Card Statistics

Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.

Card Screener

Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price next to bet365 where the odds are in.

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469 matches · line closest to even per match

Upcoming matches with recent cards hit rates, model chances and prices
	Line	Odds						L15
HeartsFalkirk Sun 16:00 · PremiershipRef Michael MacDermid · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.08	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.80 56%	62%1.61	+12%	4.9ref +0.4	90%9/10	90%18/20	77%23/30
SC FreiburgFC Union Berlin Sun 17:30 · BundesligaRef Sascha Stegemann · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.99	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.72 58%	56%1.79	-4%	4.1	70%7/10	85%17/20	70%21/30
CórdobaCeuta Sat 18:30 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	55%1.83	–	6.0	100%10/10	85%17/20	63%19/30
ChesterfieldYeovil Town Sat 16:00 · FA CupRef Scott Oldham · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.95	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	60%1.68	–	4.2ref −0.2	90%9/10	80%16/20	77%23/30
GillinghamBarrow Sat 16:00 · FA CupRef Harry Wager · 4.5 cards/match · ×1.07	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	58%1.72	–	5.1ref +0.3	80%8/10	80%16/20	63%19/30
VillarrealGetafe Sun 18:30 · La LigaRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	57%1.75	–	5.1	80%8/10	80%16/20	73%22/30
BurgosCelta de Vigo II Sat 14:00 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	57%1.77	–	5.0	80%8/10	80%16/20	70%19/27
LudogoretsCSKA 1948 Sofia Sat 17:30 · First LeagueRef Martin Velikov · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.91	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	59%1.68	–	4.2ref −0.4	80%8/10	75%15/20	67%20/30
Akhmat GroznyRodina Moskva Sat 14:30 · Premier LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	59%1.70	–	5.2	70%7/10	75%15/20	63%19/30
Las PalmasEldense Sun 18:30 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	57%1.76	–	5.0	70%7/10	75%15/20	60%18/30

HeartsFalkirk
Sun 16:00 · Premiership
Ref Michael MacDermid · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.08
1.80
+12%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.9 · Model 62%
L590%9/10L1090%18/20L1577%23/30
SC FreiburgFC Union Berlin
Sun 17:30 · Bundesliga
Ref Sascha Stegemann · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.99
1.72
-4%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.1 · Model 56%
L570%7/10L1085%17/20L1570%21/30
CórdobaCeuta
Sat 18:30 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 6.0 · Model 55%
L5100%10/10L1085%17/20L1563%19/30
ChesterfieldYeovil Town
Sat 16:00 · FA Cup
Ref Scott Oldham · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.95
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.2 · Model 60%
L590%9/10L1080%16/20L1577%23/30
GillinghamBarrow
Sat 16:00 · FA Cup
Ref Harry Wager · 4.5 cards/match · ×1.07
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.1 · Model 58%
L580%8/10L1080%16/20L1563%19/30
VillarrealGetafe
Sun 18:30 · La Liga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.1 · Model 57%
L580%8/10L1080%16/20L1573%22/30
BurgosCelta de Vigo II
Sat 14:00 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.0 · Model 57%
L580%8/10L1080%16/20L1570%19/27
LudogoretsCSKA 1948 Sofia
Sat 17:30 · First League
Ref Martin Velikov · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.91
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.2 · Model 59%
L580%8/10L1075%15/20L1567%20/30
Akhmat GroznyRodina Moskva
Sat 14:30 · Premier League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.2 · Model 59%
L570%7/10L1075%15/20L1563%19/30
Las PalmasEldense
Sun 18:30 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.0 · Model 57%
L570%7/10L1075%15/20L1560%18/30

Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1: the model’s view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 5 Nov, 19:18.

Referees this week — strictest first

Referee	Matches	Cards / match	Effect	Next match	Exp. cards
Anderson Daronco	71	5.2	×1.15	AvaívSão BernardoSat 20:00 · Serie B	4.1 → 4.7
Facundo Tello Figueroa	67	5.0	×1.15	Gimnasia y Esgrima MendozavIndependiente RivadaviaSat 19:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.4 → 5.1
Wilton Pereira Sampaio	63	5.2	×1.15	PalmeirasvRemoThu 23:30 · Serie A	4.7 → 5.4
Davi de Oliveira Lacerda	62	5.2	×1.15	NovorizontinovFortalezaSat 20:10 · Serie B	4.8 → 5.5
Darío Herrera	61	5.8	×1.15	Barracas CentralvRacing ClubFri 19:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.4 → 5.1
Bruno Arleu de Araujo	58	5.5	×1.15	Vila NovavCriciúmaSun 00:00 · Serie B	4.6 → 5.3
Ramon Abatti	52	5.1	×1.15	Atlético MineirovGrêmioSat 22:00 · Copa do Brasil	4.4 → 5.0
Alex Gomes Stefano	52	5.3	×1.15	NáuticovCRBSun 01:30 · Serie B	4.3 → 4.9
Lawrence Visser	50	4.9	×1.15	OH LeuvenvMechelenSat 18:15 · Pro League	4.3 → 4.9
Sebastían Zunino	47	5.2	×1.15	Boca JuniorsvDefensa y JusticiaSat 21:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.8 → 5.6
Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima	46	5.2	×1.15	VitóriavFluminenseSat 00:00 · Serie A	4.4 → 5.1
Carlos Andrés Gariano	44	5.3	×1.15	Unión Santa FevVélez SarsfieldFri 23:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.7 → 5.4
Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes	44	5.1	×1.15	GoiásvPonte PretaSun 23:15 · Serie B	4.9 → 5.6
Damian Sylwestrzak	43	5.0	×1.15	AZvJuventusThu 21:00 · Europa League	3.8 → 4.4
Luis Lobo Medina	43	5.5	×1.15	Gimnasia La PlatavBelgranoThu 23:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.6 → 5.3
Harm Osmers	42	4.9	×1.15	Borussia DortmundvElversbergSat 15:30 · Bundesliga	4.0 → 4.6
Rosendo Mendoza	42	5.0	×1.15	Chicago FirevColumbus CrewSat 22:00 · Major League Soccer	4.3 → 5.0
Víctor Rivas	42	5.1	×1.15	AustinvPortland TimbersSun 01:00 · Major League Soccer	3.9 → 4.5
Paweł Raczkowski	41	5.4	×1.15	FC MidtjyllandvAjaxThu 18:45 · Europa Conference League	3.9 → 4.5
Radoslav Gidzhenov	41	5.6	×1.15	LillestrømvViktoria PlzeňThu 18:45 · Europa League	4.0 → 4.6
Georgi Kabakov	41	5.3	×1.15	Septemvri SofiavLokomotiv Sofia 1929Fri 16:00 · First League	5.2 → 6.0
Radoslav Gidzhenov	41	5.6	×1.15	Spartak VarnavArdaSun 13:00 · First League	4.5 → 5.2
David Dickinson	40	5.0	×1.15	St. JohnstonevDundeeSat 16:00 · Premiership	4.0 → 4.6
André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento	40	5.4	×1.15	CuiabávJuventudeSun 00:00 · Serie B	4.0 → 4.6
Edina Alves Batista	40	5.7	×1.15	CearávAmérica MineiroSun 23:15 · Serie B	4.3 → 4.9
Stuart Attwell	39	5.0	×1.15	EvertonvCoventry CityFri 21:00 · Premier League	4.1 → 4.7
Mateo Erceg	37	5.0	×1.15	VaraždinvDinamo ZagrebSun 18:00 · 1. HNL	4.3 → 4.9
João António Ferreira Gonçalves	35	5.7	×1.15	Sporting CPvMoreirenseSat 21:30 · Liga Portugal	4.4 → 5.1
Alexis Da Silva	35	4.9	×1.15	Minnesota UnitedvSJ EarthquakesSun 01:00 · Major League Soccer	4.0 → 4.7
Patryk Gryckiewicz	34	4.9	×1.15	Lincoln Red ImpsvHajduk SplitThu 18:45 · Europa Conference League	4.7 → 5.4
Hernán Mastrángelo	33	5.0	×1.15	Rosario CentralvEstudiantes de Río CuartoSat 21:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.6 → 5.3
Bastien Dechepy	33	5.0	×1.15	Le MansvMonacoSun 17:15 · Ligue 1	4.2 → 4.8
Orel Grinfeeld	32	5.0	×1.15	Bayer 04 LeverkusenvOlympique MarseilleThu 21:00 · Europa League	4.2 → 4.8
John Brooks	32	5.3	×1.15	Leeds UnitedvTottenham HotspurSat 13:30 · Premier League	4.2 → 4.8
Jan Beneš	31	5.9	×1.15	Hradec KrálovévSigma OlomoucSat 15:00 · Chance Liga	3.9 → 4.5
Horatiu Fesnic	29	5.1	×1.15	Crystal PalacevTSG HoffenheimThu 18:45 · Europa League	4.2 → 4.8
Gustavo Fernandes Correia	28	5.7	×1.15	FamalicãovAroucaFri 21:45 · Liga Portugal	4.9 → 5.6
Giovanni Ayroldi	27	5.7	×1.15	CagliarivFrosinoneSat 15:00 · Serie A	3.8 → 4.4
Sören Storks	26	5.0	×1.15	VfB StuttgartvWerder BremenSat 18:30 · Bundesliga	3.9 → 4.5
Sam Mulhall	25	5.0	×1.15	BromleyvRotherham UnitedSat 16:00 · FA Cup	4.0 → 4.6

How the Card Model Works

Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.

Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.

Using Card Stats for Betting

Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.

Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.

Card Statistics

Card Screener

Referees this week — strictest first

How the Card Model Works

Using Card Stats for Betting

Related stats