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Card Statistics

Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.

Card Screener

Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price next to bet365 where the odds are in.

Smart views
198 matches · best line per match
  • Lens U19new teamComo U19new team
    Wed 14:00 · UEFA Youth League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.8 · Model 53%
    L583%5/6L1083%5/6L1583%5/6
  • Slavia Prague U19limited dataArsenal U19limited data
    Wed 14:00 · UEFA Youth League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.9 · Model 54%
    L580%8/10L1082%14/17L1582%14/17
  • Athletic ClubCeará
    Mon 22:00 · Serie B
    Ref Alex Gomes Stefano · 5.4 cards/match · ×1.15
    1.61
    +8%
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.2 · Model 67%
    L580%8/10L1080%16/20L1573%22/30
  • PAOKAsteras Tripolis
    Sun 18:00 · Super League
    Ref Michalis Matsoukas · 5.6 cards/match · ×1.15
    1.90
    +11%
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.8 · Model 58%
    L560%6/10L1075%15/20L1557%17/30
  • Los Angeles FCMinnesota United
    Mon 02:30 · Major League Soccer
    Ref Joe Dickerson · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.11
    1.66
    +1%
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.5 · Model 61%
    L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
  • Atlanta UnitedToronto
    Sun 22:30 · Major League Soccer
    Ref Filip Dujic · 4.2 cards/match · ×1.00
    1.61
    -3%
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.3 · Model 60%
    L580%8/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
  • Manchester United U19new teamRoma U19new team
    Tue 14:00 · UEFA Youth League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.9 · Model 55%
    L567%4/6L1067%4/6L1567%4/6
  • LASK UEFA U19new teamSlovan Bratislava U19new team
    Tue 15:00 · UEFA Youth League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 5.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.4 · Model 45%
    L567%4/6L1067%4/6L1567%4/6
  • AtalantaParma
    Mon 20:45 · Serie A
    Ref Valerio Crezzini · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.94
    1.61
    +1%
    Over 2.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.5 · Model 63%
    L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
  • Olympique MarseilleToulouse
    Sun 20:45 · Ligue 1
    Ref Hakim Ben El Hadj · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.02
    1.66
    -2%
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.3 · Model 59%
    L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
  • Independiente RivadaviaBanfield
    Tue 01:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
    Ref Álvaro Carranza · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.06
    1.66
    -8%
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.9 · Model 55%
    L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1547%14/30
  • Inter TurkuGnistan
    Mon 17:00 · Veikkausliiga
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
    L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
  • Brøndby IFAGF
    Sun 18:00 · Superliga
    Ref Sandi Putros · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.92
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.9 · Model 54%
    L550%5/10L1065%13/20L1567%20/30
  • Jong AjaxVitesse
    Mon 20:00 · Eerste Divisie
    Ref J. Ordelmans · 1.8 cards/match · ×0.85
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.8 · Model 52%
    L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
  • Birmingham CityMillwall
    Tue 21:00 · Championship
    Ref David Webb · 2.9 cards/match · ×0.85
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.7 · Model 51%
    L580%8/10L1065%13/20L1553%16/30
  • Real ValladolidLeganés
    Mon 18:30 · La Liga 2
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 5.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.6 · Model 49%
    L580%8/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
  • Real OviedoLas Palmas
    Mon 16:15 · La Liga 2
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 5.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.3 · Model 44%
    L590%9/10L1065%13/20L1547%14/30
  • Lokomotiva ZagrebOsijek
    Sun 18:00 · 1. HNL
    Ref Marko Crnojević · 2.5 cards/match · ×0.93
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.2 · Model 41%
    L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
  • Gil VicenteVitória Guimarães
    Mon 21:15 · Liga Portugal
    Ref Hélder Carvalho · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.88
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.1 · Model 40%
    L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1553%16/30
  • Spartak KostromaVolna Koverninonew team
    Tue 17:30 · Russian Cup
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
    L556%5/9L1064%9/14L1558%11/19
  • Port FCnew teamBeijing Guoan
    Tue 13:15 · AFC Champions League Elite
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
    L563%5/8L1062%8/13L1561%11/18
  • Shakhtar Donetsk U19new teamSporting CP U19
    Tue 13:00 · UEFA Youth League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 5.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.3 · Model 43%
    L575%6/8L1062%8/13L1557%8/14
  • Hapoel Ramat Ganlimited dataMaccabi Tel Aviv
    Mon 19:00 · Ligat ha'Al
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.6 · Model 49%
    L560%6/10L1061%11/18L1557%13/23
  • Defensa y JusticiaIndependiente
    Mon 23:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
    Ref Sebastián Nicolás Martínez · 6.2 cards/match · ×1.15
    1.72
    +1%
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.5 · Model 59%
    L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
  • Hapoel Tel AvivMaccabi Haifa
    Mon 19:30 · Ligat ha'Al
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.9 · Model 54%
    L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
  • Nashville SCNew York RB
    Sun 22:30 · Major League Soccer
    Ref Sergii Demianchuk · 4.4 cards/match · ×1.03
    2.10
    +6%
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.0 · Model 50%
    L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
  • BenficaAlverca
    Mon 21:15 · Liga Portugal
    Ref Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa · 4.2 cards/match · ×0.99
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.6 · Model 49%
    L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
  • Racing SantanderReal Madrid
    Sun 16:15 · La Liga
    Ref José Luis Munuera Montero · 4.1 cards/match · ×0.97
    2.00
    -6%
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.6 · Model 47%
    L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
  • FC BarcelonaAston Villa
    Tue 21:00 · Champions League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.3 · Model 43%
    L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1543%13/30
  • FC BarcelonaAston Villa
    Tue 21:00 · Champions League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.3 · Model 43%
    L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1543%13/30
  • Lokomotiv MoskvaSpartak Moskva
    Sun 17:45 · Premier League
    Ref Artem Chistyakov · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.89
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.3 · Model 43%
    L540%4/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
  • Fenerbahçe U19new teamLiverpool U19limited data
    Wed 12:00 · UEFA Youth League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.9 · Model 54%
    L563%5/8L1058%7/12L1558%7/12
  • Borussia Dortmund U19limited dataReal Betis U19limited data
    Wed 16:00 · UEFA Youth League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 5.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.3 · Model 43%
    L560%6/10L1056%10/18L1556%10/18
  • Barcelona U19limited dataAston Villa U19limited data
    Tue 16:00 · UEFA Youth League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
    L570%7/10L1056%9/16L1556%9/16
  • KAS EupenExcelsior Virtonlimited data
    Sun 19:15 · Challenger Pro League
    Ref Jasper Vitse · 3.1 cards/match · ×0.85
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.7 · Model 50%
    L570%7/10L1056%9/16L1548%10/21
  • Kalamatalimited dataIraklislimited data
    Mon 18:30 · Super League
    Ref Christos Vergetis · 5.1 cards/match · ×1.15
    2.00
    -8%
    Over 5.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.5 · Model 46%
    L540%4/10L1056%9/16L1556%9/16
  • Pafos U19limited dataBenfica U19
    Wed 13:00 · UEFA Youth League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 5.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.2 · Model 41%
    L570%7/10L1056%9/16L1556%9/16
  • PAOK U19limited dataZrinjski U19new team
    Wed 14:30 · UEFA Youth League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.7 · Model 50%
    L556%5/9L1056%5/9L1556%5/9
  • Eintracht FrankfurtHamburger SV
    Sun 17:30 · Bundesliga
    Ref Florian Exner · 5.7 cards/match · ×1.15
    1.66
    +2%
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.5 · Model 61%
    L570%7/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30
  • Newcastle UnitedEverton
    Mon 21:00 · Premier League
    Ref John Brooks · 5.4 cards/match · ×1.15
    1.72
    0%
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.4 · Model 58%
    L570%7/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30
  • Västerås SKBrommapojkarna
    Sun 16:30 · Allsvenskan
    Ref Adam Ladebäck · 3.1 cards/match · ×0.85
    –
    –
    Over 2.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.0 · Model 57%
    L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1560%18/30
  • VoluntariFarul Constanța
    Mon 16:30 · Superliga
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
    L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1563%17/27
  • VPSHJK
    Mon 17:00 · Veikkausliiga
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
    L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
  • MallorcaCádiz
    Mon 21:00 · La Liga 2
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.9 · Model 54%
    L570%7/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
  • Universitatea CraiovaBotoşani
    Sun 16:30 · Superliga
    Ref Gabriel Mihuleac · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.95
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.8 · Model 52%
    L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1563%19/30
  • LondrinaAmérica Mineiro
    Sun 20:00 · Serie B
    Ref Daiane Caroline Muniz dos Santos · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.92
    1.80
    -10%
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.6 · Model 50%
    L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1543%13/30
  • Zagłębie LubinKorona Kielce
    Mon 18:00 · Ekstraklasa
    Ref Piotr Lasyk · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.86
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.6 · Model 48%
    L570%7/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
  • Blackburn RoversStoke City
    Tue 20:45 · Championship
    Ref Andrew Kitchen · 3.2 cards/match · ×0.85
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.5 · Model 45%
    L530%3/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
  • KayserisporMuğlaspor
    Mon 18:00 · 1. Lig
    Ref Yiğit Arslan · 5.0 cards/match · ×1.12
    –
    –
    Over 5.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.3 · Model 44%
    L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1544%12/27
  • MjällbyKalmar
    Mon 19:00 · Allsvenskan
    Ref Richard Sundell · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.88
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.3 · Model 41%
    L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1547%14/30

Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1: the model’s view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 1 Nov, 15:17.

Referees this week — strictest first

RefereeCards / matchEffectNext match
Anderson Daronco5.2×1.15PalmeirasvVasco da Gama · Copa do Brasil
Andrés Matonte6.1×1.15AlbionvDeportivo Maldonado · Primera Division
Yael Falcón Pérez5.7×1.15Atlético TucumánvArgentinos Juniors · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Wilton Pereira Sampaio5.3×1.15PalmeirasvRemo · Serie A
Davi de Oliveira Lacerda5.2×1.15GrêmiovAtlético Mineiro · Copa do Brasil
Bruno Arleu de Araujo5.5×1.15FortalezavAtlético GO · Serie B
José Burgos5.3×1.15Boston RivervMontevideo City Torque · Primera Division
Alex Gomes Stefano5.4×1.15Athletic ClubvCeará · Serie B
Ramon Abatti5.2×1.15Athletico PRvVasco da Gama · Serie A
Paulo Cesar Zanovelli5.7×1.15FlamengovGrêmio · Serie A
Hernán Heras6.3×1.15DanubiovNacional · Primera Division
Felipe Fernandes de Lima5.5×1.15GoiásvCRB · Serie B
Nicolás Ramírez6.6×1.15Boca JuniorsvRiver Plate · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Alejandro José Hernández Hernández5.1×1.15Athletic ClubvReal Sociedad · La Liga
Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Fillho5.3×1.15InternacionalvCoritiba · Serie A
Lucas Paulo Torezin5.5×1.15ChapecoensevMirassol · Serie A
André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento5.4×1.15NovorizontinovOperário PR · Serie B
Sebastián Nicolás Martínez6.2×1.15Defensa y JusticiavIndependiente · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Edina Alves Batista6.0×1.15BragantinovSantos · Serie A
João António Ferreira Gonçalves6.1×1.15Academico ViseuvRio Ave · Liga Portugal
Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández6.8×1.15TenerifevFC Andorra · La Liga 2
Alexis Da Silva5.1×1.15Vancouver WhitecapsvSeattle Sounders · Major League Soccer
Kirill Levnikov5.3×1.15Baltika KaliningradvAkron · Premier League
John Brooks5.4×1.15Newcastle UnitedvEverton · Premier League
Florian Exner5.7×1.15Eintracht FrankfurtvHamburger SV · Bundesliga
Lluís Bestard Servera5.7×1.15ElchevValencia · La Liga
Alejandro Ojaos Valera5.6×1.15CeutavSporting Gijón · La Liga 2
Christos Vergetis5.1×1.15KalamatavIraklis · Super League
Paride Tremolada5.8×1.15Hellas VeronavCarrarese · Serie B
David Rafael Oliveira Silva6.3×1.15Sporting BragavFamalicão · Liga Portugal
Fedayi San5.6×1.15Lausanne SportvThun · Super League
Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle6.5×1.15Cruz AzulvLeón · Liga MX
Richard Hempel5.8×1.15FC Union BerlinvFC Köln · Bundesliga
Spiros Zabalas5.4×1.15PanaitolikosvOFI · Super League
Thanasis Tzilos6.1×1.15LevadiakosvAris · Super League
Michalis Matsoukas5.6×1.15PAOKvAsteras Tripolis · Super League
Daniel Zamora6.0×1.15Newell's Old BoysvUnión Santa Fe · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Alexandros Katsikogiannis6.3×1.15AtromitosvVolos NFC · Super League
Johannes von Mandach5.1×1.15LuganovBasel · Super League
Mathías De Armas5.0×1.15LiverpoolvJuventud · Primera Division

How the Card Model Works

Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.

Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.

Using Card Stats for Betting

Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.

Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.