Card stats & referee bookings

Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.

Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price next to bet365 where the odds are in.

Smart views

46 matches · line closest to even per match

Upcoming matches with recent cards hit rates, model chances and prices
	Line	Odds						L15
Barbadosnew teamGuadeloupenew team Thu 20:00 · CONCACAF Nations LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	49%2.04	–	4.6	75%6/8	75%6/8	75%6/8
SenegalSudanlimited data Thu 20:00 · Africa Cup of Nations QualificationsRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	58%1.72	–	4.1	80%8/10	72%13/18	62%13/21
Albanialimited dataFinlandlimited data Thu 20:45 · UEFA Nations LeagueRef João Pedro Silva Pinheiro · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.90	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	52%1.92	–	3.8ref −0.4	70%7/10	64%9/14	64%9/14
Antigua and Barbudanew teamTrinidad and Tobagolimited data Fri 00:00 · CONCACAF Nations LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	56%1.79	–	4.0	67%6/9	64%7/11	64%7/11
Bonairenew teamCubanew team Thu 21:00 · CONCACAF Nations LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	53%1.88	–	3.8	63%5/8	63%5/8	63%5/8
EstudiantesIndependiente Rivadavia Fri 00:00 · Super CupRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	57%1.76	–	5.0	70%7/10	60%12/20	63%19/30
Cerro LargoAtlético Progreso Fri 00:00 · Primera DivisionRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	55%1.81	–	5.0	70%7/10	60%12/20	57%17/30
Ponte PretaOperário PR Thu 23:00 · Serie BRef: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	45%2.21	–	5.4	80%8/10	60%12/20	47%14/30
Equatorial Guinealimited dataZimbabwelimited data Thu 17:00 · Africa Cup of Nations QualificationsRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	58%1.72	–	4.1	40%4/10	54%7/13	54%7/13
Mozambiquelimited dataEthiopialimited data Fri 14:00 · Africa Cup of Nations QualificationsRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	53%1.87	–	3.8	70%7/10	54%7/13	54%7/13

Barbadosnew teamGuadeloupenew team
Thu 20:00 · CONCACAF Nations League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.6 · Model 49%
L575%6/8L1075%6/8L1575%6/8
SenegalSudanlimited data
Thu 20:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.1 · Model 58%
L580%8/10L1072%13/18L1562%13/21
Albanialimited dataFinlandlimited data
Thu 20:45 · UEFA Nations League
Ref João Pedro Silva Pinheiro · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.90
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 52%
L570%7/10L1064%9/14L1564%9/14
Antigua and Barbudanew teamTrinidad and Tobagolimited data
Fri 00:00 · CONCACAF Nations League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L567%6/9L1064%7/11L1564%7/11
Bonairenew teamCubanew team
Thu 21:00 · CONCACAF Nations League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
L563%5/8L1063%5/8L1563%5/8
EstudiantesIndependiente Rivadavia
Fri 00:00 · Super Cup
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.0 · Model 57%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
Cerro LargoAtlético Progreso
Fri 00:00 · Primera Division
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.0 · Model 55%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
Ponte PretaOperário PR
Thu 23:00 · Serie B
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.4 · Model 45%
L580%8/10L1060%12/20L1547%14/30
Equatorial Guinealimited dataZimbabwelimited data
Thu 17:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.1 · Model 58%
L540%4/10L1054%7/13L1554%7/13
Mozambiquelimited dataEthiopialimited data
Fri 14:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
L570%7/10L1054%7/13L1554%7/13

Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1: the model’s view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 10 Nov, 15:17.

Referee lens: referee stats for any matchPick a match and a referee, even before the appointment, and see both teams' card form and the cards to expect.Open →

Referees this week — strictest first

Referee	Matches	Cards / match	Effect	Next match	Exp. cards
Istvan Kovacs	57	5.4	×1.15	ItalyvFranceThu 20:45 · UEFA Nations League	4.0 → 4.6
Ruebyn Ricardo	37	5.1	×1.15	Swindon TownvGrimsby TownSat 16:00 · League Two	3.9 → 4.5
Orel Grinfeeld	33	4.9	×1.15	ArmeniavCyprusThu 18:00 · UEFA Nations League	3.9 → 4.5
Matt Donohue	36	4.6	×1.10	RochdalevYork CitySat 16:00 · League Two	4.1 → 4.5
Ben Toner	38	4.6	×1.10	Salford CityvNorthampton TownSat 16:00 · League Two	3.8 → 4.1
Jérôme Brisard	34	4.6	×1.10	MontenegrovLatviaThu 20:45 · UEFA Nations League	3.9 → 4.3
Marta Huerta de Aza	34	4.4	×1.07	Inter Milano WvManchester City WTue 21:00 · UEFA Women's Champions League	3.3 → 3.6
Sandro Schärer	37	4.4	×1.07	TurkeyvBelgiumThu 18:00 · UEFA Nations League	4.0 → 4.3
Edward Duckworth	54	4.3	×1.04	Milton Keynes DonsvBurton AlbionSat 16:00 · League One	3.9 → 4.0
Robert Madley	29	4.1	×1.01	Stockport CountyvReadingSat 16:00 · League One	3.7 → 3.7
Ivana Martinčić	7	4.1	×1.01	Barcelona WvArsenal WThu 18:45 · UEFA Women's Champions League	2.9 → 2.9
Oliver Mackey	35	4.1	×1.00	AFC WimbledonvBlackpoolSat 16:00 · League One	3.7 → 3.7
Caroline Lanssens	–	–	×1.00	SL Benfica WvAustria Wien WWed 21:00 · UEFA Women's Champions League	3.5 → 3.5
Daniel Leach	–	–	×1.00	Sheffield WednesdayvPlymouth ArgyleSat 16:00 · League One	3.9 → 3.9
Andreza de Siqueira	1	4.0	×1.00	LondrinavNáuticoWed 23:00 · Serie B	4.1 → 4.1
Emanuela Rusta	7	4.0	×0.99	Juventus WvOL Lyonnes WWed 21:00 · UEFA Women's Champions League	3.4 → 3.3
Morten Krogh	34	4.0	×0.98	EnglandvCroatiaThu 20:45 · UEFA Nations League	3.4 → 3.4
Goga Kikacheishvili	13	3.9	×0.98	San MarinovBelarusThu 20:45 · UEFA Nations League	4.4 → 4.3
Emily Heaslip	28	3.9	×0.97	Real Madrid WvParis WTue 18:45 · UEFA Women's Champions League	3.7 → 3.6
Andrew Humphries	43	3.9	×0.96	Exeter CityvCheltenham TownSat 13:30 · League Two	4.1 → 3.9
Oleg Kogut	12	3.8	×0.96	Livyi BerehvBukovyna ChernivtsiSat 11:00 · Premier League	3.7 → 3.6
Thomas Parsons	50	3.8	×0.94	Crewe AlexandravNewport CountySat 16:00 · League Two	4.0 → 3.7
Frida Nielsen	17	3.6	×0.93	Paris SG WvBayern Munich WTue 21:00 · UEFA Women's Champions League	3.3 → 3.1
Catarina Isabel Ferreira Campos	2	2.0	×0.92	Roma WvServette Chênois WTue 21:00 · UEFA Women's Champions League	3.3 → 3.0
Paul Howard	27	3.6	×0.91	Fleetwood TownvTranmere RoversSat 18:30 · League Two	4.1 → 3.8
Ross Martin	36	3.6	×0.91	Shrewsbury TownvOldham AthleticSat 16:00 · League Two	4.3 → 3.9
Neil Hair	38	3.6	×0.90	Bristol RoversvChesterfieldSat 16:00 · League Two	4.4 → 4.0
João Pedro Silva Pinheiro	22	3.5	×0.90	AlbaniavFinlandThu 20:45 · UEFA Nations League	4.2 → 3.8
Nikola Dabanović	24	3.5	×0.90	Czech RepublicvSpainThu 20:45 · UEFA Nations League	3.9 → 3.5
Simon Mather	47	3.5	×0.89	Port ValevAccrington StanleySat 16:00 · League Two	4.0 → 3.5
Stephen Parkinson	43	3.5	×0.89	Wigan AthleticvBarnsleySat 16:00 · League One	4.7 → 4.2
Lewis Sandoe	25	3.2	×0.85	Colchester UnitedvGillinghamSat 16:00 · League Two	4.1 → 3.5
Miriama Bočková	5	2.2	×0.85	OH Leuven WvKøgeWed 18:45 · UEFA Women's Champions League	3.2 → 2.7

How the Card Model Works

Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.

Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.

Using Card Stats for Betting

Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.

Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.

Card stats & referee bookings

Card Screener

Referees this week — strictest first

How the Card Model Works

Using Card Stats for Betting

Related stats