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Match Result Screener

Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and how it compares with the price.

Match Result Screener

Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the Pinnacle price where the match is priced.

Smart views
21 matches · line closest to even per match
  • GoiásPonte Preta
    Sun 23:15 · Serie B
    1.12
    -14%
    Goiás 1X2
    xG 1.8–0.9 · Model 77%
    L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
  • CearáAmérica Mineiro
    Sun 23:15 · Serie B
    1.68
    -13%
    Ceará 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.1 · Model 52%
    L530%3/10L1045%9/20L1550%15/30
  • Central Cordoba SdELanús
    Sun 23:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
    1.81
    -10%
    Lanús 1X2
    xG 1.1–1.4 · Model 50%
    L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
  • QuerétaroPuebla
    Mon 01:00 · Liga MX
    1.85
    -8%
    Querétaro 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 50%
    L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
  • LeónGuadalajara
    Mon 03:10 · Liga MX
    2.07
    -10%
    Guadalajara 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.4 · Model 43%
    L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
  • VelesKAMAZ
    Mon 17:30 · FNL
    –
    –
    Veles 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 43%
    L520%2/10L1040%8/20L1547%14/30
  • HvidovreAarhus Fremad
    Mon 19:00 · First Division
    1.93
    -6%
    Hvidovre 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 49%
    L550%5/10L1045%9/20L1540%12/30
  • KristiansundVålerenga
    Mon 19:00 · Eliteserien
    2.36
    -4%
    Vålerenga 1X2
    xG 1.7–1.8 · Model 41%
    L560%6/10L1045%9/20L1547%14/30
  • BotoşaniOtelul
    Mon 19:00 · Superliga
    2.10
    -6%
    Botoşani 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 45%
    L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1530%9/30
  • SabadellReal Sociedad II
    Mon 20:30 · La Liga 2
    1.74
    -8%
    Sabadell 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 53%
    L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1545%13/29

Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1: the model's view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 8 Nov, 21:17.

Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)

LeagueHomeDrawAway
1. HNL47.5%22.7%29.8%
1. Lig42.5%24.3%33.2%
2. Bundesliga46.3%27.3%26.3%
A-League Men37.8%29.3%32.9%
A-League Women44.1%18.9%37%
Admiral Bundesliga47.4%25.5%27.1%
AFC Champions League Elite45.5%25.4%29.1%
AFC Champions League Two52.1%16.5%31.4%
Africa Cup of Nations46.2%25%28.8%
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications50%21.7%28.3%
Allsvenskan41.6%23.4%35.1%
Botola Pro35.5%34.1%30.4%
Brasileiro Women42.5%26.3%31.1%
Bundesliga45.7%24.7%29.7%
CAF Champions League51%29.1%19.9%
Carabao Cup40.9%18.3%40.9%
Challenger Pro League45.1%21.1%33.7%
Champions League52%16.1%31.9%
Championship43%25.6%31.4%
Chance Liga44.6%21%34.3%
CONCACAF Nations League45.9%10.8%43.2%
Copa Del Rey26.9%10.9%62.2%
Copa do Brasil44.7%30.8%24.5%
Copa Libertadores44.8%26.6%28.6%
Copa Sudamericana44.6%31.8%23.6%
Coppa Italia60%24.4%15.6%
Coupe de France23%26.5%50.5%
DFB Pokal27%11.1%61.9%
Eerste Divisie44.4%21.5%34.1%
Ekstraklasa45.1%25.7%29.3%
Eliteserien50.7%18.8%30.6%
Enterprise National League45.8%20.4%33.8%
Eredivisie39.4%28.5%32.1%
Europa Conference League47.4%23.6%29%
Europa League48.7%18.6%32.7%
FA Cup44.6%17.9%37.5%
First Division38.1%31.5%30.4%
First League43.6%25.8%30.5%
FNL40.4%28.1%31.6%
Indian Super League37.8%31.1%31.1%
J1 League44.8%22.4%32.7%
K League 132.1%34.4%33.5%
KNVB Beker40.4%11%48.6%
La Liga47.5%24.8%27.7%
La Liga 244.9%23.1%32.1%
League One43.8%27.6%28.6%
League Two43.7%27.3%29%
Liga MX43.3%25.5%31.2%
Liga Portugal42.5%26%31.5%
Liga Profesional de Fútbol42%29.3%28.7%
Ligat ha'Al40.9%24.4%34.7%
Ligue 144.9%24%31.2%
Ligue 132%28.7%39.3%
Ligue 238.8%29.8%31.5%
Major League Soccer46.2%25.2%28.5%
Persian Gulf Pro League40.1%35.3%24.6%
Premier League43.2%27.5%29.2%
Premier League40%28.8%31.2%
Premier League40.6%27.8%31.6%
Premier League36%33.5%30.5%
Premier League34.5%35.9%29.5%
Premiership46.2%23.1%30.7%
Primera Division41.2%26%32.9%
Pro League44.4%23.7%32%
Pro League42.8%22.7%34.5%
Russian Cup39.9%29.4%30.8%
Serie A49.1%26.8%24.1%
Serie A41.8%21%37.1%
Serie B45.4%26.9%27.7%
Serie B43.1%29.5%27.4%
Stars League36.6%22.4%41%
Super League42.1%28.1%29.8%
Super League39.6%25.8%34.7%
Super League44.8%26.2%29%
Super Lig45.8%24.9%29.2%
Superliga42.2%26.6%31.3%
Superliga49.2%24.1%26.7%
Taça De Portugal44.5%10.3%45.2%
UAE Pro League37.4%25.8%36.8%
UEFA Nations League38%25.9%36.1%
UEFA Women's Champions League50%19.1%30.9%
UEFA Youth League50%18.1%31.9%
V-League43.6%22.1%34.2%
Veikkausliiga45%26.7%28.3%
WC Qualification Europe46.7%20%33.3%
Women's Super League46.1%19.7%34.2%
World Cup48.1%23.1%28.8%
World Cup Women Qualification Europe46.5%13.9%39.6%
Youth League50%16.2%33.8%

How the Match Result Screener Works

Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the model EV is a small tilt on the price rather than a guess against it — and still the model's view, not a proven betting edge.

Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing an EV: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.

Using It With Other Stats

Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.

Related stats

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