Match Result Screener

Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and how it compares with the price.

Match Result Screener

Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the Pinnacle price where the match is priced.

Smart views

181 matches · line closest to even per match

Upcoming matches with recent results hit rates, model chances and prices
	Line	Odds						L15
Tigres UANLCruz Azul Sun 02:00 · Liga MX	Cruz Azul 1X2	2.03 49%	46%2.18	-7%	1.4–1.6	60%6/10	50%10/20	50%15/30
TolucaMonterrey Sun 02:00 · Liga MX	Toluca 1X2	1.69 59%	53%1.88	-10%	1.8–1.4	10%1/10	35%7/20	37%11/30
InstitutoNewell's Old Boys Sun 02:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Instituto 1X2	1.88 53%	49%2.03	-7%	1.4–1.0	40%4/10	35%7/20	43%13/30
Pumas UNAMAmérica Sun 04:10 · Liga MX	América 1X2	2.24 45%	42%2.40	-7%	1.6–1.7	30%3/10	40%8/20	43%13/30
MacarthurBrisbane Roar Sun 05:00 · A-League Men	Macarthur 1X2	2.50 40%	40%2.49	0%	1.6–1.4	40%4/10	40%8/20	37%11/30
Vissel KobeUrawa Reds Sun 06:00 · J1 League	Vissel Kobe 1X2	2.21 45%	46%2.17	+2%	1.9–1.2	50%5/10	50%10/20	57%17/30
Machida ZelviaSanfrecce Hiroshima Sun 06:00 · J1 League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1X2	2.41 41%	38%2.62	-8%	1.5–1.3	40%4/10	40%8/20	37%11/30
SeoulUlsan HD Sun 06:00 · K League 1	Seoul 1X2	2.05 49%	47%2.12	-4%	1.7–1.3	40%4/10	35%7/20	43%13/30
Daejeon CitizenIncheon United Sun 06:00 · K League 1	Daejeon Citizen 1X2	2.09 48%	44%2.25	-7%	1.4–1.2	20%2/10	30%6/20	37%11/30
Adelaide UnitedMelbourne Victory Sun 07:00 · A-League Men	Melbourne Victory 1X2	2.29 44%	41%2.42	-5%	1.4–1.5	40%4/10	40%8/20	33%10/30

Tigres UANLCruz Azul
Sun 02:00 · Liga MX
2.03
-7%
Cruz Azul 1X2
xG 1.4–1.6 · Model 46%
L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
TolucaMonterrey
Sun 02:00 · Liga MX
1.69
-10%
Toluca 1X2
xG 1.8–1.4 · Model 53%
L510%1/10L1035%7/20L1537%11/30
InstitutoNewell's Old Boys
Sun 02:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
1.88
-7%
Instituto 1X2
xG 1.4–1.0 · Model 49%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1543%13/30
Pumas UNAMAmérica
Sun 04:10 · Liga MX
2.24
-7%
América 1X2
xG 1.6–1.7 · Model 42%
L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
MacarthurBrisbane Roar
Sun 05:00 · A-League Men
2.50
0%
Macarthur 1X2
xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 40%
L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
Vissel KobeUrawa Reds
Sun 06:00 · J1 League
2.21
+2%
Vissel Kobe 1X2
xG 1.9–1.2 · Model 46%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1557%17/30
Machida ZelviaSanfrecce Hiroshima
Sun 06:00 · J1 League
2.41
-8%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1X2
xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 38%
L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
SeoulUlsan HD
Sun 06:00 · K League 1
2.05
-4%
Seoul 1X2
xG 1.7–1.3 · Model 47%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1543%13/30
Daejeon CitizenIncheon United
Sun 06:00 · K League 1
2.09
-7%
Daejeon Citizen 1X2
xG 1.4–1.2 · Model 44%
L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1537%11/30
Adelaide UnitedMelbourne Victory
Sun 07:00 · A-League Men
2.29
-5%
Melbourne Victory 1X2
xG 1.4–1.5 · Model 41%
L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1533%10/30

Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1: the model's view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 8 Nov, 01:17.

Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)

League	Matches	Home	Draw	Away	Goals
1. HNL	181	48.1%	23.2%	28.7%	2.83
1. Lig	395	43%	24.1%	32.9%	2.89
2. Bundesliga	301	46.2%	26.9%	26.9%	2.96
A-League Men	164	37.8%	28.7%	33.5%	2.84
A-League Women	130	43.8%	20%	36.2%	2.66
Admiral Bundesliga	192	47.9%	25%	27.1%	2.9
AFC Champions League Elite	134	45.5%	25.4%	29.1%	2.86
AFC Champions League Two	121	52.1%	16.5%	31.4%	2.79
Africa Cup of Nations	52	46.2%	25%	28.8%	2.33
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications	60	50%	21.7%	28.3%	2.53
Allsvenskan	226	41.2%	23%	35.8%	2.84
Botola Pro	220	35.5%	33.6%	30.9%	2.21
Brasileiro Women	167	42.5%	26.3%	31.1%	2.6
Bundesliga	302	45.7%	25.2%	29.1%	3.32
CAF Champions League	151	51%	29.1%	19.9%	2.06
Carabao Cup	93	40.9%	18.3%	40.9%	3.04
Challenger Pro League	247	45.3%	21.1%	33.6%	2.92
Champions League	279	52%	16.1%	31.9%	3.46
Championship	569	43.1%	25.5%	31.5%	2.74
Chance Liga	271	44.6%	20.3%	35.1%	2.75
CONCACAF Nations League	74	45.9%	10.8%	43.2%	3.38
Copa Del Rey	119	26.9%	10.9%	62.2%	3.23
Copa do Brasil	159	44.7%	30.8%	24.5%	2.11
Copa Libertadores	154	44.8%	26.6%	28.6%	2.1
Copa Sudamericana	157	44.6%	31.8%	23.6%	2.29
Coppa Italia	45	60%	24.4%	15.6%	3
Coupe de France	204	23%	26.5%	50.5%	3.13
DFB Pokal	63	27%	11.1%	61.9%	3.95
Eerste Divisie	372	44.4%	21.5%	34.1%	3.31
Ekstraklasa	304	45.1%	25.7%	29.3%	2.77
Eliteserien	225	50.7%	18.2%	31.1%	3.28
Enterprise National League	547	45.2%	20.1%	34.7%	3.06
Eredivisie	311	39.9%	28.3%	31.8%	3.3
Europa Conference League	411	47.4%	23.6%	29%	2.82
Europa League	269	48.7%	18.6%	32.7%	2.84
FA Cup	862	44.5%	17.9%	37.6%	3.32
First Division	182	37.9%	31.3%	30.8%	2.76
First League	276	43.5%	25.7%	30.8%	2.37
FNL	288	40.3%	28.1%	31.6%	2.52
Indian Super League	119	37.8%	31.1%	31.1%	2.55
J1 League	166	45.8%	22.3%	31.9%	2.88
K League 1	224	32.1%	33.9%	33.9%	2.43
KNVB Beker	109	40.4%	11%	48.6%	4.01
La Liga	383	47.8%	24.5%	27.7%	2.78
La Liga 2	471	45.2%	23.4%	31.4%	2.7
League One	550	44.2%	27.3%	28.5%	2.73
League Two	553	43.4%	27.5%	29.1%	2.59
Liga MX	329	43.5%	25.5%	31%	2.84
Liga Portugal	308	42.2%	26.3%	31.5%	2.66
Liga Profesional de Fútbol	537	42.1%	29.1%	28.9%	2.15
Ligat ha'Al	246	40.7%	25.2%	34.1%	2.95
Ligue 1	289	45.3%	24.2%	30.4%	2.85
Ligue 1	181	32%	28.2%	39.8%	2.06
Ligue 2	292	38.4%	30.1%	31.5%	2.58
Major League Soccer	513	46%	25.7%	28.3%	3.27
Persian Gulf Pro League	188	40.4%	35.1%	24.5%	1.86
Premier League	220	34.5%	35.9%	29.5%	2.13
Premier League	375	40.3%	29.1%	30.7%	2.75
Premier League	236	42.4%	27.5%	30.1%	2.56
Premier League	234	41.5%	26.9%	31.6%	2.5
Premier League	275	36%	33.5%	30.5%	2.18
Premiership	238	45.8%	23.5%	30.7%	2.81
Primera Division	290	41.4%	25.9%	32.8%	2.37
Pro League	341	44%	23.8%	32.3%	2.98
Pro League	303	42.6%	22.4%	35%	2.88
Russian Cup	143	39.9%	29.4%	30.8%	2.65
Serie A	384	41.7%	21.6%	36.7%	2.67
Serie A	402	48.8%	26.9%	24.4%	2.74
Serie B	387	43.7%	30%	26.4%	2.56
Serie B	392	45.7%	27.3%	27%	2.34
Stars League	134	35.8%	23.1%	41%	3.46
Super League	225	39.6%	24.9%	35.6%	3.4
Super League	238	42.9%	27.3%	29.8%	2.58
Super League	240	43.3%	26.7%	30%	3.15
Super Lig	301	45.2%	25.6%	29.2%	2.81
Superliga	188	42%	26.6%	31.4%	3.03
Superliga	312	49.4%	24%	26.6%	2.56
Taça De Portugal	146	44.5%	10.3%	45.2%	3.06
UAE Pro League	178	37.1%	25.3%	37.6%	3.06
UEFA Nations League	108	38%	25.9%	36.1%	2.44
UEFA Women's Champions League	162	50%	19.1%	30.9%	3.63
UEFA Youth League	216	50%	18.1%	31.9%	3.81
V-League	150	43.3%	22.7%	34%	2.71
Veikkausliiga	177	45.2%	26.6%	28.2%	2.57
WC Qualification Europe	60	46.7%	20%	33.3%	3.45
Women's Super League	149	45%	20.8%	34.2%	3.11
World Cup	104	48.1%	23.1%	28.8%	2.96
World Cup Women Qualification Europe	101	46.5%	13.9%	39.6%	3.45
Youth League	229	49.8%	16.2%	34.1%	3.82

How the Match Result Screener Works

Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the model EV is a small tilt on the price rather than a guess against it — and still the model's view, not a proven betting edge.

Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing an EV: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.

Using It With Other Stats

Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.

Match Result Screener