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Match Result Screener

Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and how it compares with the price.

Match Result Screener

Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the Pinnacle price where the match is priced.

Smart views
223 matches · best line per match
  • SalzburgAustria Lustenau
    Sun 14:30 · Admiral Bundesliga
    1.15
    -11%
    Salzburg 1X2
    xG 2.3–1.1 · Model 77%
    L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1560%15/25
  • Wolfsberger ACSturm Graz
    Sun 14:30 · Admiral Bundesliga
    4.31
    +4%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 24%
    L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
  • ExcelsiorFC Twente
    Sun 14:30 · Eredivisie
    4.74
    +4%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.6 · Model 22%
    L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1520%6/30
  • TelstarFC Utrecht
    Sun 14:30 · Eredivisie
    3.21
    +9%
    Telstar 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.5 · Model 34%
    L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1527%8/30
  • FC EmmenFC Den Bosch
    Sun 14:30 · Eerste Divisie
    4.16
    -5%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.9–1.4 · Model 23%
    L530%3/10L1015%3/20L1520%6/30
  • BrannMolde
    Sun 14:30 · Eliteserien
    4.32
    -1%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.7–1.9 · Model 23%
    L510%1/10L1010%2/20L1517%5/30
  • FrosinoneTorino
    Sun 15:00 · Serie A
    2.02
    +1%
    Frosinone 1X2
    xG 2.1–1.3 · Model 50%
    L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1557%17/30
  • SochiUral
    Sun 15:00 · FNL
    2.79
    +1%
    Sochi 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.2 · Model 36%
    L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1543%13/30
  • West Ham WLiverpool W
    Sun 15:00 · Women's Super League
    3.20
    -3%
    West Ham W 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.4 · Model 30%
    L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
  • StrasbourgAuxerre
    Sun 15:00 · Ligue 1
    4.07
    +9%
    Auxerre 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.6 · Model 27%
    L570%7/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
  • Aarhus FremadHillerød
    Sun 15:00 · First Division
    3.77
    0%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.1 · Model 27%
    L530%3/10L1045%9/20L1537%11/30
  • AvellinoPisa
    Sun 15:00 · Serie B
    2.98
    +7%
    Avellino 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 36%
    L510%1/10L1030%6/20L1543%13/30
  • EmpoliJuve Stabia
    Sun 15:00 · Serie B
    3.14
    +3%
    Empoli 1X2
    xG 1.3–1.3 · Model 33%
    L510%1/10L1030%6/20L1530%9/30
  • Inter KashiGoa
    Sun 15:00 · Indian Super League
    4.70
    +8%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.3–1.3 · Model 23%
    L550%5/10L1030%6/20L1533%10/30
  • Brighton WCrystal Palace Wlimited data
    Sun 15:00 · Women's Super League
    1.26
    -14%
    Brighton W 1X2
    xG 1.9–1.2 · Model 68%
    L550%5/10L1029%5/17L1532%7/22
  • Birmingham Wlimited dataTottenham W
    Sun 15:00 · Women's Super League
    4.44
    -3%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.9–1.6 · Model 22%
    L520%2/10L1029%5/17L1523%5/22
  • ArezzoAscoli
    Sun 15:00 · Serie B
    3.70
    0%
    Arezzo 1X2
    xG 1.3–1.6 · Model 27%
    L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1527%6/22
  • RijekaVaraždin
    Sun 15:00 · 1. HNL
    3.85
    -1%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 26%
    L530%3/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
  • Sheffield WednesdayBlackpool
    Sun 15:00 · League One
    4.23
    0%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.2 · Model 24%
    L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
  • Baník OstravaViktoria Plzeň
    Sun 15:00 · Chance Liga
    4.08
    0%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.4 · Model 24%
    L520%2/10L1015%3/20L1517%5/30
  • LazioCagliari
    Sun 15:00 · Serie A
    4.49
    +1%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.9–1.1 · Model 22%
    L510%1/10L1010%2/20L1510%3/30
  • Charlton Athletic Wlimited dataChelsea W
    Sun 15:30 · Women's Super League
    1.04
    -16%
    Chelsea W 1X2
    xG 1.0–1.9 · Model 81%
    L590%9/10L1088%15/17L1591%20/22
  • Baltika KaliningradAkron
    Sun 15:30 · Premier League
    3.71
    -2%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 26%
    L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
  • FC Union BerlinFC Köln
    Sun 15:30 · Bundesliga
    2.65
    0%
    FC Köln 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.7 · Model 38%
    L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1540%12/30
  • NordsjællandFC Midtjylland
    Sun 16:00 · Superliga
    3.87
    -1%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.4 · Model 26%
    L550%5/10L1045%9/20L1537%11/30
  • Sint-TruidenOH Leuven
    Sun 16:00 · Pro League
    4.88
    +7%
    OH Leuven 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.3 · Model 22%
    L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1530%9/30
  • DenderJong KRC Genk U23
    Sun 16:00 · Challenger Pro League
    4.50
    0%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 22%
    L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
  • LevadiakosAris
    Sun 16:00 · Super League
    3.81
    +6%
    Levadiakos 1X2
    xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 28%
    L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1523%7/30
  • Racing SantanderReal Madrid
    Sun 16:15 · La Liga
    1.20
    -17%
    Real Madrid 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.9 · Model 69%
    L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
  • CeutaSporting Gijón
    Sun 16:15 · La Liga 2
    2.98
    +1%
    Sporting Gijón 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.5 · Model 34%
    L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
  • Universitatea CraiovaBotoşani
    Sun 16:30 · Superliga
    1.28
    -12%
    Universitatea Craiova 1X2
    xG 1.9–1.0 · Model 69%
    L570%7/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30
  • Lausanne SportThun
    Sun 16:30 · Super League
    2.58
    0%
    Lausanne Sport 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 39%
    L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
  • SOAKorhogo
    Sun 16:30 · Ligue 1
    –
    –
    SOA 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.1 · Model 44%
    L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
  • HäckenIFK Göteborg
    Sun 16:30 · Allsvenskan
    4.37
    +4%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 24%
    L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
  • ElfsborgÖrgryte
    Sun 16:30 · Allsvenskan
    5.18
    +6%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.9–1.2 · Model 20%
    L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1527%8/30
  • AFADYamoussoukronew team
    Sun 16:30 · Ligue 1
    –
    –
    AFAD 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 44%
    L525%2/8L1031%4/13L1539%7/18
  • AroucaNacional
    Sun 16:30 · Liga Portugal
    5.58
    +4%
    Nacional 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.1 · Model 19%
    L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1527%8/30
  • LuganoBasel
    Sun 16:30 · Super League
    5.09
    -1%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 2.4–1.2 · Model 19%
    L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1517%5/30
  • Västerås SKBrommapojkarna
    Sun 16:30 · Allsvenskan
    3.97
    -1%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.7–1.2 · Model 25%
    L510%1/10L1010%2/20L1517%5/30
  • Al JaziraBani Yas
    Sun 16:35 · UAE Pro League
    –
    –
    Al Jazira 1X2
    xG 2.0–1.2 · Model 55%
    L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1550%15/30
  • Al SharjahAl Nasr
    Sun 16:35 · UAE Pro League
    –
    –
    Al Sharjah 1X2
    xG 1.7–1.4 · Model 44%
    L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1533%10/30
  • FC GroningenSparta Rotterdam
    Sun 16:45 · Eredivisie
    4.28
    +2%
    Sparta Rotterdam 1X2
    xG 2.2–1.6 · Model 24%
    L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1527%8/30
  • KFUMHamKam
    Sun 17:00 · Eliteserien
    2.14
    +1%
    KFUM 1X2
    xG 1.9–1.3 · Model 47%
    L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
  • Bodrum FKÜmraniyespor
    Sun 17:00 · 1. Lig
    2.35
    -3%
    Bodrum FK 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.2 · Model 41%
    L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
  • PanaitolikosOFI
    Sun 17:00 · Super League
    3.23
    +1%
    Panaitolikos 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.5 · Model 31%
    L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1533%10/30
  • StartLillestrøm
    Sun 17:00 · Eliteserien
    2.98
    +3%
    Start 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.5 · Model 35%
    L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
  • Boston RiverMontevideo City Torque
    Sun 17:00 · Primera Division
    3.75
    +8%
    Boston River 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 29%
    L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1530%9/30
  • Sarpsborg 08Kristiansund
    Sun 17:00 · Eliteserien
    6.31
    +10%
    Kristiansund 1X2
    xG 2.0–1.3 · Model 17%
    L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1520%6/30
  • KasımpaşaBeşiktaş
    Sun 17:00 · Super Lig
    4.59
    +4%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.4 · Model 23%
    L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
  • –
    –
    Widad Témara 1X2
    xG 1.3–1.2 · Model 39%
    L530%3/10L1020%3/15L1520%4/20

Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1: the model's view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 1 Nov, 13:17.

Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)

LeagueHomeDrawAway
1. HNL48.4%24.7%26.9%
1. Lig43.9%23.6%32.5%
2. Bundesliga46%27.5%26.5%
A-League Men36.8%28.8%34.4%
A-League Women44.2%19.4%36.4%
Admiral Bundesliga48.4%25%26.6%
AFC Champions League Elite46.9%23.1%30%
AFC Champions League Two48.3%21.7%30%
Africa Cup of Nations46.2%25%28.8%
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications50%21.7%28.3%
Allsvenskan38.6%24.7%36.8%
Botola Pro36.5%32.2%31.3%
Brasileiro Women42.5%26.3%31.1%
Bundesliga45.2%25.4%29.4%
CAF Champions League51.3%28.9%19.7%
Carabao Cup40.9%18.3%40.9%
Challenger Pro League44.7%22%33.3%
Champions League51.6%17.6%30.8%
Championship42.6%26%31.4%
Chance Liga44.3%20.3%35.4%
CONCACAF Nations League45.9%10.8%43.2%
Copa Del Rey26.9%10.9%62.2%
Copa do Brasil44.2%30.8%25%
Copa Libertadores44.8%26.6%28.6%
Copa Sudamericana44.6%31.8%23.6%
Coppa Italia60%24.4%15.6%
Coupe de France23.2%26.6%50.2%
DFB Pokal27%11.1%61.9%
Eerste Divisie44.4%21.1%34.5%
Ekstraklasa44.1%26.3%29.6%
Eliteserien51.5%17.6%30.8%
Enterprise National League45.4%20.1%34.5%
Eredivisie40.1%28.8%31.1%
Europa Conference League47%23.8%29.2%
Europa League49.8%19%31.2%
FA Cup44.2%18.2%37.7%
First Division37.8%31.1%31.1%
First League43%25.3%31.8%
FNL40.7%27.6%31.6%
Indian Super League38.4%33%28.6%
J1 League46.3%21.9%31.9%
K League 132.1%33.9%33.9%
KNVB Beker40.4%11%48.6%
La Liga48.7%24.3%27%
La Liga 246%23.3%30.7%
League One44.3%27%28.6%
League Two43.5%27.5%29%
Liga MX43.3%26.1%30.6%
Liga Portugal41.2%26%32.8%
Liga Profesional de Fútbol41.6%29.1%29.3%
Ligat ha'Al40.7%24.7%34.6%
Ligue 132.5%29.3%38.2%
Ligue 144.3%24.7%30.9%
Ligue 237.4%31.1%31.5%
Major League Soccer45.7%26.4%28%
Persian Gulf Pro League40.7%35.1%24.2%
Premier League36.1%34%29.8%
Premier League40.4%26.8%32.8%
Premier League40.5%29.1%30.4%
Premier League35%35.5%29.5%
Premier League43.4%28.1%28.5%
Premiership46.2%23.7%30.1%
Primera Division41.3%25.9%32.8%
Pro League42.9%22.6%34.6%
Pro League44%23.7%32.3%
Russian Cup40.6%28.7%30.8%
Serie A48.8%27.2%24%
Serie A41%21.9%37.1%
Serie B44.8%27.9%27.4%
Serie B44.2%28.8%27%
Stars League35.8%23.1%41%
Super League40.6%25%34.4%
Super League43.8%26.4%29.8%
Super League42.6%27%30.4%
Super Lig44.9%25.9%29.2%
Superliga41.5%27.7%30.9%
Superliga49.5%23.8%26.7%
Taça De Portugal44.5%10.3%45.2%
UAE Pro League37.5%25.6%36.9%
UEFA Nations League38%25.9%36.1%
UEFA Women's Champions League50%19.1%30.9%
UEFA Youth League49.5%17.4%33%
V-League44.2%21.8%34%
Veikkausliiga44.6%27.7%27.7%
WC Qualification Europe46.7%20%33.3%
Women's Super League44.8%20.7%34.5%
World Cup48.1%23.1%28.8%
World Cup Women Qualification Europe46.5%13.9%39.6%
Youth League50%15.7%34.3%

How the Match Result Screener Works

Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the model EV is a small tilt on the price rather than a guess against it — and still the model's view, not a proven betting edge.

Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing an EV: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.

Using It With Other Stats

Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.