 1
Ref Ruddy Buquet · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.85
1.61
-20%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.3 · Model 50%
L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
Al Shamal SCAl Hilal
Tue 19:15 · AFC Champions League Elite
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.6 · Model 49%
L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
Unión Santa FeEstudiantes
Mon 23:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Ref Pablo Dóvalo · 5.2 cards/match · ×1.15
2.20
+8%
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 6.0 · Model 49%
L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
Legia WarszawaLech Poznań
Sun 17:30 · Ekstraklasa
Ref Szymon Marciniak · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.89
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.6 · Model 49%
L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
RFC LiègePatro Eisden Maasmechelen
Sun 19:15 · Challenger Pro League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.5 · Model 47%
L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
KristiansundKFUM
Sun 17:00 · Eliteserien
Ref Svein Tore Sinnes · 3.3 cards/match · ×0.85
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.5 · Model 46%
L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
Lokomotiv PlovdivSlavia Sofia
Mon 16:00 · First League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.4 · Model 45%
L570%7/10L1055%11/20L1547%14/30
Rio AveFamalicão
Sun 19:00 · Liga Portugal
Ref Hélder Carvalho · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.90
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.2 · Model 42%
L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1563%19/30
Fleetwood TownArsenal
Tue 21:00 · Carabao Cup
Ref Michael Salisbury · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.95
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.2 · Model 40%
L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1543%13/30
Mardin BBManisa FK
Mon 18:00 · 1. Lig
Ref Hakan Ülker · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.03
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.2 · Model 42%
L563%5/8L1054%7/13L1550%9/18
Barracas CentralEstudiantes de Río Cuarto
Mon 01:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Ref Andrés Merlos · 5.8 cards/match · ×1.15
1.83
+6%
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.6 · Model 58%
L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
Volos NFCPanathinaikos
Sun 17:00 · Super League
Ref Konstantinos Tsetsilas · no history
1.66
-6%
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.1 · Model 57%
L530%3/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
SC FreiburgFC Bayern München
Sun 17:30 · Bundesliga
Ref Felix Zwayer · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.09
1.80
0%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.2 · Model 55%
L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
Al-QadsiahAl Sadd
Mon 19:15 · AFC Champions League Elite
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
Central Cordoba SdEVélez Sarsfield
Mon 01:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Ref Pablo Echavarría · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.06
1.90
+4%
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.3 · Model 55%
L580%8/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
OuluVPS
Wed 17:00 · Veikkausliiga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
Bradford CityPeterborough United
Tue 20:45 · Carabao Cup
Ref Thomas Kirk · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.01
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 54%
L530%3/10L1050%10/20L1560%18/30
ToulouseTroyes
Sun 17:15 · Ligue 1
Ref Geoffrey Kubler · 4.7 cards/match · ×1.06
1.83
-2%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 54%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
Kashima AntlersPohang Steelers
Wed 11:00 · AFC Champions League Elite
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1548%13/27
MontpellierRed Star
Mon 20:45 · Ligue 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
CesenaEmpoli
Tue 20:00 · Serie B
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1557%17/30
SionLausanne Sport
Sun 16:30 · Super League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 53%
L580%8/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
Kyoto SangaNewcastle Jets
Tue 11:00 · AFC Champions League Elite
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
L530%3/10L1050%10/20L1548%13/27
Angers SCOLorient
Sun 17:15 · Ligue 1
Ref Azzedine Souifi · 4.2 cards/match · ×0.98
1.83
-4%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 53%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
América MineiroCuiabá
Mon 23:30 · Serie B
Ref Jodis Nascimento de Souza · 6.3 cards/match · ×1.13
1.83
-5%
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.9 · Model 52%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1557%17/30
Dinamo ZagrebRijeka
Tue 18:00 · 1. HNL
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 52%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
CoritibaGrêmio
Mon 23:30 · Serie A
Ref Ramon Abatti · 5.2 cards/match · ×1.15
1.72
-11%
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.7 · Model 52%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
SevillaOsasuna
Mon 21:00 · La Liga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
Thể Công-ViettelSeoul
Wed 13:15 · AFC Champions League Two
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 50%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1557%17/30
MantovaCremonese
Tue 20:00 · Serie B
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.6 · Model 49%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30

Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 25 Oct, 17:17.

Referees this week — strictest first

Referee	Matches	Cards / match	Effect	Next match	Exp. cards
Anderson Daronco	57	5.2	×1.15	BahiavSão PauloThu 01:30 · Serie A	5.1 → 5.8
Esteban Ostojich	51	6.1	×1.15	Montevideo City TorquevCerroSun 17:00 · Primera Division	5.6 → 6.4
Darío Herrera	47	6.2	×1.15	Argentinos JuniorsvIndependiente RivadaviaTue 23:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.1 → 5.9
Flavio Rodrigues De Souza	45	5.9	×1.15	SantosvPalmeirasWed 23:30 · Serie A	4.9 → 5.7
Halil Umut Meler	43	5.7	×1.15	RizesporvTrabzonsporMon 17:00 · Super Lig	4.5 → 5.2
Bruno Arleu de Araujo	43	5.6	×1.15	Vasco da GamavFlamengoFri 00:00 · Serie A	5.0 → 5.8
Gustavo Tejera	42	5.1	×1.15	NacionalvLiverpoolSun 23:30 · Primera Division	5.7 → 6.6
Ramon Abatti	41	5.2	×1.15	CoritibavGrêmioMon 23:30 · Serie A	4.9 → 5.7
Alex Gomes Stefano	38	5.6	×1.15	GrêmiovAthletico PRFri 01:30 · Serie A	5.4 → 6.2
Stuart Attwell	37	5.2	×1.15	SunderlandvLeeds UnitedSun 17:30 · Premier League	4.2 → 4.8
Sebastían Zunino	37	5.9	×1.15	AldosivivBelgranoSun 18:45 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.2 → 5.9
Hernán Heras	37	6.6	×1.15	Cerro LargovBoston RiverSun 20:00 · Primera Division	5.0 → 5.8
Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes	36	5.4	×1.15	BragantinovChapecoenseWed 23:30 · Serie A	4.5 → 5.2
Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima	35	5.6	×1.15	FlamengovAtlético MineiroTue 00:00 · Serie A	4.9 → 5.6
Lucas Paulo Torezin	35	5.7	×1.15	RemovBotafogoThu 01:30 · Serie A	4.6 → 5.3
Nazareno Arasa	34	5.7	×1.15	IndependientevBoca JuniorsSun 21:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.0 → 5.8
Carlos Andrés Gariano	33	5.7	×1.15	InstitutovDeportivo RiestraTue 01:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.8 → 5.5
Andrés Merlos	32	5.8	×1.15	Barracas CentralvEstudiantes de Río CuartoMon 01:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.8 → 5.6
Atilla Karaoğlan	32	5.8	×1.15	GalatasarayvFenerbahçeMon 19:30 · Super Lig	4.4 → 5.0
Pablo Dóvalo	27	5.2	×1.15	Unión Santa FevEstudiantesMon 23:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.3 → 6.0
Fabio Maresca	23	5.4	×1.15	LeccevJuventusSun 18:00 · Serie A	3.6 → 4.1
Christos Vergetis	23	5.3	×1.15	OFIvPAOKSun 19:00 · Super League	4.8 → 5.5
José Armando Torres Bessa	14	8.1	×1.15	NacionalvSporting BragaSun 19:00 · Liga Portugal	4.9 → 5.6
Ümit Öztürk	14	5.6	×1.15	Beşiktaşvİstanbul BaşakşehirMon 17:00 · Super Lig	4.5 → 5.2
Stavros Tsimenteridis	13	5.6	×1.15	ArisvAtromitosSun 18:30 · Super League	4.7 → 5.4
Bruno Mota Correia	5	7.4	×1.15	JuventudevNáuticoTue 00:30 · Serie B	4.8 → 5.5
Patrik Kolarić	26	5.1	×1.14	Istra 1961vHajduk SplitMon 18:00 · 1. HNL	4.0 → 4.6
Leandro Rey Hilfer	41	5.0	×1.13	River PlatevRacing ClubSun 23:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.0 → 5.7
Jodis Nascimento de Souza	4	6.3	×1.13	América MineirovCuiabáMon 23:30 · Serie B	4.3 → 4.9
Andy Madley	8	5.5	×1.13	Manchester CityvBrighton & Hove AlbionWed 20:30 · Carabao Cup	3.6 → 4.0
Matheus Delgado Candançan	36	4.9	×1.12	CorinthiansvMirassolSat 00:00 · Serie A	4.9 → 5.5
Jérôme Brisard	31	4.9	×1.11	Paris Saint GermainvOlympique LyonnaisSun 20:45 · Ligue 1	3.7 → 4.1
Miguel Bertolo Nogueira	22	5.0	×1.11	Sporting CPvAcademico ViseuSun 21:30 · Liga Portugal	4.5 → 5.1
Lucas Casagrande	37	4.9	×1.11	FluminensevInternacionalWed 23:30 · Serie A	5.1 → 5.6
Wesli De Cremer	20	5.0	×1.10	Union Saint-GilloisevCercle BruggeSun 19:15 · Pro League	3.8 → 4.2
Cláudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira	8	5.3	×1.10	Santa ClaravBenficaMon 19:45 · Liga Portugal	5.2 → 5.7
Felix Zwayer	51	4.8	×1.09	SC FreiburgvFC Bayern MünchenSun 17:30 · Bundesliga	3.8 → 4.2
Mohammad Usman Aslam	23	4.8	×1.09	LillestrømvBrannSun 17:00 · Eliteserien	4.2 → 4.5
Geoffrey Kubler	23	4.7	×1.06	ToulousevTroyesSun 17:15 · Ligue 1	3.8 → 4.0
Pablo Echavarría	27	4.6	×1.06	Central Cordoba SdEvVélez SarsfieldMon 01:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.0 → 5.3

How the Card Model Works

Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.

Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.

Using Card Stats for Betting

Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.

Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.