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Card Statistics

Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.

Card Screener

Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price next to bet365 where the odds are in.

Smart views
258 matches · best line per match
  • Athletic ClubCeará
    Mon 22:00 · Serie B
    Ref Alex Gomes Stefano · 5.4 cards/match · ×1.15
    1.61
    +8%
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.2 · Model 67%
    L580%8/10L1080%16/20L1573%22/30
  • EldenseGranada
    Sun 14:00 · La Liga 2
    Ref Iosu Galech Apezteguía · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.11
    1.61
    +1%
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.7 · Model 62%
    L590%9/10L1075%15/20L1567%20/30
  • PAOKAsteras Tripolis
    Sun 18:00 · Super League
    Ref Michalis Matsoukas · 5.6 cards/match · ×1.15
    1.90
    +11%
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.8 · Model 58%
    L560%6/10L1075%15/20L1557%17/30
  • SpVgg Greuther FürthHolstein Kiel
    Sun 13:30 · 2. Bundesliga
    Ref Lars Erbst · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.88
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
    L570%7/10L1075%15/20L1580%24/30
  • FalkirkCeltic
    Sun 14:00 · Premiership
    Ref Duncan Nicolson · 4.5 cards/match · ×1.05
    1.90
    +6%
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.3 · Model 56%
    L580%8/10L1075%15/20L1563%19/30
  • Los Angeles FCMinnesota United
    Mon 02:30 · Major League Soccer
    Ref Joe Dickerson · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.11
    1.66
    +1%
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.5 · Model 61%
    L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
  • Atlanta UnitedToronto
    Sun 22:30 · Major League Soccer
    Ref Filip Dujic · 4.2 cards/match · ×1.00
    1.72
    0%
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.3 · Model 58%
    L580%8/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
  • AlbionDeportivo Maldonado
    Tue 00:00 · Primera Division
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.9 · Model 54%
    L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1573%22/30
  • Odense BKSilkeborg IF
    Sun 14:00 · Superliga
    Ref Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.91
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
    L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1553%16/30
  • Wolfsberger ACSturm Graz
    Sun 14:30 · Admiral Bundesliga
    Ref Alain Sadikovski · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.01
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.5 · Model 46%
    L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1557%17/30
  • Manchester United U19new teamRoma U19new team
    Tue 14:00 · UEFA Youth League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.9 · Model 55%
    L567%4/6L1067%4/6L1567%4/6
  • LASK UEFA U19new teamSlovan Bratislava U19new team
    Tue 15:00 · UEFA Youth League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 5.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.4 · Model 45%
    L567%4/6L1067%4/6L1567%4/6
  • AtalantaParma
    Mon 20:45 · Serie A
    Ref Valerio Crezzini · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.94
    1.61
    +1%
    Over 2.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.5 · Model 63%
    L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
  • Olympique MarseilleToulouse
    Sun 20:45 · Ligue 1
    Ref Hakim Ben El Hadj · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.02
    1.72
    0%
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.3 · Model 58%
    L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
  • Viborg FFHorsens
    Sun 14:00 · Superliga
    Ref Aydin Uslu · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.97
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
    L580%8/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
  • Independiente RivadaviaBanfield
    Tue 01:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
    Ref Álvaro Carranza · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.06
    1.66
    -8%
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.9 · Model 55%
    L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1547%14/30
  • Inter TurkuGnistan
    Mon 17:00 · Veikkausliiga
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
    L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
  • Brøndby IFAGF
    Sun 18:00 · Superliga
    Ref Sandi Putros · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.92
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.9 · Model 54%
    L550%5/10L1065%13/20L1567%20/30
  • NordsjællandFC Midtjylland
    Sun 16:00 · Superliga
    Ref Lasse Læbel Graagaard · 3.1 cards/match · ×0.85
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
    L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1570%21/30
  • Jong AjaxVitesse
    Mon 20:00 · Eerste Divisie
    Ref J. Ordelmans · 1.8 cards/match · ×0.85
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.8 · Model 52%
    L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
  • Birmingham CityMillwall
    Tue 21:00 · Championship
    Ref David Webb · 2.9 cards/match · ×0.85
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.7 · Model 51%
    L580%8/10L1065%13/20L1553%16/30
  • Rotor VolgogradUfa
    Sun 14:00 · FNL
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
    L550%5/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
  • Real ValladolidLeganés
    Mon 18:30 · La Liga 2
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 5.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.6 · Model 49%
    L580%8/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
  • TrabzonsporGaziantep F.K.
    Sun 14:00 · Super Lig
    Ref Abdullah Buğra Taşkınsoy · 4.1 cards/match · ×0.99
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.6 · Model 49%
    L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1557%17/30
  • Real OviedoLas Palmas
    Mon 16:15 · La Liga 2
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 5.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.3 · Model 44%
    L590%9/10L1065%13/20L1547%14/30
  • OrenburgCSKA Moskva
    Sun 11:00 · Premier League
    Ref Igor Kaplenkov · 3.2 cards/match · ×0.86
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.3 · Model 44%
    L550%5/10L1065%13/20L1550%15/30
  • Lokomotiva ZagrebOsijek
    Sun 18:00 · 1. HNL
    Ref Marko Crnojević · 2.5 cards/match · ×0.93
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.2 · Model 41%
    L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
  • Gil VicenteVitória Guimarães
    Mon 21:15 · Liga Portugal
    Ref Hélder Carvalho · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.88
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.1 · Model 40%
    L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1553%16/30
  • Spartak KostromaVolna Koverninonew team
    Tue 17:30 · Russian Cup
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
    L556%5/9L1064%9/14L1558%11/19
  • Port FCnew teamBeijing Guoan
    Tue 13:15 · AFC Champions League Elite
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
    L563%5/8L1062%8/13L1561%11/18
  • Shakhtar Donetsk U19new teamSporting CP U19
    Tue 13:00 · UEFA Youth League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 5.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.3 · Model 43%
    L575%6/8L1062%8/13L1557%8/14
  • Hapoel Ramat Ganlimited dataMaccabi Tel Aviv
    Mon 19:00 · Ligat ha'Al
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.6 · Model 49%
    L560%6/10L1061%11/18L1557%13/23
  • NovorizontinoOperário PR
    Sun 22:30 · Serie B
    Ref André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento · 5.4 cards/match · ×1.15
    1.72
    +4%
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.7 · Model 61%
    L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
  • Defensa y JusticiaIndependiente
    Mon 23:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
    Ref Sebastián Nicolás Martínez · 6.2 cards/match · ×1.15
    1.72
    +1%
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.5 · Model 59%
    L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
  • OuluKuPS
    Sun 14:00 · Veikkausliiga
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.9 · Model 54%
    L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
  • Ulsan HDGangwon
    Sun 06:00 · K League 1
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.9 · Model 54%
    L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1547%14/30
  • BurgosCastellón
    Sun 18:30 · La Liga 2
    Ref Rafael Sánchez López · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.08
    1.83
    -1%
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.1 · Model 54%
    L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
  • Hapoel Tel AvivMaccabi Haifa
    Mon 19:30 · Ligat ha'Al
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.9 · Model 54%
    L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
  • Sint-TruidenOH Leuven
    Sun 16:00 · Pro League
    Ref Michiel Allaerts · 4.2 cards/match · ×0.99
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
    L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
  • Nashville SCNew York RB
    Sun 22:30 · Major League Soccer
    Ref Sergii Demianchuk · 4.4 cards/match · ×1.03
    2.10
    +6%
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.0 · Model 50%
    L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
  • BenficaAlverca
    Mon 21:15 · Liga Portugal
    Ref Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa · 4.2 cards/match · ×0.99
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.6 · Model 49%
    L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
  • Racing SantanderReal Madrid
    Sun 16:15 · La Liga
    Ref José Luis Munuera Montero · 4.1 cards/match · ×0.98
    1.83
    -10%
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.6 · Model 49%
    L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
  • SivassporBoluspor
    Sun 11:30 · 1. Lig
    Ref Süleyman Bahadır · 4.2 cards/match · ×1.00
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.6 · Model 49%
    L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1550%15/30
  • ComoVenezia
    Sun 12:30 · Serie A
    Ref Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.95
    2.00
    -6%
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.6 · Model 47%
    L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1550%15/30
  • FC BarcelonaAston Villa
    Tue 21:00 · Champions League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.3 · Model 43%
    L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1543%13/30
  • FC BarcelonaAston Villa
    Tue 21:00 · Champions League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.3 · Model 43%
    L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1543%13/30
  • Lokomotiv MoskvaSpartak Moskva
    Sun 17:45 · Premier League
    Ref Artem Chistyakov · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.89
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.3 · Model 43%
    L540%4/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
  • Barcelona U19limited dataAston Villa U19limited data
    Tue 16:00 · UEFA Youth League
    Ref: not assigned yet
    –
    –
    Over 4.5 Match cards
    Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
    L570%7/10L1056%9/16L1556%9/16
  • KAS EupenExcelsior Virtonlimited data
    Sun 19:15 · Challenger Pro League
    Ref Jasper Vitse · 3.1 cards/match · ×0.85
    –
    –
    Over 3.5 Match cards
    Exp 3.7 · Model 50%
    L570%7/10L1056%9/16L1548%10/21
  • Kalamatalimited dataIraklislimited data
    Mon 18:30 · Super League
    Ref Christos Vergetis · 5.1 cards/match · ×1.15
    2.00
    -8%
    Over 5.5 Match cards
    Exp 5.5 · Model 46%
    L540%4/10L1056%9/16L1556%9/16

Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1: the model’s view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 31 Oct, 23:17.

Referees this week — strictest first

RefereeCards / matchEffectNext match
Anderson Daronco5.2×1.15PalmeirasvVasco da Gama · Copa do Brasil
Facundo Tello Figueroa5.0×1.15Vélez SarsfieldvSan Lorenzo · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Esteban Ostojich6.2×1.15Atlético ProgresovDefensor Sporting · Primera Division
Yael Falcón Pérez5.7×1.15Atlético TucumánvArgentinos Juniors · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Wilton Pereira Sampaio5.3×1.15PalmeirasvRemo · Serie A
Davi de Oliveira Lacerda5.2×1.15GrêmiovAtlético Mineiro · Copa do Brasil
Bruno Arleu de Araujo5.5×1.15FortalezavAtlético GO · Serie B
José Burgos5.3×1.15Boston RivervMontevideo City Torque · Primera Division
Alex Gomes Stefano5.4×1.15Athletic ClubvCeará · Serie B
Ramon Abatti5.2×1.15Athletico PRvVasco da Gama · Serie A
Paulo Cesar Zanovelli5.7×1.15FlamengovGrêmio · Serie A
Hernán Heras6.3×1.15DanubiovNacional · Primera Division
Felipe Fernandes de Lima5.5×1.15GoiásvCRB · Serie B
Nicolás Ramírez6.6×1.15Boca JuniorsvRiver Plate · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Alejandro José Hernández Hernández5.1×1.15Athletic ClubvReal Sociedad · La Liga
Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Fillho5.3×1.15InternacionalvCoritiba · Serie A
Lucas Paulo Torezin5.5×1.15ChapecoensevMirassol · Serie A
André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento5.4×1.15NovorizontinovOperário PR · Serie B
Sebastián Nicolás Martínez6.2×1.15Defensa y JusticiavIndependiente · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Edina Alves Batista6.0×1.15BragantinovSantos · Serie A
Afro Rocha de Carvalho Filho5.1×1.15NáuticovAvaí · Serie B
João António Ferreira Gonçalves6.1×1.15Academico ViseuvRio Ave · Liga Portugal
Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández6.8×1.15TenerifevFC Andorra · La Liga 2
Alexis Da Silva5.1×1.15Vancouver WhitecapsvSeattle Sounders · Major League Soccer
Kirill Levnikov5.3×1.15Baltika KaliningradvAkron · Premier League
Ozan Ergün5.1×1.15İstanbul BaşakşehirvSamsunspor · Super Lig
John Brooks5.4×1.15Newcastle UnitedvEverton · Premier League
Florian Exner5.7×1.15Eintracht FrankfurtvHamburger SV · Bundesliga
Lluís Bestard Servera5.7×1.15ElchevValencia · La Liga
Alejandro Ojaos Valera5.6×1.15CeutavSporting Gijón · La Liga 2
Christos Vergetis5.1×1.15KalamatavIraklis · Super League
Paride Tremolada5.8×1.15Hellas VeronavCarrarese · Serie B
Adonai Escobedo González5.1×1.15GuadalajaravAtlante · Liga MX
David Rafael Oliveira Silva6.3×1.15Sporting BragavFamalicão · Liga Portugal
Fedayi San5.6×1.15Lausanne SportvThun · Super League
Richard Hempel5.8×1.15FC Union BerlinvFC Köln · Bundesliga
Spiros Zabalas5.4×1.15PanaitolikosvOFI · Super League
Thanasis Tzilos6.1×1.15LevadiakosvAris · Super League
Michalis Matsoukas5.6×1.15PAOKvAsteras Tripolis · Super League
Daniel Zamora6.0×1.15Newell's Old BoysvUnión Santa Fe · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How the Card Model Works

Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.

Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.

Using Card Stats for Betting

Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.

Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.