Card Statistics
Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.
Card Screener
Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price next to bet365 where the odds are in.
| Line | Odds | L15 | Last 10 · home / away | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ref Mateo Tozan · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.97 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 59%1.71 | – | 5.2ref −0.1 | 83%5/6 | 83%5/6 | 83%5/6 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 52%1.92 | – | 4.8 | 83%5/6 | 83%5/6 | 83%5/6 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 52%1.93 | – | 4.8 | 80%8/10 | 82%14/17 | 82%14/17 | |
| Ref Alex Gomes Stefano · 5.3 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.61 62% | 67%1.50 | +7% | 5.2ref +0.7 | 80%8/10 | 80%16/20 | 73%22/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 58%1.74 | – | 5.1 | 80%8/10 | 75%12/16 | 75%12/16 | |
| Ref Joe Dickerson · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.11 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 61%1.65 | +1% | 4.5ref +0.5 | 60%6/10 | 70%14/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref Hélder Carvalho · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.89 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 59%1.70 | – | 4.1ref −0.5 | 80%8/10 | 70%14/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref Paulo Cesar Zanovelli · 5.6 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 50%2.00 | – | 5.7ref +0.7 | 50%5/10 | 70%14/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 58%1.71 | – | 4.1 | 63%5/8 | 69%9/13 | 72%13/18 | |
| Ref Jacob Karlsen · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.85 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 41%2.45 | – | 4.2ref −0.7 | 67%4/6 | 67%4/6 | 67%4/6 | |
| Ref Valerio Crezzini · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.95 | Over 2.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 60%1.65 | +4% | 3.5ref −0.2 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 60%1.68 | – | 4.2 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref Samuel Allison · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.97 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 59%1.69 | – | 4.1ref −0.1 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 67%20/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 57%1.76 | – | 4.0 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref Dámaso Arcediano Monescillo · 6.0 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 5.5 Match cards | 1.80 56% | 56%1.80 | 0% | 6.3ref +0.8 | 80%8/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.90 53% | 55%1.80 | +5% | 4.3 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref Álvaro Carranza · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.05 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 55%1.83 | -9% | 4.9ref +0.2 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 47%14/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.86 | – | 3.9 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref Alejandro Morilla Turrión · 5.1 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 5.5 Match cards | 1.90 53% | 53%1.90 | 0% | 6.1ref +0.8 | 90%9/10 | 65%13/20 | 47%14/30 | |
| Ref J. Ordelmans · 1.8 cards/match · ×0.85 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 52%1.92 | – | 3.8ref −0.7 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref David Webb · 2.9 cards/match · ×0.85 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 50%2.00 | – | 3.7ref −0.6 | 80%8/10 | 65%13/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.05 | – | 4.6 | 56%5/9 | 64%9/14 | 58%11/19 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 52%1.92 | – | 3.8 | 63%5/8 | 62%8/13 | 61%11/18 | |
| Ref Arnes Talic · 4.5 cards/match · ×1.06 | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 46%2.17 | – | 5.4ref +0.3 | 75%6/8 | 62%8/13 | 57%8/14 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 58%1.74 | – | 5.1 | 60%6/10 | 61%11/18 | 61%11/18 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 57%1.76 | – | 4.0 | 50%5/10 | 61%11/18 | 57%13/23 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.78 | – | 5.0 | 70%7/10 | 61%11/18 | 57%12/21 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 48%2.09 | – | 4.5 | 60%6/10 | 61%11/18 | 57%13/23 | |
| Ref Sebastián Nicolás Martínez · 6.2 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 58%1.72 | 0% | 5.4ref +0.7 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 58%1.72 | – | 4.1 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 58%1.72 | – | 4.1 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.90 | – | 3.8 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 52%1.91 | – | 4.8 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.98 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 47%2.14 | – | 4.5ref −0.1 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 43%2.33 | – | 4.3 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 43%13/30 | |
| Ref Martin Velikov · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.88 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 51%1.96 | – | 3.7ref −0.5 | 50%4/8 | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.86 | – | 4.9 | 63%5/8 | 58%7/12 | 58%7/12 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 52%1.93 | – | 4.8 | 50%5/10 | 56%10/18 | 61%14/23 | |
| Ref Fotis Polychronis · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.11 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 57%1.75 | – | 5.1ref +0.5 | 70%7/10 | 56%9/16 | 56%9/16 | |
| Ref Christos Vergetis · 5.0 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 5.5 Match cards | 2.00 50% | 45%2.21 | -9% | 5.3ref +0.7 | 40%4/10 | 56%9/16 | 56%9/16 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.04 | – | 4.6 | 56%5/9 | 56%5/9 | 56%5/9 | |
| Ref Gonzalo Romero Freixas · 5.3 cards/match · ×1.11 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 59%1.69 | -2% | 5.4ref +0.5 | 70%7/10 | 55%11/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 59%1.70 | – | 4.1 | 50%5/10 | 55%11/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref Vasil Minev · 4.4 cards/match · ×1.04 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 59%1.71 | – | 5.2ref +0.2 | 50%5/10 | 55%11/20 | 50%15/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 58%1.71 | – | 4.1 | 60%6/10 | 55%11/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 58%1.71 | – | 4.1 | 60%6/10 | 55%11/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 58%1.72 | – | 4.1 | 40%4/10 | 55%11/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 58%1.72 | – | 4.1 | 50%5/10 | 55%11/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref John Brooks · 5.3 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 57%1.74 | -1% | 5.3ref +0.7 | 70%7/10 | 55%11/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.80 | – | 3.9 | 50%5/10 | 55%11/20 | 63%17/27 |
LASK UEFA U19new team
Slovan Bratislava U19new teamTue 15:00 · UEFA Youth LeagueRef Mateo Tozan · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.97––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.2 · Model 59%L583%5/6L1083%5/6L1583%5/6

- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 52%L583%5/6L1083%5/6L1583%5/6


Slavia Prague U19limited data
Arsenal U19limited dataWed 14:00 · UEFA Youth LeagueRef: not assigned yet––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 52%L580%8/10L1082%14/17L1582%14/17

- 1.61+7%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 5.2 · Model 67%L580%8/10L1080%16/20L1573%22/30


- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.1 · Model 58%L580%8/10L1075%12/16L1575%12/16


Los Angeles FC
Minnesota UnitedMon 02:30 · Major League SoccerRef Joe Dickerson · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.111.66+1%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.5 · Model 61%L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30

- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.1 · Model 59%L580%8/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30


- ––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.7 · Model 50%L550%5/10L1070%14/20L1553%16/30


- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.1 · Model 58%L563%5/8L1069%9/13L1572%13/18


Manchester United U19new team
Roma U19new teamTue 14:00 · UEFA Youth LeagueRef Jacob Karlsen · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.85––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.2 · Model 41%L567%4/6L1067%4/6L1567%4/6

- 1.72+4%Over 2.5 Match cardsExp 3.5 · Model 60%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30


- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.2 · Model 60%L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30


- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.1 · Model 59%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1567%20/30


- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 57%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1557%17/30


Real Valladolid
LeganésMon 18:30 · La Liga 2Ref Dámaso Arcediano Monescillo · 6.0 cards/match · ×1.151.800%Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 6.3 · Model 56%L580%8/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30

- 1.90+5%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.3 · Model 55%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1557%17/30


Independiente Rivadavia
BanfieldTue 01:15 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef Álvaro Carranza · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.051.66-9%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 55%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1547%14/30

- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.9 · Model 54%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30


- 1.900%Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 6.1 · Model 53%L590%9/10L1065%13/20L1547%14/30


- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.8 · Model 52%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30


- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.7 · Model 50%L580%8/10L1065%13/20L1553%16/30


- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.6 · Model 49%L556%5/9L1064%9/14L1558%11/19


- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.8 · Model 52%L563%5/8L1062%8/13L1561%11/18


Shakhtar Donetsk U19new team
Sporting CP U19Tue 13:00 · UEFA Youth LeagueRef Arnes Talic · 4.5 cards/match · ×1.06––Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.4 · Model 46%L575%6/8L1062%8/13L1557%8/14

Borussia Dortmund U19limited data
Real Betis U19limited dataWed 16:00 · UEFA Youth LeagueRef: not assigned yet––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.1 · Model 58%L560%6/10L1061%11/18L1561%11/18

- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.0 · Model 57%L550%5/10L1061%11/18L1557%13/23


- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.0 · Model 56%L570%7/10L1061%11/18L1557%12/21


- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.5 · Model 48%L560%6/10L1061%11/18L1557%13/23


Defensa y Justicia
IndependienteMon 23:00 · Liga Profesional de FútbolRef Sebastián Nicolás Martínez · 6.2 cards/match · ×1.151.720%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.4 · Model 58%L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30

- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.1 · Model 58%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30


- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.1 · Model 58%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30


- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.8 · Model 53%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30


- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 52%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30


- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.5 · Model 47%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30


- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.3 · Model 43%L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1543%13/30


Bodø / Glimt U19limited data
Lille U19new teamTue 11:00 · UEFA Youth LeagueRef Martin Velikov · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.88––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.7 · Model 51%L550%4/8L1060%6/10L1560%6/10

- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 54%L563%5/8L1058%7/12L1558%7/12


- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.8 · Model 52%L550%5/10L1056%10/18L1561%14/23


Barcelona U19limited data
Aston Villa U19limited dataTue 16:00 · UEFA Youth LeagueRef Fotis Polychronis · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.11––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.1 · Model 57%L570%7/10L1056%9/16L1556%9/16

Kalamatalimited data
Iraklislimited dataMon 18:30 · Super LeagueRef Christos Vergetis · 5.0 cards/match · ×1.152.00-9%Over 5.5 Match cardsExp 5.3 · Model 45%L540%4/10L1056%9/16L1556%9/16

- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.6 · Model 49%L556%5/9L1056%5/9L1556%5/9


- 1.66-2%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.4 · Model 59%L570%7/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30


- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.1 · Model 59%L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30


- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.2 · Model 59%L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30


- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.1 · Model 58%L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30


- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.1 · Model 58%L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30


- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.1 · Model 58%L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1560%18/30


- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.1 · Model 58%L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30


- 1.72-1%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.3 · Model 57%L570%7/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30


- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.9 · Model 56%L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1563%17/27


Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1: the model’s view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 1 Nov, 23:17.
Referees this week — strictest first
| Referee | Cards / match | Effect | Next match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrés Matonte | 6.0 | ×1.15 | |
| Yael Falcón Pérez | 5.6 | ×1.15 | |
| Wilton Pereira Sampaio | 5.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Bruno Arleu de Araujo | 5.5 | ×1.15 | |
| Alex Gomes Stefano | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Paulo Cesar Zanovelli | 5.6 | ×1.15 | |
| Ramon Abatti | 5.1 | ×1.15 | |
| Felipe Fernandes de Lima | 5.4 | ×1.15 | |
| Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Fillho | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Lucas Paulo Torezin | 5.4 | ×1.15 | |
| Sebastián Nicolás Martínez | 6.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Edina Alves Batista | 5.8 | ×1.15 | |
| Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández | 6.7 | ×1.15 | |
| John Brooks | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Alejandro Morilla Turrión | 5.1 | ×1.15 | |
| Christos Vergetis | 5.0 | ×1.15 | |
| Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle | 6.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Dámaso Arcediano Monescillo | 6.0 | ×1.15 | |
| Alexandros Katsikogiannis | 6.1 | ×1.15 | |
| Kamal Umudlu | 6.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Mathías De Armas | 4.9 | ×1.15 | |
| Yiğit Arslan | 5.0 | ×1.13 | |
| Pablo Dóvalo | 4.9 | ×1.13 | |
| Damian Kos | 4.9 | ×1.13 | |
| Mathieu Vernice | 4.8 | ×1.12 | |
| Daniel Quintero Huittrón | 4.8 | ×1.12 | |
| Joe Dickerson | 4.8 | ×1.11 | |
| Fatih Tokail | 4.8 | ×1.11 | |
| Fotis Polychronis | 4.8 | ×1.11 | |
| Gonzalo Romero Freixas | 5.3 | ×1.11 | |
| Matt Donohue | 4.7 | ×1.10 | |
| Lucas Casagrande | 4.6 | ×1.10 | |
| Jon Ander González Esteban | 4.7 | ×1.10 | |
| Rodrigo Pereira | 4.8 | ×1.09 | |
| Drew Fischer | 4.6 | ×1.08 | |
| Rafael Rodrigo Klein | 4.5 | ×1.08 | |
| Carl Brook | 4.5 | ×1.08 | |
| Oleksandr Shandor | 4.6 | ×1.07 | |
| Joshua Smith | 4.5 | ×1.07 | |
| Jérémie Pignard | 4.5 | ×1.07 |
How the Card Model Works
Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.
Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.
Using Card Stats for Betting
Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.
Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.
Related stats
- Corner stats screenerCorner lines and hit rates by fixture
- Player prop screenerShots, fouls, tackles and cards by player
- Over/under goals screenerGoal-line hit rates for every upcoming match
- Mathematical football predictionsThis week's model probabilities for every match
- Football stats explainedWhat each number means and how to bet on it