Card Statistics

Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.

Card Screener

Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price next to bet365 where the odds are in.

Smart views

340 matches · line closest to even per match

Upcoming matches with recent cards hit rates, model chances and prices
	Line	Odds						L15
CórdobaCeuta Sat 18:30 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	55%1.83	–	6.0	100%10/10	85%17/20	63%19/30
Sparta PrahaAFC Bournemouth Thu 18:45 · Europa LeagueRef Erik Lambrechts · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.04	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.66 60%	62%1.60	+4%	4.7ref +0.2	100%10/10	80%16/20	70%21/30
BurgosCelta de Vigo II Sat 14:00 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	57%1.77	–	5.0	80%8/10	80%16/20	70%19/27
GillinghamBarrow Sat 16:00 · FA CupRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	52%1.91	–	4.8	80%8/10	80%16/20	63%19/30
Orlando CityNew England Sat 22:00 · Major League SoccerRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	57%1.75	–	4.0	80%8/10	75%15/20	67%20/30
LeganésAlbacete Sat 18:30 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	54%1.86	–	4.9	90%9/10	75%15/20	60%18/30
Botev VratsaLokomotiv Plovdiv Sat 12:30 · First LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	53%1.87	–	4.8	80%8/10	75%15/20	67%20/30
Sturm GrazCelje Thu 21:00 · Europa LeagueRef Giorgi Kruashvili · 6.3 cards/match · ×1.15	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.66 60%	65%1.54	+8%	5.1ref +0.7	90%9/10	70%14/20	70%21/30
BenficaLech Poznań Thu 21:00 · Europa LeagueRef Martin Matoša · 5.1 cards/match · ×1.12	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.83 55%	61%1.64	+12%	4.9ref +0.5	70%7/10	70%14/20	57%17/30
Motor LublinWisła Płock Fri 18:00 · EkstraklasaRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	60%1.68	–	4.2	90%9/10	70%14/20	63%19/30

CórdobaCeuta
Sat 18:30 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 6.0 · Model 55%
L5100%10/10L1085%17/20L1563%19/30
Sparta PrahaAFC Bournemouth
Thu 18:45 · Europa League
Ref Erik Lambrechts · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.04
1.66
+4%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 62%
L5100%10/10L1080%16/20L1570%21/30
BurgosCelta de Vigo II
Sat 14:00 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.0 · Model 57%
L580%8/10L1080%16/20L1570%19/27
GillinghamBarrow
Sat 16:00 · FA Cup
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 52%
L580%8/10L1080%16/20L1563%19/30
Orlando CityNew England
Sat 22:00 · Major League Soccer
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 57%
L580%8/10L1075%15/20L1567%20/30
LeganésAlbacete
Sat 18:30 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.9 · Model 54%
L590%9/10L1075%15/20L1560%18/30
Botev VratsaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Sat 12:30 · First League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 53%
L580%8/10L1075%15/20L1567%20/30
Sturm GrazCelje
Thu 21:00 · Europa League
Ref Giorgi Kruashvili · 6.3 cards/match · ×1.15
1.66
+8%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 5.1 · Model 65%
L590%9/10L1070%14/20L1570%21/30
BenficaLech Poznań
Thu 21:00 · Europa League
Ref Martin Matoša · 5.1 cards/match · ×1.12
1.83
+12%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.9 · Model 61%
L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1557%17/30
Motor LublinWisła Płock
Fri 18:00 · Ekstraklasa
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.2 · Model 60%
L590%9/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30

Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1: the model’s view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 4 Nov, 23:17.

Referees this week — strictest first

Referee	Matches	Cards / match	Effect	Next match	Exp. cards
Facundo Tello Figueroa	67	5.0	×1.15	Gimnasia y Esgrima MendozavIndependiente RivadaviaSat 19:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.4 → 5.1
Wilton Pereira Sampaio	63	5.2	×1.15	PalmeirasvRemoThu 23:30 · Serie A	4.7 → 5.4
Darío Herrera	61	5.8	×1.15	Barracas CentralvRacing ClubFri 19:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.4 → 5.1
Ramon Abatti	51	5.1	×1.15	Athletico PRvVasco da GamaWed 23:30 · Serie A	4.4 → 5.1
Paulo Cesar Zanovelli	51	5.6	×1.15	FlamengovGrêmioWed 23:30 · Serie A	4.8 → 5.5
Ramon Abatti	51	5.1	×1.15	Atlético MineirovGrêmioSat 22:00 · Copa do Brasil	4.5 → 5.2
Sebastían Zunino	47	5.2	×1.15	Boca JuniorsvDefensa y JusticiaSat 21:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.8 → 5.6
Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima	46	5.2	×1.15	VitóriavFluminenseSat 00:00 · Serie A	4.4 → 5.1
Carlos Andrés Gariano	44	5.3	×1.15	Unión Santa FevVélez SarsfieldFri 23:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.7 → 5.4
Damian Sylwestrzak	43	5.0	×1.15	AZvJuventusThu 21:00 · Europa League	3.8 → 4.4
Luis Lobo Medina	43	5.5	×1.15	Gimnasia La PlatavBelgranoThu 23:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.6 → 5.3
Paweł Raczkowski	41	5.4	×1.15	FC MidtjyllandvAjaxThu 18:45 · Europa Conference League	3.9 → 4.5
Radoslav Gidzhenov	41	5.6	×1.15	LillestrømvViktoria PlzeňThu 18:45 · Europa League	4.0 → 4.6
David Dickinson	40	5.0	×1.15	St. JohnstonevDundeeSat 16:00 · Premiership	4.0 → 4.6
Stuart Attwell	39	5.0	×1.15	EvertonvCoventry CityFri 21:00 · Premier League	4.1 → 4.7
Patryk Gryckiewicz	34	4.9	×1.15	Lincoln Red ImpsvHajduk SplitThu 18:45 · Europa Conference League	4.7 → 5.4
Hernán Mastrángelo	33	5.0	×1.15	Rosario CentralvEstudiantes de Río CuartoSat 21:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.6 → 5.3
Bastien Dechepy	33	5.0	×1.15	Le MansvMonacoSun 17:15 · Ligue 1	4.2 → 4.8
Orel Grinfeeld	32	5.0	×1.15	Bayer 04 LeverkusenvOlympique MarseilleThu 21:00 · Europa League	4.2 → 4.8
John Brooks	32	5.3	×1.15	Leeds UnitedvTottenham HotspurSat 13:30 · Premier League	4.2 → 4.8
Jan Beneš	31	5.9	×1.15	Hradec KrálovévSigma OlomoucSat 15:00 · Chance Liga	3.9 → 4.5
Horatiu Fesnic	29	5.1	×1.15	Crystal PalacevTSG HoffenheimThu 18:45 · Europa League	4.2 → 4.8
Giovanni Ayroldi	27	5.7	×1.15	CagliarivFrosinoneSat 15:00 · Serie A	3.8 → 4.4
Sören Storks	26	5.0	×1.15	VfB StuttgartvWerder BremenSat 18:30 · Bundesliga	3.9 → 4.5
Igal Frid	24	5.0	×1.15	LuganovKauno ŽalgirisThu 21:00 · Europa Conference League	4.2 → 4.8
Michael Bacher	20	5.3	×1.15	Dynamo DresdenvSpVgg Greuther FürthFri 18:30 · 2. Bundesliga	4.0 → 4.6
Antoni Bandić	11	6.8	×1.15	MonacovNordsjællandThu 21:00 · Europa Conference League	4.4 → 5.0
Giorgi Kruashvili	9	6.3	×1.15	Sturm GrazvCeljeThu 21:00 · Europa League	4.4 → 5.1
Kristo Tohver	8	6.5	×1.15	TrabzonsporvSC FreiburgThu 18:45 · Europa Conference League	4.2 → 4.8
Panagiotis Koukoulas	7	8.4	×1.15	ArisvPanaitolikosSat 18:30 · Super League	4.5 → 5.2
Henrik Nalbandyan	6	5.8	×1.15	Crvena ZvezdavInter Club d'EscaldesThu 18:45 · Europa Conference League	4.6 → 5.3
Maximiliano Macheroni	2	8.5	×1.15	Talleres CórdobavEstudiantesSat 19:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.8 → 5.5
Harm Osmers	42	4.9	×1.15	Borussia DortmundvElversbergSat 15:30 · Bundesliga	4.0 → 4.6
Jan Všetečka	27	4.9	×1.15	Slovan LiberecvBohemians 1905Sat 15:00 · Chance Liga	4.4 → 5.0
Luca Pairetto	30	4.9	×1.15	NapolivLazioSun 12:30 · Serie A	4.1 → 4.7
Pablo Dóvalo	35	4.9	×1.14	Argentinos JuniorsvHuracánSat 21:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.1 → 5.8
Robert Harvey	6	5.7	×1.14	KuPSvGentThu 18:45 · Europa Conference League	3.9 → 4.5
Leandro Rey Hilfer	56	4.8	×1.14	InstitutovNewell's Old BoysSun 02:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.2 → 5.9
Vasilis Fotias	35	4.8	×1.14	Volos NFCvKifisiaSat 16:00 · Super League	5.3 → 6.0
Adam Kersey	23	4.9	×1.14	MacarthurvBrisbane RoarSun 05:00 · A-League Men	4.0 → 4.6

How the Card Model Works

Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.

Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.

Using Card Stats for Betting

Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.

Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.

Card Statistics

Card Screener

Referees this week — strictest first

How the Card Model Works

Using Card Stats for Betting

Related stats