Match Result Screener

Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and how it compares with the price.

Match Result Screener

Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the Pinnacle price where the match is priced.

Smart views

223 matches · best line per match

Upcoming matches with recent results hit rates, model chances and prices
	Line	Odds						L15
SalzburgAustria Lustenau Sun 14:30 · Admiral Bundesliga	Salzburg 1X2	1.15 87%	77%1.30	-11%	2.3–1.1	60%6/10	60%12/20	60%15/25
Wolfsberger ACSturm Graz Sun 14:30 · Admiral Bundesliga	Draw 1X2	4.31 23%	24%4.15	+4%	1.3–1.4	10%1/10	25%5/20	20%6/30
ExcelsiorFC Twente Sun 14:30 · Eredivisie	Draw 1X2	4.74 21%	22%4.54	+4%	1.6–1.6	20%2/10	20%4/20	20%6/30
TelstarFC Utrecht Sun 14:30 · Eredivisie	Telstar 1X2	3.21 31%	34%2.95	+9%	1.8–1.5	10%1/10	15%3/20	27%8/30
FC EmmenFC Den Bosch Sun 14:30 · Eerste Divisie	Draw 1X2	4.16 24%	23%4.36	-5%	1.9–1.4	30%3/10	15%3/20	20%6/30
BrannMolde Sun 14:30 · Eliteserien	Draw 1X2	4.32 23%	23%4.38	-1%	1.7–1.9	10%1/10	10%2/20	17%5/30
FrosinoneTorino Sun 15:00 · Serie A	Frosinone 1X2	2.02 50%	50%2.01	+1%	2.1–1.3	40%4/10	50%10/20	57%17/30
SochiUral Sun 15:00 · FNL	Sochi 1X2	2.79 36%	36%2.77	+1%	1.5–1.2	60%6/10	50%10/20	43%13/30
West Ham WLiverpool W Sun 15:00 · Women's Super League	West Ham W 1X2	3.20 31%	30%3.29	-3%	1.4–1.4	40%4/10	50%10/20	40%12/30
StrasbourgAuxerre Sun 15:00 · Ligue 1	Auxerre 1X2	4.07 25%	27%3.72	+9%	1.8–1.6	70%7/10	50%10/20	47%14/30
Aarhus FremadHillerød Sun 15:00 · First Division	Draw 1X2	3.77 27%	27%3.77	0%	1.4–1.1	30%3/10	45%9/20	37%11/30
AvellinoPisa Sun 15:00 · Serie B	Avellino 1X2	2.98 34%	36%2.78	+7%	1.6–1.3	10%1/10	30%6/20	43%13/30
EmpoliJuve Stabia Sun 15:00 · Serie B	Empoli 1X2	3.14 32%	33%3.06	+3%	1.3–1.3	10%1/10	30%6/20	30%9/30
Inter KashiGoa Sun 15:00 · Indian Super League	Draw 1X2	4.70 21%	23%4.37	+8%	1.3–1.3	50%5/10	30%6/20	33%10/30
Brighton WCrystal Palace Wlimited data Sun 15:00 · Women's Super League	Brighton W 1X2	1.26 79%	68%1.47	-14%	1.9–1.2	50%5/10	29%5/17	32%7/22
Birmingham Wlimited dataTottenham W Sun 15:00 · Women's Super League	Draw 1X2	4.44 23%	22%4.58	-3%	1.9–1.6	20%2/10	29%5/17	23%5/22
ArezzoAscoli Sun 15:00 · Serie B	Arezzo 1X2	3.70 27%	27%3.69	0%	1.3–1.6	10%1/10	25%5/20	27%6/22
RijekaVaraždin Sun 15:00 · 1. HNL	Draw 1X2	3.85 26%	26%3.88	-1%	1.4–1.3	30%3/10	25%5/20	20%6/30
Sheffield WednesdayBlackpool Sun 15:00 · League One	Draw 1X2	4.23 24%	24%4.24	0%	1.8–1.2	20%2/10	25%5/20	20%6/30
Baník OstravaViktoria Plzeň Sun 15:00 · Chance Liga	Draw 1X2	4.08 25%	24%4.09	0%	1.5–1.4	20%2/10	15%3/20	17%5/30
LazioCagliari Sun 15:00 · Serie A	Draw 1X2	4.49 22%	22%4.45	+1%	1.9–1.1	10%1/10	10%2/20	10%3/30
Charlton Athletic Wlimited dataChelsea W Sun 15:30 · Women's Super League	Chelsea W 1X2	1.04 96%	81%1.23	-16%	1.0–1.9	90%9/10	88%15/17	91%20/22
Baltika KaliningradAkron Sun 15:30 · Premier League	Draw 1X2	3.71 27%	26%3.79	-2%	1.6–1.1	50%5/10	55%11/20	50%15/30
FC Union BerlinFC Köln Sun 15:30 · Bundesliga	FC Köln 1X2	2.65 38%	38%2.65	0%	1.6–1.7	40%4/10	40%8/20	40%12/30
NordsjællandFC Midtjylland Sun 16:00 · Superliga	Draw 1X2	3.87 26%	26%3.90	-1%	1.5–1.4	50%5/10	45%9/20	37%11/30
Sint-TruidenOH Leuven Sun 16:00 · Pro League	OH Leuven 1X2	4.88 20%	22%4.56	+7%	1.8–1.3	40%4/10	35%7/20	30%9/30
DenderJong KRC Genk U23 Sun 16:00 · Challenger Pro League	Draw 1X2	4.50 22%	22%4.51	0%	1.6–1.1	20%2/10	20%4/20	23%7/30
LevadiakosAris Sun 16:00 · Super League	Levadiakos 1X2	3.81 26%	28%3.59	+6%	1.3–1.4	10%1/10	15%3/20	23%7/30
Racing SantanderReal Madrid Sun 16:15 · La Liga	Real Madrid 1X2	1.20 83%	69%1.44	-17%	1.6–1.9	70%7/10	65%13/20	60%18/30
CeutaSporting Gijón Sun 16:15 · La Liga 2	Sporting Gijón 1X2	2.98 34%	34%2.95	+1%	1.4–1.5	70%7/10	60%12/20	63%19/30
Universitatea CraiovaBotoşani Sun 16:30 · Superliga	Universitatea Craiova 1X2	1.28 78%	69%1.45	-12%	1.9–1.0	70%7/10	55%11/20	53%16/30
Lausanne SportThun Sun 16:30 · Super League	Lausanne Sport 1X2	2.58 39%	39%2.58	0%	1.6–1.4	40%4/10	40%8/20	37%11/30
SOAKorhogo Sun 16:30 · Ligue 1	SOA 1X2	–	44%2.29	–	1.4–1.1	40%4/10	35%7/20	33%10/30
HäckenIFK Göteborg Sun 16:30 · Allsvenskan	Draw 1X2	4.37 23%	24%4.22	+4%	1.6–1.1	40%4/10	35%7/20	33%10/30
ElfsborgÖrgryte Sun 16:30 · Allsvenskan	Draw 1X2	5.18 19%	20%4.90	+6%	1.9–1.2	40%4/10	35%7/20	27%8/30
AFADYamoussoukronew team Sun 16:30 · Ligue 1	AFAD 1X2	–	44%2.25	–	1.6–1.2	25%2/8	31%4/13	39%7/18
AroucaNacional Sun 16:30 · Liga Portugal	Nacional 1X2	5.58 18%	19%5.35	+4%	1.8–1.1	20%2/10	20%4/20	27%8/30
LuganoBasel Sun 16:30 · Super League	Draw 1X2	5.09 20%	19%5.16	-1%	2.4–1.2	10%1/10	15%3/20	17%5/30
Västerås SKBrommapojkarna Sun 16:30 · Allsvenskan	Draw 1X2	3.97 25%	25%4.02	-1%	1.7–1.2	10%1/10	10%2/20	17%5/30
Al JaziraBani Yas Sun 16:35 · UAE Pro League	Al Jazira 1X2	–	55%1.82	–	2.0–1.2	60%6/10	60%12/20	50%15/30
Al SharjahAl Nasr Sun 16:35 · UAE Pro League	Al Sharjah 1X2	–	44%2.29	–	1.7–1.4	50%5/10	40%8/20	33%10/30
FC GroningenSparta Rotterdam Sun 16:45 · Eredivisie	Sparta Rotterdam 1X2	4.28 23%	24%4.19	+2%	2.2–1.6	30%3/10	30%6/20	27%8/30
KFUMHamKam Sun 17:00 · Eliteserien	KFUM 1X2	2.14 47%	47%2.11	+1%	1.9–1.3	60%6/10	55%11/20	50%15/30
Bodrum FKÜmraniyespor Sun 17:00 · 1. Lig	Bodrum FK 1X2	2.35 43%	41%2.43	-3%	1.4–1.2	40%4/10	40%8/20	37%11/30
PanaitolikosOFI Sun 17:00 · Super League	Panaitolikos 1X2	3.23 31%	31%3.19	+1%	1.4–1.5	40%4/10	40%8/20	33%10/30
StartLillestrøm Sun 17:00 · Eliteserien	Start 1X2	2.98 34%	35%2.89	+3%	1.6–1.5	30%3/10	35%7/20	33%10/30
Boston RiverMontevideo City Torque Sun 17:00 · Primera Division	Boston River 1X2	3.75 27%	29%3.48	+8%	1.4–1.3	40%4/10	35%7/20	30%9/30
Sarpsborg 08Kristiansund Sun 17:00 · Eliteserien	Kristiansund 1X2	6.31 16%	17%5.74	+10%	2.0–1.3	20%2/10	30%6/20	20%6/30
KasımpaşaBeşiktaş Sun 17:00 · Super Lig	Draw 1X2	4.59 22%	23%4.40	+4%	1.5–1.4	20%2/10	25%5/20	23%7/30
Widad Témaralimited dataMaghreb Fès Sun 17:00 · Botola Pro	Widad Témara 1X2	–	39%2.55	–	1.3–1.2	30%3/10	20%3/15	20%4/20

SalzburgAustria Lustenau
Sun 14:30 · Admiral Bundesliga
1.15
-11%
Salzburg 1X2
xG 2.3–1.1 · Model 77%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1560%15/25
Wolfsberger ACSturm Graz
Sun 14:30 · Admiral Bundesliga
4.31
+4%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 24%
L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
ExcelsiorFC Twente
Sun 14:30 · Eredivisie
4.74
+4%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.6–1.6 · Model 22%
L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1520%6/30
TelstarFC Utrecht
Sun 14:30 · Eredivisie
3.21
+9%
Telstar 1X2
xG 1.8–1.5 · Model 34%
L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1527%8/30
FC EmmenFC Den Bosch
Sun 14:30 · Eerste Divisie
4.16
-5%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.9–1.4 · Model 23%
L530%3/10L1015%3/20L1520%6/30
BrannMolde
Sun 14:30 · Eliteserien
4.32
-1%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.7–1.9 · Model 23%
L510%1/10L1010%2/20L1517%5/30
FrosinoneTorino
Sun 15:00 · Serie A
2.02
+1%
Frosinone 1X2
xG 2.1–1.3 · Model 50%
L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1557%17/30
SochiUral
Sun 15:00 · FNL
2.79
+1%
Sochi 1X2
xG 1.5–1.2 · Model 36%
L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1543%13/30
West Ham WLiverpool W
Sun 15:00 · Women's Super League
3.20
-3%
West Ham W 1X2
xG 1.4–1.4 · Model 30%
L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
StrasbourgAuxerre
Sun 15:00 · Ligue 1
4.07
+9%
Auxerre 1X2
xG 1.8–1.6 · Model 27%
L570%7/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
Aarhus FremadHillerød
Sun 15:00 · First Division
3.77
0%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.4–1.1 · Model 27%
L530%3/10L1045%9/20L1537%11/30
AvellinoPisa
Sun 15:00 · Serie B
2.98
+7%
Avellino 1X2
xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 36%
L510%1/10L1030%6/20L1543%13/30
EmpoliJuve Stabia
Sun 15:00 · Serie B
3.14
+3%
Empoli 1X2
xG 1.3–1.3 · Model 33%
L510%1/10L1030%6/20L1530%9/30
Inter KashiGoa
Sun 15:00 · Indian Super League
4.70
+8%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.3–1.3 · Model 23%
L550%5/10L1030%6/20L1533%10/30
Brighton WCrystal Palace Wlimited data
Sun 15:00 · Women's Super League
1.26
-14%
Brighton W 1X2
xG 1.9–1.2 · Model 68%
L550%5/10L1029%5/17L1532%7/22
Birmingham Wlimited dataTottenham W
Sun 15:00 · Women's Super League
4.44
-3%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.9–1.6 · Model 22%
L520%2/10L1029%5/17L1523%5/22
ArezzoAscoli
Sun 15:00 · Serie B
3.70
0%
Arezzo 1X2
xG 1.3–1.6 · Model 27%
L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1527%6/22
RijekaVaraždin
Sun 15:00 · 1. HNL
3.85
-1%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 26%
L530%3/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
Sheffield WednesdayBlackpool
Sun 15:00 · League One
4.23
0%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.8–1.2 · Model 24%
L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
Baník OstravaViktoria Plzeň
Sun 15:00 · Chance Liga
4.08
0%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.5–1.4 · Model 24%
L520%2/10L1015%3/20L1517%5/30
LazioCagliari
Sun 15:00 · Serie A
4.49
+1%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.9–1.1 · Model 22%
L510%1/10L1010%2/20L1510%3/30
Charlton Athletic Wlimited dataChelsea W
Sun 15:30 · Women's Super League
1.04
-16%
Chelsea W 1X2
xG 1.0–1.9 · Model 81%
L590%9/10L1088%15/17L1591%20/22
Baltika KaliningradAkron
Sun 15:30 · Premier League
3.71
-2%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 26%
L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
FC Union BerlinFC Köln
Sun 15:30 · Bundesliga
2.65
0%
FC Köln 1X2
xG 1.6–1.7 · Model 38%
L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1540%12/30
NordsjællandFC Midtjylland
Sun 16:00 · Superliga
3.87
-1%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.5–1.4 · Model 26%
L550%5/10L1045%9/20L1537%11/30
Sint-TruidenOH Leuven
Sun 16:00 · Pro League
4.88
+7%
OH Leuven 1X2
xG 1.8–1.3 · Model 22%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1530%9/30
DenderJong KRC Genk U23
Sun 16:00 · Challenger Pro League
4.50
0%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 22%
L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
LevadiakosAris
Sun 16:00 · Super League
3.81
+6%
Levadiakos 1X2
xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 28%
L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1523%7/30
Racing SantanderReal Madrid
Sun 16:15 · La Liga
1.20
-17%
Real Madrid 1X2
xG 1.6–1.9 · Model 69%
L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
CeutaSporting Gijón
Sun 16:15 · La Liga 2
2.98
+1%
Sporting Gijón 1X2
xG 1.4–1.5 · Model 34%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
Universitatea CraiovaBotoşani
Sun 16:30 · Superliga
1.28
-12%
Universitatea Craiova 1X2
xG 1.9–1.0 · Model 69%
L570%7/10L1055%11/20L1553%16/30
Lausanne SportThun
Sun 16:30 · Super League
2.58
0%
Lausanne Sport 1X2
xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 39%
L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
SOAKorhogo
Sun 16:30 · Ligue 1
–
–
SOA 1X2
xG 1.4–1.1 · Model 44%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
HäckenIFK Göteborg
Sun 16:30 · Allsvenskan
4.37
+4%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 24%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
ElfsborgÖrgryte
Sun 16:30 · Allsvenskan
5.18
+6%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.9–1.2 · Model 20%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1527%8/30
AFADYamoussoukronew team
Sun 16:30 · Ligue 1
–
–
AFAD 1X2
xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 44%
L525%2/8L1031%4/13L1539%7/18
AroucaNacional
Sun 16:30 · Liga Portugal
5.58
+4%
Nacional 1X2
xG 1.8–1.1 · Model 19%
L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1527%8/30
LuganoBasel
Sun 16:30 · Super League
5.09
-1%
Draw 1X2
xG 2.4–1.2 · Model 19%
L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1517%5/30
Västerås SKBrommapojkarna
Sun 16:30 · Allsvenskan
3.97
-1%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.7–1.2 · Model 25%
L510%1/10L1010%2/20L1517%5/30
Al JaziraBani Yas
Sun 16:35 · UAE Pro League
–
–
Al Jazira 1X2
xG 2.0–1.2 · Model 55%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1550%15/30
Al SharjahAl Nasr
Sun 16:35 · UAE Pro League
–
–
Al Sharjah 1X2
xG 1.7–1.4 · Model 44%
L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1533%10/30
FC GroningenSparta Rotterdam
Sun 16:45 · Eredivisie
4.28
+2%
Sparta Rotterdam 1X2
xG 2.2–1.6 · Model 24%
L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1527%8/30
KFUMHamKam
Sun 17:00 · Eliteserien
2.14
+1%
KFUM 1X2
xG 1.9–1.3 · Model 47%
L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
Bodrum FKÜmraniyespor
Sun 17:00 · 1. Lig
2.35
-3%
Bodrum FK 1X2
xG 1.4–1.2 · Model 41%
L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
PanaitolikosOFI
Sun 17:00 · Super League
3.23
+1%
Panaitolikos 1X2
xG 1.4–1.5 · Model 31%
L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1533%10/30
StartLillestrøm
Sun 17:00 · Eliteserien
2.98
+3%
Start 1X2
xG 1.6–1.5 · Model 35%
L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
Boston RiverMontevideo City Torque
Sun 17:00 · Primera Division
3.75
+8%
Boston River 1X2
xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 29%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1530%9/30
Sarpsborg 08Kristiansund
Sun 17:00 · Eliteserien
6.31
+10%
Kristiansund 1X2
xG 2.0–1.3 · Model 17%
L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1520%6/30
KasımpaşaBeşiktaş
Sun 17:00 · Super Lig
4.59
+4%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.5–1.4 · Model 23%
L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
Widad Témaralimited dataMaghreb Fès
Sun 17:00 · Botola Pro
–
–
Widad Témara 1X2
xG 1.3–1.2 · Model 39%
L530%3/10L1020%3/15L1520%4/20

Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1: the model's view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 1 Nov, 13:17.

Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)

League	Matches	Home	Draw	Away	Goals
1. HNL	182	48.4%	24.7%	26.9%	2.77
1. Lig	394	43.9%	23.6%	32.5%	2.89
2. Bundesliga	298	46%	27.5%	26.5%	2.97
A-League Men	163	36.8%	28.8%	34.4%	2.82
A-League Women	129	44.2%	19.4%	36.4%	2.71
Admiral Bundesliga	192	48.4%	25%	26.6%	2.85
AFC Champions League Elite	130	46.9%	23.1%	30%	2.68
AFC Champions League Two	120	48.3%	21.7%	30%	2.78
Africa Cup of Nations	52	46.2%	25%	28.8%	2.33
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications	60	50%	21.7%	28.3%	2.53
Allsvenskan	223	38.6%	24.7%	36.8%	2.85
Botola Pro	230	36.5%	32.2%	31.3%	2.23
Brasileiro Women	167	42.5%	26.3%	31.1%	2.6
Bundesliga	303	45.2%	25.4%	29.4%	3.31
CAF Champions League	152	51.3%	28.9%	19.7%	2.07
Carabao Cup	93	40.9%	18.3%	40.9%	3.04
Challenger Pro League	246	44.7%	22%	33.3%	2.93
Champions League	279	51.6%	17.6%	30.8%	3.37
Championship	566	42.6%	26%	31.4%	2.73
Chance Liga	271	44.3%	20.3%	35.4%	2.76
CONCACAF Nations League	74	45.9%	10.8%	43.2%	3.38
Copa Del Rey	119	26.9%	10.9%	62.2%	3.23
Copa do Brasil	156	44.2%	30.8%	25%	2.12
Copa Libertadores	154	44.8%	26.6%	28.6%	2.1
Copa Sudamericana	157	44.6%	31.8%	23.6%	2.29
Coppa Italia	45	60%	24.4%	15.6%	3
Coupe de France	203	23.2%	26.6%	50.2%	3.14
DFB Pokal	63	27%	11.1%	61.9%	3.95
Eerste Divisie	374	44.4%	21.1%	34.5%	3.32
Ekstraklasa	304	44.1%	26.3%	29.6%	2.77
Eliteserien	227	51.5%	17.6%	30.8%	3.29
Enterprise National League	557	45.4%	20.1%	34.5%	3.04
Eredivisie	312	40.1%	28.8%	31.1%	3.27
Europa Conference League	411	47%	23.8%	29.2%	2.83
Europa League	269	49.8%	19%	31.2%	2.83
FA Cup	865	44.2%	18.2%	37.7%	3.3
First Division	180	37.8%	31.1%	31.1%	2.79
First League	277	43%	25.3%	31.8%	2.38
FNL	297	40.7%	27.6%	31.6%	2.52
Indian Super League	112	38.4%	33%	28.6%	2.45
J1 League	160	46.3%	21.9%	31.9%	2.91
K League 1	224	32.1%	33.9%	33.9%	2.43
KNVB Beker	109	40.4%	11%	48.6%	4.01
La Liga	382	48.7%	24.3%	27%	2.8
La Liga 2	472	46%	23.3%	30.7%	2.68
League One	548	44.3%	27%	28.6%	2.74
League Two	552	43.5%	27.5%	29%	2.59
Liga MX	330	43.3%	26.1%	30.6%	2.84
Liga Portugal	308	41.2%	26%	32.8%	2.72
Liga Profesional de Fútbol	529	41.6%	29.1%	29.3%	2.13
Ligat ha'Al	243	40.7%	24.7%	34.6%	2.93
Ligue 1	191	32.5%	29.3%	38.2%	2.03
Ligue 1	291	44.3%	24.7%	30.9%	2.81
Ligue 2	289	37.4%	31.1%	31.5%	2.57
Major League Soccer	508	45.7%	26.4%	28%	3.26
Persian Gulf Pro League	194	40.7%	35.1%	24.2%	1.85
Premier League	285	36.1%	34%	29.8%	2.18
Premier League	235	40.4%	26.8%	32.8%	2.51
Premier League	378	40.5%	29.1%	30.4%	2.76
Premier League	234	35%	35.5%	29.5%	2.15
Premier League	235	43.4%	28.1%	28.5%	2.53
Premiership	236	46.2%	23.7%	30.1%	2.83
Primera Division	293	41.3%	25.9%	32.8%	2.37
Pro League	301	42.9%	22.6%	34.6%	2.86
Pro League	350	44%	23.7%	32.3%	3.01
Russian Cup	143	40.6%	28.7%	30.8%	2.63
Serie A	412	48.8%	27.2%	24%	2.7
Serie A	383	41%	21.9%	37.1%	2.65
Serie B	391	44.8%	27.9%	27.4%	2.32
Serie B	385	44.2%	28.8%	27%	2.56
Stars League	134	35.8%	23.1%	41%	3.46
Super League	224	40.6%	25%	34.4%	3.36
Super League	242	43.8%	26.4%	29.8%	3.13
Super League	237	42.6%	27%	30.4%	2.57
Super Lig	301	44.9%	25.9%	29.2%	2.76
Superliga	188	41.5%	27.7%	30.9%	3.06
Superliga	311	49.5%	23.8%	26.7%	2.58
Taça De Portugal	146	44.5%	10.3%	45.2%	3.06
UAE Pro League	176	37.5%	25.6%	36.9%	3.05
UEFA Nations League	108	38%	25.9%	36.1%	2.44
UEFA Women's Champions League	162	50%	19.1%	30.9%	3.63
UEFA Youth League	218	49.5%	17.4%	33%	3.78
V-League	156	44.2%	21.8%	34%	2.67
Veikkausliiga	177	44.6%	27.7%	27.7%	2.58
WC Qualification Europe	60	46.7%	20%	33.3%	3.45
Women's Super League	145	44.8%	20.7%	34.5%	3.12
World Cup	104	48.1%	23.1%	28.8%	2.96
World Cup Women Qualification Europe	101	46.5%	13.9%	39.6%	3.45
Youth League	236	50%	15.7%	34.3%	3.81

How the Match Result Screener Works

Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the model EV is a small tilt on the price rather than a guess against it — and still the model's view, not a proven betting edge.

Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing an EV: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.

Using It With Other Stats

Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.

Match Result Screener