Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.
Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price, with value against bet365 where the odds are in.
| Line | Odds | L15 | Last 10 · home / away | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ref Alex Gomes Stefano · 5.4 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.61 62% | 67%1.49 | +8% | 5.2ref +0.7 | 80%8/10 | 80%16/20 | 73%22/30 | |
| Ref Todor Nedyalkov Kirov · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.95 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 51%1.95 | – | 4.7ref −0.2 | 90%9/10 | 80%16/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref Michael Salisbury · 4.1 cards/match · ×0.98 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 59%1.71 | +1% | 4.4ref −0.1 | 80%8/10 | 75%15/20 | 70%21/30 | |
| Ref Michalis Matsoukas · 5.6 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.90 53% | 58%1.71 | +11% | 5.8ref +0.8 | 60%6/10 | 75%15/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima · 5.3 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.80 56% | 57%1.77 | +2% | 5.3ref +0.7 | 80%8/10 | 75%15/20 | 67%20/30 | |
| Ref Lars Erbst · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.88 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.77 | – | 4.0ref −0.5 | 70%7/10 | 75%15/20 | 80%24/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 56%1.78 | -3% | 5.2 | 80%8/10 | 75%15/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.79 | – | 5.0 | 90%9/10 | 75%15/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref Duncan Nicolson · 4.5 cards/match · ×1.05 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.90 53% | 56%1.79 | +6% | 4.4ref +0.2 | 80%8/10 | 75%15/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref Ben Speedie · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.85 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 55%1.83 | -6% | 3.9ref −0.7 | 80%8/10 | 75%15/20 | 70%21/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.87 | – | 4.9 | 70%7/10 | 70%14/20 | 73%22/30 | |
| Ref Mohamed Al Kalawy · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.91 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.88 | – | 3.8ref −0.4 | 80%8/10 | 70%14/20 | 67%20/30 | |
| Ref Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.92 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.90 | – | 3.8ref −0.4 | 60%6/10 | 70%14/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | 2.10 48% | 47%2.13 | -1% | 5.7 | 80%8/10 | 70%14/20 | 58%15/26 | |
| Ref Alain Sadikovski · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.01 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 46%2.16 | – | 4.5ref +0.1 | 70%7/10 | 70%14/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref Neil Hair · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.88 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 39%2.59 | – | 4.1ref −0.5 | 80%8/10 | 70%14/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref Valerio Crezzini · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.95 | Over 2.5 Match cards | 1.61 62% | 63%1.60 | +1% | 3.5ref −0.2 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref Hernán Mastrángelo · 4.9 cards/match · ×1.12 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 62%1.62 | +2% | 5.7ref +0.6 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref Christian Dingert · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.01 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 57%1.76 | -6% | 4.1 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref Aydin Uslu · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.98 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.78 | – | 4.0ref −0.1 | 80%8/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref Álvaro Carranza · 4.8 cards/match · ×1.06 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 55%1.81 | -8% | 4.9ref +0.3 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 47%14/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.81 | – | 3.9 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.83 | – | 4.9 | 80%8/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref Ross Martin · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.90 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.84 | – | 3.9ref −0.4 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref Sandi Putros · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.92 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.86 | – | 3.9ref −0.3 | 50%5/10 | 65%13/20 | 67%20/30 | |
| Ref Lasse Læbel Graagaard · 3.1 cards/match · ×0.85 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.88 | – | 3.8ref −0.7 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 70%21/30 | |
| Ref J. Ordelmans · 1.8 cards/match · ×0.85 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 52%1.91 | – | 3.8ref −0.7 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 50%1.98 | – | 4.7 | 50%5/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref P. Marsden · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.02 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 50%1.99 | – | 4.7ref +0.1 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 50%15/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 50%2.00 | – | 4.7 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref M. Coy · 2.9 cards/match · ×0.85 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 50%2.00 | – | 3.7ref −0.7 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.05 | – | 5.6 | 80%8/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 | |
| Ref Abdullah Buğra Taşkınsoy · 4.1 cards/match · ×0.99 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.05 | – | 4.6ref −0.1 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 5.5 Match cards | – | 44%2.28 | – | 5.3 | 90%9/10 | 65%13/20 | 47%14/30 | |
| Ref Igor Kaplenkov · 3.2 cards/match · ×0.86 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 44%2.29 | – | 4.3ref −0.7 | 50%5/10 | 65%13/20 | 50%15/30 | |
| Ref Marko Crnojević · 2.5 cards/match · ×0.93 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 41%2.46 | – | 4.2ref −0.3 | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 60%18/30 | |
| Ref Hélder Carvalho · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.89 | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 40%2.50 | – | 4.1ref −0.6 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 49%2.04 | – | 4.6 | 60%6/10 | 61%11/18 | 57%13/23 | |
| Ref André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento · 5.4 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 61%1.65 | +4% | 5.7ref +0.7 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref Tobias Reichel · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.02 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 59%1.69 | -2% | 4.3ref +0.1 | 80%8/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref Sebastián Nicolás Martínez · 6.2 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 59%1.70 | +1% | 5.5ref +0.7 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref Sergii Demianchuk · 4.4 cards/match · ×1.03 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 56%1.77 | – | 4.0ref +0.1 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref Lewis Smith · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.97 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.80 56% | 56%1.78 | +1% | 4.2ref −0.1 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 55%1.80 | – | 3.9 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref Allen Chapman · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.91 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.84 | – | 3.9ref −0.4 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.84 | – | 3.9 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 57%17/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.85 | – | 3.9 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 47%14/30 | |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.86 | – | 4.9 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref Michiel Allaerts · 4.2 cards/match · ×0.99 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.88 | – | 3.8 | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 53%16/30 | |
| Ref Mateo Busquets Ferrer · 5.4 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.90 53% | 53%1.89 | +1% | 5.1ref +0.7 | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 50%15/30 |
Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 31 Oct, 11:17.
| Referee | Cards / match | Effect | Next match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson Daronco | 5.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Facundo Tello Figueroa | 5.0 | ×1.15 | |
| Esteban Ostojich | 6.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Yael Falcón Pérez | 5.7 | ×1.15 | |
| Wilton Pereira Sampaio | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Davi de Oliveira Lacerda | 5.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Darío Herrera | 6.0 | ×1.15 | |
| Bruno Arleu de Araujo | 5.5 | ×1.15 | |
| Gustavo Tejera | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| José Burgos | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Alex Gomes Stefano | 5.4 | ×1.15 | |
| Paulo Cesar Zanovelli | 5.7 | ×1.15 | |
| Ramon Abatti | 5.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Hernán Heras | 6.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Felipe Fernandes de Lima | 5.5 | ×1.15 | |
| Alberto Javier Feres | 6.0 | ×1.15 | |
| Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Nicolás Ramírez | 6.6 | ×1.15 | |
| Damian Sylwestrzak | 5.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Paweł Raczkowski | 5.6 | ×1.15 | |
| Víctor Rivas | 5.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Fillho | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Radoslav Gidzhenov | 5.7 | ×1.15 | |
| Lucas Paulo Torezin | 5.5 | ×1.15 | |
| André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento | 5.4 | ×1.15 | |
| Sebastián Nicolás Martínez | 6.2 | ×1.15 | |
| Edina Alves Batista | 6.0 | ×1.15 | |
| Ruebyn Ricardo | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Afro Rocha de Carvalho Filho | 5.1 | ×1.15 | |
| João António Ferreira Gonçalves | 6.1 | ×1.15 | |
| Alexis Da Silva | 5.1 | ×1.15 | |
| Kadir Sağlam | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| Kirill Levnikov | 5.3 | ×1.15 | |
| José Antonio Sánchez Villalobos | 6.8 | ×1.15 | |
| Manuel Jesús Orellana Cid | 6.6 | ×1.15 | |
| Andrés Fuentes Molina | 5.8 | ×1.15 | |
| Ozan Ergün | 5.1 | ×1.15 | |
| John Brooks | 5.4 | ×1.15 | |
| Batuhan Kolak | 5.1 | ×1.15 | |
| Mateo Busquets Ferrer | 5.4 | ×1.15 |
Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.
Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.
Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.
Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.